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I'll willingly take anyones money, at any odds, against the notion a group of ordinary people, armed with non-miltary weapons and with none of the other kit that makes up part of a modern infantrymans gear, could successfully take on even a squad level engagement with army regulars.
It's an illusion. A comforting one perhaps but an illusion nonetheless. The idea comes from a couple of centuries ago when the disparity between a 'civilian' with a gun and a soldier with a gun was largely a matter of discipline and formation. That no longer holds true.
Which is one of the big reasons we argue that we should be allowed to have the same types of weapons the military has. Which is also why there is a 12+ week wait on AR15 parts right now, and why the AK47 I bought for 250 dollars is selling for almost 1000 here now.
And lets not forget, many of the so-called "Ordinary people" who want these rights are former military. The Military has the latest tech, and would be HARD to beat nowadays because of that, but those are the situations that unconventional warfare has throughout history allowed the underdogs to emerge victorious, even if you have to redefine victory as "Surviving long enough to escape someplace less dangerous."