Foolish Behaviour and the Dunning-Kruger Bias.

[Gyakuto]

The last 3 years have dramatically highlighted that, like entropy, stupidity appears to be increasing in the universe. A unique set of medical and political situations have exposed the sheer depth of foolish ideas that some people hold. It’s been quite bewildering. Then I ran across a couple of articles about the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their own capabilities to think things through to a reasonable conclusion. This was a light-bulb moment for me, because it explained what we witness and can only call stupidity. It seems to invade all aspects of life: the awful manager who thinks they’re wonderful (David Brent) but who’s subordinates can clearly see are totally incompetent. The army general who orders his men to fight against overwhelming odds and wipes them all out. The business person who thinks they can succeed in their failing business if only others would ‘give them a break‘. The incompetent leader of a country, the decision to not protect themselves and save others etc…it all makes sense how this happens….The Dunning-Kruger effect.

The key is to recognise ones own limits and act within them. For example, I was a good academic neuroscientist and have sound, evidence-led opinions on science. But don’t ask me about financial investments, or sporting competitions or the governments latest ideas on corporate taxation because I know my limits.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

While valid, this term has unfortunately become a club to beat other people with. That is, given two points of view will insist the other is a victim of Dunning-Kruger.

There is literally no way to illustrate to a stupid or incompetent person that they are stupid or incompetent, because they will reject all evidence of it and insist it's you who are stupid or incompetent.

Very few people these days seem capable of saying that they lack mastery over any subject, or that they have no opinion, or that they have difficulty understanding a concept. Hubris seems to be at an all-time high. Obviously I cannot exempt myself from that criticism.

I am reminded of the poem, "The Second Coming," by William Butler Yeats.


Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

"Not with a bang, but a whimper."

 

[Gyakuto]

Isn’t the D-K bias discipline specific? The opinion, on general relativity, of my friend, who did his PhD with Stephen Hawking is far more informed and far more valuable than mine. But if we chat about the neural correlates of consciousness, he listens to me! We know our limits and despite his brain being the size of a small planet, he still knows and acknowledges his!

It’s the failure to acknowledge ones limits either through D-K or sheer arrogance that leads to the invalidity of opinion.

Have no particular mastery is very unfortunate, but can be remedied…I mean…we have Youtube 😀😉

 

[Bill Mattocks]

Isn’t the D-K bias discipline specific? The opinion, on general relativity, of my friend, who did his PhD with Stephen Hawking is far more informed and far more valuable than mine. But if we chat about the neural correlates of consciousness, he listens to me! We know our limits and despite his brain being the size of a small planet, he still knows and acknowledges his!

It’s the failure to acknowledge ones limits either through D-K or sheer arrogance that leads to the invalidity of opinion.

Have no particular mastery is very unfortunate, but can be remedied…I mean…we have Youtube 😀😉

I'm pointing out that it's become yet another buzzword. It's all over Twitter. It's been thus rendered meaningless.

 

[Gyakuto]

Ah…I avoid such platforms…the users all display D-K 😉😂

 

[Steve]

The last 3 years have dramatically highlighted that, like entropy, stupidity appears to be increasing in the universe. A unique set of medical and political situations have exposed the sheer depth of foolish ideas that some people hold. It’s been quite bewildering. Then I ran across a couple of articles about the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their own capabilities to think things through to a reasonable conclusion. This was a light-bulb moment for me, because it explained what we witness and can only call stupidity. It seems to invade all aspects of life: the awful manager who thinks they’re wonderful (David Brent) but who’s subordinates can clearly see are totally incompetent. The army general who orders his men to fight against overwhelming odds and wipes them all out. The business person who thinks they can succeed in their failing business if only others would ‘give them a break‘. The incompetent leader of a country, the decision to not protect themselves and save others etc…it all makes sense how this happens….The Dunning-Kruger effect.

The key is to recognise ones own limits and act within them. For example, I was a good academic neuroscientist and have sound, evidence-led opinions on science. But don’t ask me about financial investments, or sporting competitions or the governments latest ideas on corporate taxation because I know my limits.

I don’t think these are necessarily examples of dunning Kruger. They seem as likely to be examples of poor judgement, lack of ability to think under pressure, lack of accountability or a number of other possibilities. Intrinsic to dunning Kruger is lack of self awareness, which is a little harder to identify. As Bill said, it’s become a casual insult… way to disregard contrary opinions, a shorthand for telling someone they are not just incompetent, but also overconfident and not self aware.

 

[Xue Sheng]

I'm pointing out that it's become yet another buzzword. It's all over Twitter. It's been thus rendered meaningless.

so basically people that are accusing other of the Dunning-Kruger bias, are themselves guilty of the Dunning-Kruger bias

 

[Bill Mattocks]

so basically people that are accusing other of the Dunning-Kruger bias, are themselves guilty of the Dunning-Kruger bias

It is incorrect to assert that stupid people will suddenly recognize their stupidity if it is only pointed out to them.

Given someone who is obviously wrong on the internet (lol), one merely has to explain Dunning-Kruger to them and they'll instantly accept how wrong they are.

I was born at night. But not last night.

 

[dvcochran]

For me, it is the stupid vs. ignorant argument. I am ignorant of things all the time.
In regard to this theme, I like the saying "you don't know what you don't know". A shallow statement on the surface but very deep in reality. I use it as a reminder of where I do Not want to be.

 

[Steve]

Isn’t the D-K bias discipline specific? The opinion, on general relativity, of my friend, who did his PhD with Stephen Hawking is far more informed and far more valuable than mine. But if we chat about the neural correlates of consciousness, he listens to me! We know our limits and despite his brain being the size of a small planet, he still knows and acknowledges his!

It’s the failure to acknowledge ones limits either through D-K or sheer arrogance that leads to the invalidity of opinion.

Have no particular mastery is very unfortunate, but can be remedied…I mean…we have Youtube 😀😉

It is definitely discipline specific, and one of the biggest challenges we can see pretty regularly around here is that folks don't recognize when they move from one discipline into another. The most consistent, predictable example of genuine Dunning-Kruger bias is folks who have no expertise with fighting believing that they are experts in self defense. When they post on this forum about how they have techniques that they allege still "work", it is cringeworthy.

I agree completely that there are a lot of great reasons to train in martial arts, and fighting skills may not be among those for a person. No problem at all. But when those same people talk about what will work in a real fight... that's concerning. Or when people who have never been in a fight talk about what works or would work in a fight, that's just not realistic. And for their sake, I hope they never need to use those skills in that context.

 

[harleyt26]

The last 3 years have dramatically highlighted that, like entropy, stupidity appears to be increasing in the universe. A unique set of medical and political situations have exposed the sheer depth of foolish ideas that some people hold. It’s been quite bewildering. Then I ran across a couple of articles about the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their own capabilities to think things through to a reasonable conclusion. This was a light-bulb moment for me, because it explained what we witness and can only call stupidity. It seems to invade all aspects of life: the awful manager who thinks they’re wonderful (David Brent) but who’s subordinates can clearly see are totally incompetent. The army general who orders his men to fight against overwhelming odds and wipes them all out. The business person who thinks they can succeed in their failing business if only others would ‘give them a break‘. The incompetent leader of a country, the decision to not protect themselves and save others etc…it all makes sense how this happens….The Dunning-Kruger effect.

The key is to recognise ones own limits and act within them. For example, I was a good academic neuroscientist and have sound, evidence-led opinions on science. But don’t ask me about financial investments, or sporting competitions or the governments latest ideas on corporate taxation because I know my limits.

You think you know your limits..but the low ability people think they do too.
Not saying you are incorrect. Just saying

 

[Oily Dragon]

People who don't mind testing their limits are the ones who generally avoid this sort of mental swamp. It's the people who enjoy things as-is that get trapped into this sort of comfort loop, and lose their minds when that's threatened. That's how the Comment Section Generation was born. How else are Flat Earth people and Lizard People Conspiracy theorists going to hook up?

Ah…I avoid such platforms…the users all display D-K 😉😂

Pretty much.

Most of social media has turned into a sort of nightmare where Freddy Krueger has been replaced by a never-ending high school debate class in Hell, on all subjects.

 

[Steve]

People who don't mind testing their limits are the ones who generally avoid this sort of mental swamp. It's the people who enjoy things as-is that get trapped into this sort of comfort loop, and lose their minds when that's threatened. That's how the Comment Section Generation was born. How else are Flat Earth people and Lizard People Conspiracy theorists going to hook up?

Pretty much.

Most of social media has turned into a sort of nightmare where Freddy Krueger has been replaced by a never-ending high school debate class in Hell, on all subjects.

Twitter is a weird combination of random survey questions, tricking people into revealing security question answers, amplification of news or opinion stories, pointless arguments made in 480 characters or less, and animal pictures.

What I think is really funny about it is that you can always tell around here who spends a LOT of time posting on Twitter, because their posts are predominately short zingers. They read like mediocre, late night, talk show monologue jokes.

 

[Xue Sheng]

Twitter is a weird combination of random survey questions, tricking people into revealing security question answers, amplification of news or opinion stories, pointless arguments made in 480 characters or less, and animal pictures.

What I think is really funny about it is that you can always tell around here who spends a LOT of time posting on Twitter, because their posts are predominately short zingers. They read like mediocre, late night, talk show monologue jokes.

soooo what is your user name and password....and do you have admin rights....just wondering

 

[Monkey Turned Wolf]

You think you know your limits..but the low ability people think they do too.
Not saying you are incorrect. Just saying

Many don't actually. A lot seem to have the view that they know better than anyone, and don't have (or haven't hit) the limits everyone else keeps talking about.

 

[Steve]

soooo what is your user name and password....and do you have admin rights....just wondering

LOL. More like, your porn name is the name of your first pet and the color of your first car.

 

[Steve]

I seem to recall that the conclusions from the research on this weren't just on the low end. It was a combination of lower competency folks over valuing their expertise and high competency folks undervaluing their expertise. It has been a while, but if you really want to go down the rabbit hole on this, the actual research is available on the web, and it's pretty darn cool.

 

[Dirty Dog]

What I think is really funny about it is that you can always tell around here who spends a LOT of time posting on Twitter, because their posts are predominately short zingers. They read like mediocre, late night, talk show monologue jokes.

One of the easier claims to test. How much do I post on Twitter?

 

[Steve]

One of the easier claims to test. How much do I post on Twitter?

Haha. Can't evaluate that, but we can assess your aptitude for twitter based on the quality of your one-liners.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Haha. Can't evaluate that, but we can assess your aptitude for twitter based on the quality of your one-liners.

But you said you can "always tell"... are you retracting that claim?