What are the chances an attacker is going to try a "submission" technique?

[Tony Dismukes]

What is a bulldog choke?

If you have someone in a side headlock and they make the mistake of turning their head away from you instead of towards you, they've just put themselves into a bulldog choke.

 

[wab25]

More instinctive chokes such as a rear naked choke, guillotine, or bulldog choke? Those happen. Strangulation or attempted strangulation is unfortunately a pretty common form of domestic violence. It can happen in other forms of assault as well.

If you're prioritizing the sort of attacks you need to be skilled in countering in a self-defense situation, then joint locks would be very low on the list. The common forms of chokes that a non- or minimally trained assailant might use? Those would be higher on the list.

I agree with Tony here. Which is why I suggested learning the basics of ground work, take downs and striking. I am sure that someone has used a 540 tornado kick to attack someone else on the street... but I don't think its as high a probability as someone using a front kick... which I believe is a lower probability than the guy using a hay maker type punch.

Them wrestling with you doesn't help you get your wallet to them, and in fact may make it harder. They are more likely to try to intimidate you, either by shoving you against a wall, brandishing a weapon, or just acting tough and threatening violence. How many people are going to do a double-leg takedown, take side control, flip you into an armbar, and then say "by the way, give me your wallet?" It's an interaction that doesn't really make sense.

If I pull out my karate and punch them in the face with a loud kiai... am I always going to knock him out? If he has any grappling experience, thats when he gets my back or picks me up and slams me. Then he takes my wallet. I guess I was just figuring in what would happen in the situation if my first response technique did not instantly incapacitate the attacker. I guess that means I just need to practice that punch more.

if you search bjj in street fight and end up with dozens of examples from the seven billion population of the world, that doesn't mean its common place

The same 7 billion people have not produced a video yet of no touch techniques working in the street or self defense. Note that I am not concluding from that search, that they do not happen... only that they have not been filmed. That alone is not enough data to say that they definitely do not work. I do conclude that I am more likely to face functional grappling skill than functional no touch skill.

you could if you wanted an informed estimate, consider what % of the counties population study bjj, and then work out how likely you were to even meet/ interact with one in a year, let alone be attacked by one for no reason at all

I did google searches for Orlando, Houston and San Francisco for BJJ schools. I found about 20, 60, and 40 respectively. It has been my experience that finding out that someone has at one point trained, while I was in these cities has been surprisingly easy (not counting going into the martial arts communities there) The OP mentioned submission stuff, not specifically BJJ stuff. If I add searches for Judo, Sambo, and MMA I find a ton more schools in each area.

I conclude that the possibility of my attacker having experience in submissions is higher than 0 and high enough that I recommend learning the basics in ground work. Just like I recommend learning the basics in striking and take downs.

 

[Deleted member 39746]

With the growth of the UFC and BJJ, probbly a damn sight more likely than before at least for a lay person to try and imitate it. But Judo is one of the more popular sports, and if a percentage of that learnt submissions then apply that to this. At least if its a commonly practiced sport in your country. Same with BJJ but all BJJ people learn submissions as far as i know.


How grappling would show up, is if you get charged or thrown on the floor, you should learn them more as a method to get used to getting charged and how to deal with getting charged more than anything or if you slip. I would say you need to follow the MMA mindset and be a good generalist for practical self defence skills, not necessarily to fight against other MMA fighting (all though the chance of fighting somone with some training isnt entirely out of the question, things happen)

And there are no "MMA grappling moves" its what ever styles and systems they learnt grappling from moves, to which some are cross style as there are only X amounts of ways to grapple effectively. But you do need to pressure test yourself and your skillset if you want a good chance of not freezing when actually getting in a confrontation, there is generally no better place than a ameature fight/tournament.

eddendum: i wouldn't necessarily say a proper submission but the chance someone tries something BJJ or MMA esque on you is more likely than before, unless you live in a area with a lot of BJJ/Judo/sub wrestling practitioners.

 

[jobo]

I agree with Tony here. Which is why I suggested learning the basics of ground work, take downs and striking. I am sure that someone has used a 540 tornado kick to attack someone else on the street... but I don't think its as high a probability as someone using a front kick... which I believe is a lower probability than the guy using a hay maker type punch.

If I pull out my karate and punch them in the face with a loud kiai... am I always going to knock him out? If he has any grappling experience, thats when he gets my back or picks me up and slams me. Then he takes my wallet. I guess I was just figuring in what would happen in the situation if my first response technique did not instantly incapacitate the attacker. I guess that means I just need to practice that punch more.

The same 7 billion people have not produced a video yet of no touch techniques working in the street or self defense. Note that I am not concluding from that search, that they do not happen... only that they have not been filmed. That alone is not enough data to say that they definitely do not work. I do conclude that I am more likely to face functional grappling skill than functional no touch skill.

I did google searches for Orlando, Houston and San Francisco for BJJ schools. I found about 20, 60, and 40 respectively. It has been my experience that finding out that someone has at one point trained, while I was in these cities has been surprisingly easy (not counting going into the martial arts communities there) The OP mentioned submission stuff, not specifically BJJ stuff. If I add searches for Judo, Sambo, and MMA I find a ton more schools in each area.

I conclude that the possibility of my attacker having experience in submissions is higher than 0 and high enough that I recommend learning the basics in ground work. Just like I recommend learning the basics in striking and take downs.

again, no one is suggesting no touch skills are any thing other than fantasy,, ???

at the moment your argument is rresembling saying I'm more likely to be knored to death by a polar bear than eaten by a dragon( so I'm including in my training on anti polar bear techniques, as the chance of a polar bear attack is indeed higher than 0, though round here its going to take some really lax security at the zoo and some amazing bad luck, . it's clearly a really really stupid argument your putting forward

 

[Buka]

I think with each passing year more and more people stop in for a cup of coffee in MMA schools. While most don't last long, even training for a few months can give you certain skills you never had before. I'm not talking about the level of skills we all know around here, I'm talking about certain basic fighting skills that the average chump had no idea about before he trained for the few months that he did.

I also think if you profile who walks into these gyms and trains for a few month the majority will be young males. Young males get into more fights than anybody else. Then....let's add one more thing that always leads to a mellow evening - liquor. We all know what that does. And we all know how many young males go through that right of passage.

Times have changed. With the popularity of the UFC and MMA in general, just about everybody knows what a rear naked choke is. I'm not saying they can do it correctly, but I'll bet you every young male has tried it out on his friends while goofing around.

And I'll bet you a lot of young guys who have never set foot in a Martial Arts gym can, and have, done rear naked chokes on people. Then you have certain violent fighting techniques learned in prison. Chokes are high on that list. So are young males.

Some years ago in Law Enforcement training you were no longer allowed to teach cardiovascular restraint holds - rear nakeds and their assorted cousins. So in 03 I wrote a proposal to my bosses concerning the ever growing popularity of MMA and how common a rear naked choke had become among young males of our city. (Boston) I told my boss I wanted to teach my officers how to defend against a rear naked choke. My boss picked up the ball immediately and said to me "So, in order to do that you'll have to pair the men up and show them how to properly do a rear naked choke so they may train to defend it with each other?"
I smiled and said "Exactly".

And that's just what we did.

I think that among all the submission holds you are likely to encounter, a rear naked choke would be at the top of the list.

 

[Headhunter]

Very unlikely imo. Not saying it will never happen but in a anger fuelled attack if you've been taken to the floor and mounted 9 out of 10 times they're going to try and punch you from there not work to set up an arm or roll to a triangle etc. Even in Mma majority of times a guy gets mounted the guy on top throws punches more because going for a submission is risky in case you get rolled over in the process.

Yes chokes happen in fights but mostly from what I've seen its the standard 2 hand throttle more than a rear naked choke or an eziquiel or a cross collar choke

 

[wab25]

at the moment your argument is rresembling saying I'm more likely to be knored to death by a polar bear than eaten by a dragon( so I'm including in my training on anti polar bear techniques, as the chance of a polar bear attack is indeed higher than 0, though round here its going to take some really lax security at the zoo and some amazing bad luck, . it's clearly a really really stupid argument your putting forward

Crime in Chicago - Wikipedia
Crime in New York City - Wikipedia

The violent crime rate (homicide, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) in Chicago is less than 1% (903 per 100,000 people) and in New York it is about 1/2 of 1 percent (565 per 100,000 people). Those percentages are only slightly above 0... So I guess we really don't need to train any sort of self defense... as it is unlikely that we will ever need it. Chances are we will be in the 99% of people never to deal with such things. Is that what you are saying? Are you arguing that odds of meeting an attacker who has experience in submissions are so low, that we shouldn't train the basics in order to defend?

My argument is that if you are training for the unlikely event that you are in the one percent or less that gets attacked... you should cover all the bases with basic training: striking, take downs and ground work. As Tony said, you are most likely to see very basic techniques... but if you have no idea how to counter those very basic techniques, they become pretty effective.

 

[skribs]

Crime in Chicago - Wikipedia
Crime in New York City - Wikipedia

The violent crime rate (homicide, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) in Chicago is less than 1% (903 per 100,000 people) and in New York it is about 1/2 of 1 percent (565 per 100,000 people). Those percentages are only slightly above 0... So I guess we really don't need to train any sort of self defense... as it is unlikely that we will ever need it. Chances are we will be in the 99% of people never to deal with such things. Is that what you are saying? Are you arguing that odds of meeting an attacker who has experience in submissions are so low, that we shouldn't train the basics in order to defend?

My argument is that if you are training for the unlikely event that you are in the one percent or less that gets attacked... you should cover all the bases with basic training: striking, take downs and ground work. As Tony said, you are most likely to see very basic techniques... but if you have no idea how to counter those very basic techniques, they become pretty effective.

False equivalency. If you are training for the 1% of the time you will be attacked, then do you train for the 0.99% of the time you need to defend against basic techniques, or the 0.01% you need to defend against advanced techniques?

 

[jobo]

Crime in Chicago - Wikipedia
Crime in New York City - Wikipedia

The violent crime rate (homicide, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) in Chicago is less than 1% (903 per 100,000 people) and in New York it is about 1/2 of 1 percent (565 per 100,000 people). Those percentages are only slightly above 0... So I guess we really don't need to train any sort of self defense... as it is unlikely that we will ever need it. Chances are we will be in the 99% of people never to deal with such things. Is that what you are saying? Are you arguing that odds of meeting an attacker who has experience in submissions are so low, that we shouldn't train the basics in order to defend?

My argument is that if you are training for the unlikely event that you are in the one percent or less that gets attacked... you should cover all the bases with basic training: striking, take downs and ground work. As Tony said, you are most likely to see very basic techniques... but if you have no idea how to counter those very basic techniques, they become pretty effective.

stastics lie, out if those, a number you will be very lucky to avoid even if you have ma training, so the % of situation you can effect for the better just by fighting back is a lot less than 1% the rest are really about reducing your exposure. or you turn a Robbery into a homicide by fighting back.

so your chance of being able to use your skills to protect yourself is only a fraction of 1 %. the number of these were you're attacker is a trained ma, must therefore be a very small faction of t attacks

then id point out that the vast majority of citizen live long fruitful and mostly happy lives with out ever learning ma at all or at least to any degree. so you( and I) are the odd one out. and you appear to be overly paranoid about how at risk you are

I'm quite likely to get into confrontations,im like that, but even then the number of actual attacks I've suffered in the last 20 years is one and he was just a bozo that got beaten up .

being able to defend myself is phycological benifit not something I'm freting about and certainly not about being choked out

 

[wab25]

False equivalency.

Please explain my false equivalency.

It was pointed out that being attacked by a polar bear is very rare, so you probably don't need to prepare for a polar bear attack, even though it is more likely than a magical dragon attack. I was pointing out that people actually getting attacked is also quite low... as in less than 1%. (where I live the rate of violent attacks is 196 per 100,000 people... way less) If he is arguing that the chances of being attacked by someone with submission skills is slow low that one need not train for it... in reality, most people never get attacked anyway. (nationally the violent crime rate is 383 per 100,000 people)

My second argument is that if you are going to train for that eventuality (even though it is very rare) that you should train the basics of all 3: striking, take downs and ground work. I never mentioned a split between basic and advanced techniques. I would say do 33% on the basics of each (striking, take downs and ground work) ... but I wouldn't argue if you wanted to do 40%, 40% and 20%. But I do feel that quite a few people are familiar enough with basic chokes and pins, as well as basic take downs, just like they can throw hard hay maker punches and the occasional kick. I never said you need to train the advanced submissions... I have always said to learn the basics.

Your original question was "what are the chances an attacker is going to try a submission technique?" The chance of him grabbing you, putting you into a rolling arm bar and then asking for your wallet are extremely low. I think the chances of your first martial response completely taking him out are low. I think the chances of a struggle happening after your first martial response are high. I think being prepared to deal with basic strikes, basic take downs and basic ground work, including basic choke defense, are all valuable in this event.

 

[MetalBoar]

Yeah, I think it depends a lot on what sort of situations you're worried about, where you live, and what your lifestyle choices are like. I grew up in a violent time and place with a lot of unemployment, desperation and gang conflict. I was a young man in that environment and, as @Buka accurately stated, being a young man I found myself unwilling to avoid pool halls, bars and "The Cruise" where I knew trouble might find me.

I saw a lot of fights at that time that fell into "Situation 1" or "Situation 3" and the best self defense against many of them would have been just not getting involved in the monkey dance to begin with. That being said it wasn't always possible to avoid having things turn physical once you'd put yourself in the wrong place to begin with. This was before BJJ was really a thing in the US but high school wrestling was very popular in my home town and I'd say that many, but far from most, of the fights I saw involved someone who applied some measure of actual grappling skills. There was a real culture of violence there and I saw people get seriously injured by grapplers. I think it's also relevant to point out that pretty much every fight I saw involved both sides applying some sort of striking, not always skillfully, and that I saw people get seriously injured from that too. So I think if you're a young hot head who goes places where a lot of other young hot heads are drinking and maybe looking for a fight you might have to worry about facing someone with at least a modicum of grappling skills sooner or later who intends to hurt you with them. The US is a lot less violent now than it was in the late '80's so it might be later rather than sooner if you aren't the sort to start things.

As far as situation # 2 goes, I've only ever once had anyone try to mug me and they were so drunk and incompetent it was funny, and no, it didn't happen in my home town. A number of my friends have experienced muggings and attempted muggings and I can't think of any of their stories that involve grappling of any sort and even when striking occurred it usually wasn't a fight, it was the mugger sucker punching them. A lot the time the muggings involved weapons or it as just a snatch and run. One guy I know had a knife pulled on him in a restroom at a bus station and his wallet taken. Another friend of mine had a guy walk up and put a gun to his head when he was sitting at a red light with his car window down and take his watch and wallet all while telling how everyone knew what was going on and had cell phones but they weren't going to do anything to help him. Same guy had someone grab a package he was carrying and try to run off with it. I've known a couple of women who've had purses snatched, one was just a grab and run, the other got hit by surprise and then had her purse grabbed. Yet another guy (while rather drunk) had his pants pulled down and was pushed into a urinal and got his wallet stolen while he was taking a leak - so I guess some of these were sort of grappling...

 

[jobo]

Yeah, I think it depends a lot on what sort of situations you're worried about, where you live, and what your lifestyle choices are like. I grew up in a violent time and place with a lot of unemployment, desperation and gang conflict. I was a young man in that environment and, as @Buka accurately stated, being a young man I found myself unwilling to avoid pool halls, bars and "The Cruise" where I knew trouble might find me.

I saw a lot of fights at that time that fell into "Situation 1" or "Situation 3" and the best self defense against many of them would have been just not getting involved in the monkey dance to begin with. That being said it wasn't always possible to avoid having things turn physical once you'd put yourself in the wrong place to begin with. This was before BJJ was really a thing in the US but high school wrestling was very popular in my home town and I'd say that many, but far from most, of the fights I saw involved someone who applied some measure of actual grappling skills. There was a real culture of violence there and I saw people get seriously injured by grapplers. I think it's also relevant to point out that pretty much every fight I saw involved both sides applying some sort of striking, not always skillfully, and that I saw people get seriously injured from that too. So I think if you're a young hot head who goes places where a lot of other young hot heads are drinking and maybe looking for a fight you might have to worry about facing someone with at least a modicum of grappling skills sooner or later who intends to hurt you with them. The US is a lot less violent now than it was in the late '80's so it might be later rather than sooner if you aren't the sort to start things.

As far as situation # 2 goes, I've only ever once had anyone try to mug me and they were so drunk and incompetent it was funny, and no, it didn't happen in my home town. A number of my friends have experienced muggings and attempted muggings and I can't think of any of their stories that involve grappling of any sort and even when striking occurred it usually wasn't a fight, it was the mugger sucker punching them. A lot the time the muggings involved weapons or it as just a snatch and run. One guy I know had a knife pulled on him in a restroom at a bus station and his wallet taken. Another friend of mine had a guy walk up and put a gun to his head when he was sitting at a red light with his car window down and take his watch and wallet all while telling how everyone knew what was going on and had cell phones but they weren't going to do anything to help him. Same guy had someone grab a package he was carrying and try to run off with it. I've known a couple of women who've had purses snatched, one was just a grab and run, the other got hit by surprise and then had her purse grabbed. Yet another guy (while rather drunk) had his pants pulled down and was pushed into a urinal and got his wallet stolen while he was taking a leak - so I guess some of these were sort of grappling...

one? of my urban games was to colour photocopy a 50 pound note and walk round the town holding it invitingly in my hand and or putting it down on street side tables!, whilst I drank my coffee, till eventually someone snatched and ran, it always amused me to think of their face when they stopped to look at it al sweaty and out of breath, happy days

 

[Gerry Seymour]

What are the chances an attacker in a self-defense situation is going to try a "submission" technique? I put "submission" in quotes because I don't expect that someone willing to commit violence against me would stop when I tap out, but that they would take the arm bar all the way to snap or a chokehold all the way to a blackout.

Most of the time, when you need to act in self defense, I imagine it is one of two situations:

1. A hothead wants to fight, or someone is reacting emotionally and channels that into aggression and violence
2. Someone wants to coerce you into something (whether that is to do something for them, give something to them, or go with them somewhere)

In Situation #1, I can't imagine that someone on an emotionally-charged rampage is going to want to get into a submission hold. They're probably going to want to get in a position where they can just rain blows on you, because they want to feel the impact of their fists on someone else. Or, if they want to do as much damage as possible, they may have a weapon instead.

In Situation #2, I also don't see a submission hold as an incredibly useful technique. Someone who wants you to go somewhere I think is more likely to simply grab you, or else use coercive tactics like brandishing a knife or a gun, or or else disable with something like a taser or a chemical-soaked cloth.

The reason I bring up this question is because a lot of the discussion I see about self defense curriculums is that they aren't tested in the ring. My Taekwondo self defense skills are not put to the test in the Octagon, so therefore those techniques are unrefined. But I'm thinking, I don't need to defend myself in the Octagon against a pro MMA fighter trying to set up an arm-bar. I need to defend myself against some random person on the street who wants me to give him my wallet or wants to throw me down and then punch or kick me while I'm on the ground.

Am I thinking clearly, here? Is the likely defense situation going to be void of MMA grappling moves? How often would those show up by the attacker in a self-defense situation?

This has long been part of my thought process on my own SD training (and how I teach). We have some reasonable information that people who are developing new skills over time (like MA training) are less prone to violence (whether this is causal or not is unclear, and not really important). That means we're less likely to be attacked by someone who has put real time into training for combat. We might find someone who has a lot of experience with combat, but review of available video doesn't show a lot of submission techniques showing up.

Untrained people tend to use different offensive tactics and strategy than trained people. Even more so if they are also inexperienced.

I think it's useful to train a bit for experienced, skilled, trained people. But not for beginners. Nothing I'm going to teach someone in their first 6 months is likely to change their odds against someone with a few years of good training. Much I can teach in that first 6 months can change their odds against someone who's raging and flailing.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

one thing is generally certain, if they are going to attack you, they believe they have the advantage or they wouldn't do it. you need to be confident in your own mind that they are wrong and then be able to demonstrate that,

They've done the math. We're expecting our training to change the math in ways they don't expect.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

The point was not who was the aggressor... the point was that out in the real world, people have these skills and do use them effectively in real fights.

I don't think he was suggesting the skills were useless. Rather, that not being able to defend against a skilled guard pass (for instance) doesn't make other skills useless.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

If you have someone in a side headlock and they make the mistake of turning their head away from you instead of towards you, they've just put themselves into a bulldog choke. View attachment 22339

Also known as the "trying to talk to students while demonstrating side headlock defense" choke.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

If you have someone in a side headlock and they make the mistake of turning their head away from you instead of towards you, they've just put themselves into a bulldog choke. View attachment 22339

Also known as the "trying to talk to students while demonstrating side headlock defense" choke.

 

[Tony Dismukes]

Also known as the "trying to talk to students while demonstrating side headlock defense" choke.

Best way to avoid this is have the first thing you tell students while demonstrating side headlock defense be an explanation of which way your head should be facing and why.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

Best way to avoid this is have the first thing you tell students while demonstrating side headlock defense be an explanation of which way your head should be facing and why.

That's exactly the first thing I tell them. Unfortunately, I have a habit of trying to look at them as I say it.

 

[paitingman]

Chokes, yes.

You might expect an arm bar now that MMA is so well known.

Maybe off-topic, but takedowns and basic takedown defense, as well as some basic positional grappling skills, are a must.
I feel that the odds of encountering someone with high school wrestling experience are high enough.