Swine Flu, Bird Flu, Who Cares?

[Thems Fighting Words]

When your job (and funding) depends on predicting pandemics I suppose you have to scare the populace every once and a while to keep your job secure.

Im more worried about a "cry wolf" situation than anything else. If these organizations start a "black death" hype each and every time some new pandemic is declared, Im worried people are going to brush off what turns out to be a real threat. They have to create some sort of balanced message. Of course, the media and its thirst for blood isnt helping matters.

Yeah, balance is a big concern. Level-5 actually means a pandemic is imminent. The Spanish flu (which was so deadly because it induced hypercytokinemia and thus targeted the most healthy) was Level-6. The Honk Kong flu which killed one million or so was only Level-2.

 

[elder999]

The funny thing about the much postulated, but as yet to truly materialize "flu pandemic," is that it's not so much a matter of "if," as a matter of "when."

Then again, I live near a large, ostensibly active volcano-the Valles Caldera-which is "due" to erupt. Which could mean NOW, or 6,000 years or so from now....which, geologically speaking, is about NOW, I suppose. :lol:

Not a matter of "if," though-a matter of "when?"

In any case, to recap: this flu is scarybecause no one knows how this particular strain, which combines elements of avian flu with swine flu and is transmitted by humans, actually came to be- or even could have-this is what has health authorities quaking in their boots, though someone I've been in contact with speculates that that big old Mexican pig farm in that region (ConAgra or someone has about 130,000 acres of hogs in the area where this first appeared) had some pigs that ate some infected bird doo-doo.

Odds are good we'll never know, though. IN any case, better that the health control powers that be are overreacting than not reacting at all-and, trust me, they're not over reacting. They're just reacting. Not a whole lot much more that they can do, right now, and the concensus really seems to be "wait until Thanksgiving, when the real flu season starts, and see what happens....."

Someone mentioned "Mexican health care." Actually, as someone who goes to Mexico as often as I can (keep my boat there, have a condo in one place and a house in the town named after one of my ancestor's ships....) I can say that Mexico actually has pretty good health care-good enough that a lot of Americans go there for dentistry, elective surgery, knee and hip replacements, and other things.....I can also add that you can get almost anything over the counter in a Mexican pharmacy-we stay well stocked with broad spectrum antibiotics, tamiflu and....other things.....for my boat, ya see? In any case, Mexico City has really, really, really bad air, and when this first started I theorized that a lot of the people there already have compromised respiratory systems-the kind of people who are susceptible to the complications from the flu that kill (most people whose death is attributed to the "flu," actually die from pneumonia and other complications....). That's one factor, another being the likelihood that most of those that died didn't get medical attention in time, because they didn't seek it in time. By the time they got to the hospital or doctor, they already had pneumonia, and were well on there way.......out.

Whic brings us to the other thing, that most of those people who have died weren't really on the "short list" of people who can die from the flu. Also scary....

The other thing being, of course, that the WHO protocol for positively identifying those who have died from this particular flu-or, rather, complications from this particular flu-is hampered by a variety of things, not the least of which is being unable to obtain tissue samples on those who have been quickly buried or cremated, which, given Mexico's brand of Catholicism, can sometimes be pretty quick.

Additionally, the culture down there is one that allows for quicker transmission of this sort of thing at this time of year: most of my friends there typically offer a kiss on the cheek and a hug along with a handshake. Lots of people go to church. Lots of people meet on the streets and kiss and hug. At church. At school. At the movies.On their rather large public transportation system.

You get the idea. Not nearly as much of that here in the U.S.-in addition to the fact that most of us not only get to the doctor pretty quick (especially under the spectre of "pandemic") but also have pretty good access to the right medications....

In any case, being "scared" is sort of like being "scared" of that asteroid that supposed to hit the Earth-today, tonight? Tomorrow? 11,000 years from now? Not a matter of "if," it's a matter of "when," and if it's now, well, there's not a damned thing most of us can do about it, except what we're told, or think is best......wash, wash, wash, wear a mask for all the good it'll actually do, stay home if you're inclined-avoid public transportation and crowded places.....or, just go on with your life and take your chances.Mostly won't really make any difference......

....in the meantime, though, with apologies to Eric Clapton and Creem, and a nod of the head to Bill Mattocks and Andy Moynihan:

Swine Flu (to the tune of Strange Brew, by Creem)

Swine flu-kill what’s inside of you.
It’s a nasty virus that first came from birds,
then it went to pigs when they ate their turds
bird turds.
Now isn’t that absurd?
Swine flu-kill what’s inside of you.

It’s some kind of demon, made of superglue
if you don’t watch out it’ll stick to you
to you
Now what ya gonna do?
Swine flu-get stuck inside of you.

In a subway car down below some town
It will spread itself till there’s nobody
around
You’d best get outta town!
Swine flu-kill what’s inside of you.

 

[Tez3]

Spent half of yeaterday in a briefing about what we'll do if we have a break outbreak where we are. We have a population of thousands of soldiers so we have the problem if anything infectious arrives of what to do with thousands of sick people! They don't have to be very ill, even ordinary flu or a virus can cause havoc when you have to bed down that many people.
The medical officers aren't concerned too much about the actual swine flu, they are just trying to work out how to look after all those poorly men/boys because everyone knows that 'man flu' is really bad!
The worst thing is the jokes!
"I went to my doctor with the swine flu..he gave me some oinkment and told me to baconing back on Friday" yeah well.

 

[crushing]

Interesting site:

http://www.swine-flu-map-animation.com/

 

[shesulsa]

A university in Oregon is shut down because of a confirmed case of Influenza A, the predetermination for swine flu. There are a few confirmed Influenza A cases in the Seattle area and one in Tacoma and the news said today it could take a week to determine if the strain is the dreaded swine flu.

A week.

Meanwhile, I was driving the main drag yesterday and saw a man sitting on the side of the road in front of a now-closed abandoned small craft airport selling "Swine Flu Masks" from the back of his car.

From Wiki:

On February 5, 1976, in the United States an army recruit at Fort Dix said he felt tired and weak. He died the next day and four of his fellow soldiers were later hospitalized. Two weeks after his death, health officials announced that the cause of death was a new strain of swine flu. The strain, a variant of H1N1, is known as A/New Jersey/1976 (H1N1). It was detected only from January 19 to February 9 and did not spread beyond Fort Dix.[49]

If you go to that article, you can read the problems associated with the vaccination program and read that the vaccine wound up killing more people than the virus did.

From the same article:

In September 1988, a swine flu virus killed one woman in Wisconsin, and infected at least hundreds of others. 32-year old Barbara Ann Wieners was eight months pregnant when she and her husband, Ed, became ill after visiting the hog barn at the Walworth County Fair. Barbara died eight days later, though doctors were able to induce labor and deliver a healthy daughter before she passed away. Her husband recovered from his symptoms.
Influenza-like illnesses were reportedly widespread among the pigs at the fair they had visited, and 76% of the swine exhibitors there tested positive for the swine flu antibody but no serious illnesses were detected among this group. Additional studies suggested between one and three health care personnel who had contact with the patient developed mild influenza-like illnesses with antibody evidence of swine flu infection.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swine_flu#cite_note-55

It's good to remember to keep your mucus membranes moist but clean, especially if you're a medicated allergy sufferer who is drying out right about now.

We are avoiding fast food service and public restrooms and everyone's carrying hand sanitizer.

 

[Thesemindz]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518578,00.html

Signs Point to Milder Swine Flu Outbreak Than Once Feared

As further evidence that this strain of the H1N1 influenza virus is looking a little less ominous, a U.S. health official says it lacks the genes that made the 1918 pandemic strain so deadly.
And a flu expert in New York says there's no reason to believe the new virus is a more serious strain than seasonal flu.

Shocker.

Wait, does this mean the government and the media colluded in creating a false panic? Nah. That'd be paranoid.


-Rob

 

[Archangel M]

I dont think the media "creates a panic" for any reason other than getting ratings.

 

[Bruno@MT]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518578,00.html

Signs Point to Milder Swine Flu Outbreak Than Once Feared



Shocker.

Wait, does this mean the government and the media colluded in creating a false panic? Nah. That'd be paranoid.


-Rob

Not at all paranoid.
I don't believe the government did this 'on purpose'.
The problem is that the general population expects the gov to do something in cases like this. So they start tracking things, issuing warnings, etc.

And of course the press jumps on this and in the absence of any real news, they drumup as much doomsday scenarios as possible, because there is no news like bad news.

Which is exactly why I (and most of the people I know) didn't really care.

 

[Tez3]

I phoned my doctor yesterday as I thought I might have the swine flu but it was a really bad line, all I could get was crackling.

 

[crushing]

And of course the press jumps on this and in the absence of any real news, they drumup as much doomsday scenarios as possible, because there is no news like bad news.

Which is exactly why I (and most of the people I know) didn't really care.

There is real news, real news including what is going on in Pakistan and the increasing violence again in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

[Thesemindz]

I dont think the media "creates a panic" for any reason other than getting ratings.

Are you saying that's an acceptable reason? Or are you just saying that's why they do it?

'Cause it seems kinda obvious they do it.


-Rob

 

[Thesemindz]

There is real news, real news including what is going on in Pakistan and the increasing violence again in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Hmmm. So why, in the presence of real news, like the increasing violence in two countries we have supposedly pacified, or the impending overthrow of an allied state by terrorist forces we chased into their country in the first place, or the failure of major american corporations only weeks after receiving millions in federal aid, would the media and the government focus on a handful of people getting a seasonal illness?

One might think it's because they want us distracted from what's going on.


-Rob

 

[rhn_kenpo]

This whole situation reminds me of the first rainstroms that hit So. California each year. Local news channels go nuts with endless 'stormwatch' coverage and dispatch reporters to stand in front of stormdrains and say things like 'gee, sure is wet out here'.

In short, they predictably lose their minds for awhile. Yes, sometimes we have incredible rains that cause a lot of damage. But the vast majority of the time, they are just spinning what is essentially a non-event.

I struggled to see what was really noteworthy about this flu strain from the very first reports. All flu strains circle the globe, many times. The garden variety annual flu bug kills about 36k US citizens each year, or about 100 per day during flu season. Globally that means about 400+ deaths per day is 'normal'.

And this particular strain was known to health officials in Mexico as early as the first week of March. Had it been a real killer, hospitals in Mexico and the US would have been bursting by the end of March. That didn't happen. The fatality rate of H5N1 remains about 60%, and it does not respond to modern anti-virals. The H1N1 strain does and mortality rates seem about average thus far globally, although they are oddly high in Mexico.

Conditions can change daily, but thus far, media hysteria seems way overdone.

 

[Archangel M]

Hmmm. So why, in the presence of real news, like the increasing violence in two countries we have supposedly pacified, or the impending overthrow of an allied state by terrorist forces we chased into their country in the first place, or the failure of major american corporations only weeks after receiving millions in federal aid, would the media and the government focus on a handful of people getting a seasonal illness?

One might think it's because they want us distracted from what's going on.


-Rob

I think its because the media knows that we (a collective we) tune out stuff like that...threaten us with a "killer flu" that could harm our children and we will tune in....

Follow the money...Ill believe in ratings over some collusion w/ government any day.

 

[Thesemindz]

I think its because the media knows that we (a collective we) tune out stuff like that...threaten us with a "killer flu" that could harm our children and we will tune in....

Follow the money...Ill believe in ratings over some collusion w/ government any day.

Why can't it be both?

If it weren't for the state, the news organizations wouldn't have much to cover, so they have a vested interest in looking out for their friends in government.

But if it weren't for the viewers tuning in to watch the news, they couldn't sell all that expensive advertising.

So it's a win-win. Cover the stories the government wants covered and create a panic. Everybody tunes in to watch your commercials, err, hard hitting news stories, and your pals in D.C. show up on Sunday for interviews, and maybe give you a bailout somewhere down the road if things get tough.

And nobody spends time worrying about the issues that are actually important. The ones that might cost more then 8 lives.


-Rob

 

[Makalakumu]

I dont think the media "creates a panic" for any reason other than getting ratings.

You might be right, but it also could be an overly optimistic way of looking at things. We are just getting to the "someone has to do something phase" so just wait and see.

 

[Thems Fighting Words]

I phoned my doctor yesterday as I thought I might have the swine flu but it was a really bad line, all I could get was crackling.

And so it begins....

My ultra-feminist mother in-law blames men. Seeing as all men are pigs. :mst:

 

[Bruno@MT]

There is real news, real news including what is going on in Pakistan and the increasing violence again in Iraq and Afghanistan.

But the sheople don't care about them -> It won't sell -> It's not front page material.

 

[Archangel M]

You might be right, but it also could be an overly optimistic way of looking at things. We are just getting to the "someone has to do something phase" so just wait and see.

Optimistic?


Lets just say that I don't see "men in black" behind every phone pole.

 

[Makalakumu]

Optimistic?


Lets just say that I don't see "men in black" behind every phone pole.

The nanotech cameras watch from behind the telephone poles...LOL!