Foolish Behaviour and the Dunning-Kruger Bias.

[Steve]

But you said you can "always tell"... are you retracting that claim?

You seem bored. Okay, let's see. I'd say you don't post on twitter much (if at all), but I think you'd be really good at it. You have the needling down pat.

 

[Dirty Dog]

You seem bored.

You sure seem to have a lot of faith in your psychic powers today. I'm holding up a card. Can you tell which it is?

 

[Xue Sheng]

LOL. More like, your porn name is the name of your first pet and the color of your first car.

You forgot ABC12345

 

[Steve]

Back on topic, this article by David Dunning from many years ago is a great read. Long, but worth it. It's a strong baseline for this discussion, at the very least.

We Are All Confident Idiots

The trouble with ignorance is that it feels so much like expertise. A leading researcher on the psychology of human wrongness sets us straight.

psmag.com

 

[Steve]

You sure seem to have a lot of faith in your psychic powers today. I'm holding up a card. Can you tell which it is?

I think it's the joker. Not bored then? Okay.

 

[Oily Dragon]

You sure seem to have a lot of faith in your psychic powers today. I'm holding up a card. Can you tell which it is?

You're not holding up a card...

What do I win?

 

[Dirty Dog]

I think it's the joker. Not bored then? Okay.

You're not holding up a card...

What do I win?

Both wrong. It's the 7 of Hearts.

 

[Oily Dragon]

Both wrong. It's the 7 of Hearts.

 

[Mider]

The last 3 years have dramatically highlighted that, like entropy, stupidity appears to be increasing in the universe. A unique set of medical and political situations have exposed the sheer depth of foolish ideas that some people hold. It’s been quite bewildering. Then I ran across a couple of articles about the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their own capabilities to think things through to a reasonable conclusion. This was a light-bulb moment for me, because it explained what we witness and can only call stupidity. It seems to invade all aspects of life: the awful manager who thinks they’re wonderful (David Brent) but who’s subordinates can clearly see are totally incompetent. The army general who orders his men to fight against overwhelming odds and wipes them all out. The business person who thinks they can succeed in their failing business if only others would ‘give them a break‘. The incompetent leader of a country, the decision to not protect themselves and save others etc…it all makes sense how this happens….The Dunning-Kruger effect.

The key is to recognise ones own limits and act within them. For example, I was a good academic neuroscientist and have sound, evidence-led opinions on science. But don’t ask me about financial investments, or sporting competitions or the governments latest ideas on corporate taxation because I know my limits.

I think with the Internet people think they’re experts on everything

 

[Steve]

I think with the Internet people think they’re experts on everything

Not everything.

 

[Buka]

LOL. More like, your porn name is the name of your first pet and the color of your first car.

Oh hell, I'm Samson Black!

 

[Dirty Dog]

LOL. More like, your porn name is the name of your first pet and the color of your first car.

Lady Rust!

 

[Steve]

Lady Rust!

Just to be clear to everyone, that was intended to be a humorous example of a poll question where people voluntarily reveal answers to common challenge questions on websites. I don’t know if you’re answering truly but I wouldn’t recommend it.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Just to be clear to everyone, that was intended to be a humorous example of a poll question where people voluntarily reveal answers to common challenge questions on websites. I don’t know if you’re answering truly but I wouldn’t recommend it.

My first pet was a Collie named Lady. My first car was a rust bucket from a salvage yard. So yes, an honest answer. Neither of which I use for challenge questions. My answers to challenge questions are actually NOT honest. For the reasons you allude to.

 

[drop bear]

Haha. Can't evaluate that, but we can assess your aptitude for twitter based on the quality of your one-liners.

Yeah but we also associate with Plato or Socrates by their one liners.

It isn't always the author it's the audience.

 

[drop bear]

Back on topic, this article by David Dunning from many years ago is a great read. Long, but worth it. It's a strong baseline for this discussion, at the very least.

We Are All Confident Idiots

The trouble with ignorance is that it feels so much like expertise. A leading researcher on the psychology of human wrongness sets us straight.

psmag.com

By the way this is my issue with anecdotal street evidence/war stories.

Even competent experienced guys just make **** up to sound more professional.

 

[Tez3]

Twitter is a weird combination of random survey questions, tricking people into revealing security question answers, amplification of news or opinion stories, pointless arguments made in 480 characters or less, and animal pictures.

What I think is really funny about it is that you can always tell around here who spends a LOT of time posting on Twitter, because their posts are predominately short zingers. They read like mediocre, late night, talk show monologue jokes.

You mean Twitter isn't just greyhound owners checking to see that the latest weird thing their hound has done is normal for a greyhound? Wow 😃

 

[Steve]

You mean Twitter isn't just greyhound owners checking to see that the latest weird thing their hound has done is normal for a greyhound? Wow 😃

I mean, that's definitely a part of it.

 

[Xue Sheng]

As to twitter..... you're ALL wrong....

Twitter - (of a bird) give a call consisting of repeated light tremulous sounds.

Now you know

 

[Steve]

As to twitter..... you're ALL wrong....

Twitter - (of a bird) give a call consisting of repeated light tremulous sounds.

Now you know

That can’t be right. 😉