1 in 2000 earn their black belt - still true?

[Sukerkin]

{chortles} I am assuming that is humour for effect in your first paragraph, Draven?

I only ask because your second paragraph I agree with entirely i.e. that it doesn't personally matter to me if the chap next to me got his grade too 'cheap'. Tho' it does matter in the overall scheme of things, I would argue; declining standards are a fact of modern life it seems and if the koryu we can slow that a little then that is to the good.

 

[ralphmcpherson]

I think 1% or lower would be fairly accurate on what Ive seen. Injury alone accounts for many people having extended breaks and then never returning. On my first night there were about 15 white belts in my class and only myself and my mate I started with made it to black belt and all the others had dropped out within 12 months. Since then I have seen countless people start and drop out well before black belt. It does seem these days that people want everything now and have little understanding of the concept of actually working for something. When I see potential new members come in to check out our club one of the first questions they ask is usually "how long will it take to get a black belt?" , if the only reason someone starts is to get a black belt then that alone is usually not enough motivation to stick around. Unless there is some true passion there to study an art just because its something they are passionate about then it is just too easy to quit.

 

[Haakon]

Your post reminded me of something else that would make this a very difficult statistic to track. I started TKD with my best friend when we were in high school. Neither of us achieved black belt at that school - we both moved away before getting that rank - but both of us did earn one in other schools.

 

[Bruno@MT]

Then they get to Dan grades and now are expected to teach for free and now have to wait years to be promoted. I'm not saying this is bad or unreasonable, I'm just thinking that this leads to more BB dropouts. A way around this would be to break from tradition (gasp!) and spread the material in 10 dan rankings out through 15, 20, 25, or 30 dan (or maybe extent the kyu grades) grades. It might lead to better retention, and allow the modern American to feel like they are making progress faster, even though they are not.

I disagree here.
The 'rapid' progression at kyu level (in my dojo it's still about a year per kyu) has several results. One of which is perhaps motivating people with a shorter attention span.

One would hope that at dan level, people appreciate the art itself and don't need to be held hands like spoiled children with a short attention span. If people don't appreciate the art itself, then there is no reason why they should be accommodated. Imo, their dropping out is not a loss but a good way to weed out the people who still don't get it.

 

[Xinglu]

I disagree here.
The 'rapid' progression at kyu level (in my dojo it's still about a year per kyu) has several results. One of which is perhaps motivating people with a shorter attention span.

One would hope that at dan level, people appreciate the art itself and don't need to be held hands like spoiled children with a short attention span. If people don't appreciate the art itself, then there is no reason why they should be accommodated. Imo, their dropping out is not a loss but a good way to weed out the people who still don't get it.

I get that, and I don't disagree. But let me play devils advocate for a second:

This is fine if your goal is to find committed and dedicated people, but not if you are looking to create committed and dedicated people. Teaching patience is a very long process. Higher retention means higher opportunities to teach said patience which translates into higher probability of success. It's food for thought. But like I said, if your goal is to train a certain type of person then there is no need to address the issue, but if you are looking to train people to become a certain type of person (your ideal of what an MAist should embody) then the issue should be address in one way or another. It all depends on the goals of the school and the instructor(s).

 

[Bruno@MT]

An odd quirk is that the big 'drop-out' comes when people attain their first dans .

There is a good reason for that. Or rather, a perfectly human reason: focus.
People are so focused on getting their black belt, working up to the test with all their passion. And when they pass the test... they suddenly lose that focal object.

I've seen this with other things as well: people who spend a lot of time and effort to achieve something, and then fall into the black hole when they reach it. I've seen people who worked their asses off for 30 years in order to buy a retirement home in Spain. Finally they have the money, buy the property, move there, and then discover that they have no idea on what to do anymore.

This happens if you are a parent and your kids leave the house. It's called empty nest syndrome. My mother anticipated it, and she found the solution. At the time when she had the most work with me and my siblings, she started book restoration classes. It made an already busy schedule even busier, but we all made an effort and she persevered. The kids have all left the house, but she is still busy with book restoration. She is a master at restoration, teaches the restoration class, has a small business in restoring antiques, and has her own pet projects (like restoring 16th century bibles) which consume all of her time.

The trick to beating the shodan syndrome (as we call it) is to make sure that before you work up to the test, you are looking at the target beyond the test, and treat the shodan test simply as an obstacle in getting to that other thing.

 

[Stac3y]

We lose a lot of students before they make it to black belt. It's hard work (especially after the first few ranks), and our brown and black belt tests are very strenuous. I couldn't give you exact stats, but we are a huge school (800+ enrolled at any given time--mostly kids, though), and last year we had 5 adult candidates test for black. Four of those passed.

 

[Carol]

As an anecdote, I have met a few BBs either in person, or had a chance to get to know them online that have left their school after 1st black, but not because they have felt black is black, now they are done. The most common reason to me seemed to be differences with their instructor over what a black belt's responsibilities (and requirements) truly are.

The most common one that I have seen has been over teaching...who is doing it, how much, and who is paying who. Another is the outside-the-dojo demands, be it running requirements for a test or community projects to bring in new students.

 

[SahBumNimRush]

I really have no idea how accurate those numbers are, but I'd say it would depend on a few things such as...

1) the school

2) the teacher

3) the person

Let me clarify the above. The school, because its a fact that there are schools that give out black belts much easier than others. In addition to giving them out easier, they dont seem to have any standards as far as age goes. The teacher because if all they care about is getting as many black belts in their school as they can, with no regard for quality, of course, they'll have more than say a teacher who is more strict on standards. The person because many drop out. They dont have a desire to put in the blood, sweat and tears to earn the rank.

I have to agree. I cannot speak for others, but in our school the numbers are more like 1 in 100 earn their black belt. Our overall numbers are small (we don't run a mcdojo), and it takes atleast 3 years to earn a black belt in our Dojang. For a variety of reasons there is a high attrition rate in our dojang. For many, they graduate h.s. and go away to college.. . For others their job transfers them out of the area. Then there are those that either lose the motivation/inspiration.. .

The more interesting fact is that, in our dojang, for every 1 in 100 that earn their black belt, only 1 in 200 seem to earn a higher degree. Many set their goals of earning a black belt and see their goal through only to "move on."

IMHO, colored gup ranks are akin to early childhood (i.e. you learn to crawl, walk, run, speak, etc.. .) and black belt ranks start you actual schooling/education.

 

[Xue Sheng]

I wonder… does that 1 in 2000 include those that study Traditional Chinese Martial Arts that do not have any belt ranking system what-so-ever

 

[punisher73]

I still think that the 1 in 2000 holds true.

The problem is that the statistic doesn't account for 1) schools that guarantee a bb in one year (that includes dojos in Japan under the JKA that offer a college course and are granted a blackbelt at the end of the year) 2) Does that include students that show up for a free class or two and then stop coming?

I think about how many students I've had that only showed up one or two classes after saying that they wanted to study and I truly believe that the number is that high. Especially when you count all of the schools in a large urban area that has a high population or classes that are run through a community education program that advertises in 8 week sessions. Community Ed programs have a HUGE turnover rate each 8 weeks.

 

[jda]

Of all the students when I started in 1999, there are maybe five remaining and the other two only come rarely. Three of which are now instructors. Not counting the little kids, there have probably been 150 students that dropped out. If you count the little kids, that number changes to probably 300. Most seem to make it to green belt and quit. I think its because the training requirements get tougher from there and unless they're serious they don't want to stick around.
Jim

 

[Balrog]

An odd quirk is that the big 'drop-out' comes when people attain their first dans .

And that's sad, because that's like quitting after you graduate from high school. The journey from White Belt to First Degree is where you learn the basics. At First Degree, you start learning the art.

 

[Haakon]

I'm sure a very large percentage drop off after getting first dan. I did and only trained very sporadicly at a few different schools for over 20 years after earning 1st dan. Now I'm back in full swing (except for my knees - ouch), my main goal isn't to attain another black belt though, if it happens great, but that's not my goal.

I came across a PDF from some school "Karate Connection" who figured out 3% of people who pass their first test end up reaching black belt. Since they see roughly 50% drop off at each rank I suppose that would mean maybe 1.5% who start earn their black belt - that is pretty close to the 1% many have suggested here.

Here is the PDF they put up on this topic: http://www.karateconnection.com/Newsletters/IKCA37.pdf

 

[Blade96]

i wanna be one of those people who earn their black belt and really start training

 

[Shawn-San]

I agree, the 1% mark sounds about right. Of all the students in my original class I can honestly say that not a single one of them is still around.
My sensei would attest to a number slightly lower than 1%. I'm sure he's seen many more students than he would care to see, just come and go.

 

[Master Stallion]

My teacher has a website for his new school in Melbourne florida. He has a blog and recently discussed his frustration with what he called the "blackbelt factory" type schools. There are many schools where someone can earn a blackbelt in 3-4 years. In our opinion, even people that train 3-5 days a week should not be able to earn a respectful BB in that short amount of time, especially considering that many people consider that rank the end of the road. It has been explained to me that earning a BB signifies the beginning of the journey and we do not promote people to a teaching rank (1st yellow sash in our system) until we feel they are capable of explaining technique as well as perform the movements. There is simply just too much to learn CONCEPTUALLY to have a BB in 3 years. Having a BB in my eyes, is a lot more then being able to perform movements/techniques, but the student must be able to explain them anatomically, physiologically, physically, and geometrically...etc etc.
Any way, this is my teacher's website. Click on Blog and feel free to post.

www.traditionaltempletraining.com

 

[Master Stallion]

Its nice to see that several of us (meaning on the martial talk community) recognize that obtaining a black belt is the beginning. Where I come from, not my school but the region, I find that many people drop out or become minimally involved after obtaining their BB. I am encouraged by the people of this community that seem to understand that earning that rank is when the fun truly begins. I think that the term "black belt" almost has a negative vibe to it these days because of this... People have minimal respect for the rank because they either know someone who got their blackbelt in middle school or they got one themselves when they were a child (or teenager). I personally feel that there should be a distinction made somehow nationally between a "child" or "sporting" blackbelt and an "adult" or "combative" blackbelt.
My out door school never made the distinction and would simply not rank someone as a teacher until they were able to understand conceptually. We just don't feel that we have ever seen a 14-15 year old that is able to understand the science "art" enough to promote to the high standard of blackbelt we hold. I do not think that may be the best way either.
Any thoughts?

 

[Steve]

Many, many, years ago I read an article in (I think) Black Belt that said only 1 in 2,000 people who start the martial arts continue with it until they earn a black belt. I have no idea if that was accurate back then, I know I've seen a lot of people start and drop out over the years. Does anyone know if that statistic is still accurate today? With so many complaints about lower testing standards, buying black belts and so on has that number really changed? There are so many different schools, different requirements, people who exaggerate rank I'd think it would be extremely difficult to accurately get this number, but maybe someone has.

I'm simply curious, no other reason.

You know, reading some of the other posts in this thread, I'd say that in BJJ 1 in 2000 is actually a little generous. I've been training for over three years now in BJJ. In that time, I'm sure that at least 2000 people have come and gone, excluding those who continue to train, and my instructor has only promoted 4 brown belts. Not even one black belt yet. I'd guess it's 1 in 500 or more to even get to blue belt.

 

[Grenadier]

It all depends on what a particular school / system / instructor thinks a black belt should be.

If the above believes that a black belt should be given to only be those who are instructor-class material, then the number could very well quite high.

If the above thinks that a black belt should representative of someone who has a strong grasp of the fundamentals and is now ready to begin the truly advanced training, then the number should be significantly lower.

As SteveBJJ pointed out, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu uses a different ranking system, where the blue belt is awarded to those who are ready to take on the more advanced training. Thus, a shodan black belt in BJJ would be around the same category as a sandan in other martial arts systems in the latter class I described. Nothing wrong with either method, as long as you compare apples to apples, and avoid comparing apples to oranges (or winesaps to golden delicous, etc).

In the end, once you reach the high level dan rankings, there shouldn't be much of a difference between the two methods.


I've been in dojos where the ratio has varied from 1:20 to 1:100. There are difference circumstances to each school, though. For example, do you teach at the various elementary schools? If so, you're going to have a smaller percentage of those students reaching shodan than you would if you were teaching at a commercial-only school. Kids, after all, are going to be less disciplined as a whole, if my experiences are representative of what goes on.

By the way, there's *nothing* wrong with teachinng at the elementary schools. This is a great way to get more students into your commercial dojo, and you're doing a good thing for the community.