1 in 2000 earn their black belt - still true?

[Haakon]

Many, many, years ago I read an article in (I think) Black Belt that said only 1 in 2,000 people who start the martial arts continue with it until they earn a black belt. I have no idea if that was accurate back then, I know I've seen a lot of people start and drop out over the years. Does anyone know if that statistic is still accurate today? With so many complaints about lower testing standards, buying black belts and so on has that number really changed? There are so many different schools, different requirements, people who exaggerate rank I'd think it would be extremely difficult to accurately get this number, but maybe someone has.

I'm simply curious, no other reason.

 

[Big Don]

At my school, no, that number isn't true. I'm testing for (Oh, holy crap) my black belt in May, and while many have started and quit in the time I've been training, there haven't been 2000...

 

[seasoned]

A lot had to do with shear numbers. In the late 50s and early 60s dojo in the NE were far and few between. The mental fortitude it took to obtain a black belt, was very rigorous. Sensei then, were unwilling to promote someone to black belt based on technique alone, but also the ability to absorb a lot of abuse. I am not saying it is easier now, but then, safety was not paramount to the dojo or the student. Black belt now is based on a lot more then just the ability to fight well. It is hard to tally numbers, but there are more opportunities in this day and age, to obtain black belt.

 

[seasoned]

At my school, no, that number isn't true. I'm testing for (Oh, holy crap) my black belt in May, and while many have started and quit in the time I've been training, there haven't been 2000...

Thanks for sharing, Big Don. Good luck.:asian:
.

 

[Sukerkin]

I can't attest that the 1-in-2000 ratio has ever been strictly true but can confirm from personal observation that as few as 1% of any given 'intake' persevere to the end of the beginning.

In the JSA, it is a different ball-game, so to speak. People who start the sword arts are generally more mature and have a better idea both of what the art will demand of them and, more importantly, what they are seeking to get from it. So 'retention' rates tend to be much higher. An odd quirk is that the big 'drop-out' comes when people attain their first dans .

 

[cdunn]

I can't attest that the 1-in-2000 ratio has ever been strictly true but can confirm from personal observation that as few as 1% of any given 'intake' persevere to the end of the beginning.

In the JSA, it is a different ball-game, so to speak. People who start the sword arts are generally more mature and have a better idea both of what the art will demand of them and, more importantly, what they are seeking to get from it. So 'retention' rates tend to be much higher. An odd quirk is that the big 'drop-out' comes when people attain their first dans .

I think the first dan drop out happens in a lot of arts. People go in with the goal of 'I'm going to get my black belt', and they never replace the goal. I had a pretty large dan classing, maybe a half dozen people from my immediate school, and a half dozen more from our sister schools. I suspect that seven months from now, I will be the only one from my school testing for 2nd dan, maybe 2-4 from the other schools.

 

[Haakon]

At my school, no, that number isn't true. I'm testing for (Oh, holy crap) my black belt in May, and while many have started and quit in the time I've been training, there haven't been 2000...

Good luck on your test! 1:2000 does seem like a very large number, I didn't see 2,000 people go through my school while I was training either - there were many, but I don't think near 2000.

 

[Senjojutsu]

Also remember that “drop out” does not imply flunk out.

Too much semantics on a Sunday morning?
Maybe, but this reminds me of the old tale of the Dean of Students addressing an incoming college freshmen class saying; “look to the person to your right and look at the person to your left and take heed that one of you will not be here in four years to graduate.”

In other words to put the fear of Gawd into them and get them to study their books!!! While that statistic may have been in fact valid – it was a ruse in perception – that one-third of the future graduating class would be flunking out. If that was truly the case, the college admissions office would not be doing proper screening. Students will leave (that college) for variety of reasons over those four years.

So getting back to martial arts – the same thing applies. Sometimes students do leave after maybe flunking a rank examination, BUT they also leave for a variety of many other reasons. Take job change/loss, other life changes just for examples. Hell, maybe after a few months of training they realize their instructor is an arrogant dickhead only after their tuition money.

 

[theletch1]

1% sounds about right to me. For every one I've seen make it to dan I've seen 99 drop out. The number that make it to ni dan might actually be closer to the 1-2000 range though.

 

[Haakon]

I can't attest that the 1-in-2000 ratio has ever been strictly true but can confirm from personal observation that as few as 1% of any given 'intake' persevere to the end of the beginning.

1 in 100 seems more likely today, which is still a pretty small number, a lot lower than the number of people who start college who end up getting a bachelors degree, I've seen that number (averaged across all schools) was 60%.

In the JSA, it is a different ball-game, so to speak. People who start the sword arts are generally more mature and have a better idea both of what the art will demand of them and, more importantly, what they are seeking to get from it. So 'retention' rates tend to be much higher. An odd quirk is that the big 'drop-out' comes when people attain their first dans .

I will admit, I dropped out after getting my first dan in TKD. I was going to college and the school I trained at to black belt was a two hour drive away. I've thought it would be interesting to see how many who earn their first dan ever go on to 2nd.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

I don't know what the percentage might be at my dojo, but I would guess it's reasonably high. I am a green belt, going on 2 years training now. I've seen an awful lot of people start and drop out in that time. And some (perhaps most) were more gifted than me; they caught on faster and it seemed to come much easier to them than to me.

I'm guessing, but I think that a lot of those who quit do so because they find real martial arts training different than what they expected it to be. I'm not sure what they were imagining, but it's a lot of hard, repetitive work, and some of it can be a real slog to get through. Or perhaps they just have different priorities, or maybe their job situation changes or they move away.

I am also told by the more senior members that there have been a number of people who stay long enough to make black belt and then leave, also for reasons unknown. And it takes a lot of dedication to make black belt in my dojo; average time from seven to nine years. To make it that far and then quit kind of baffles me; but this is what I'm told happens. Some quit, I am told, to start their own dojos (even though a Shodan is in no way qualified to teach or promote in our style). Others just stop coming. Some still show up from time to time, maybe a couple times a year, but they've been Shodan or Nidan forever. I guess that's all they want out of the training, which is fine if that's what they want.

On a more general note, it seems to me that people in general have a much lower patience for anything. Everything in our society is based on now, not later. Credit now, college degrees now, martial arts belts now. The very notion that something worth having is worth working hard and patiently waiting for is anathema. One even sees it here on MT to some degree, although I think most here understand that quality training takes time. I've been told that "Seven to nine years to black belt? That's a bit much, don't you think?" No, I don't think so; in fact, I'm rather glad of it. It makes it that much more valuable and real to me. If it wasn't hard to get, what would be the point?

I probably would have been one of those impatient people who wanted everything now not later if it had not been for the Marine Corps. It was there that I learned self-discipline and realized that yes, I can do nearly anything if I want it badly enough and am willing to do what it takes to get there. At the age of 47, I started MA training. I'm not quitting, and younger guys in better shape are starting behind me, catching up to an passing me, and then quitting. I continue to progress. Why? I dunno, I guess because I don't mind pain, I'm not in a hurry, and I know what I want. One foot in front of the other, I just keep plodding towards my goal. And Shodan isn't my goal, either, so I won't stop there.

 

[Haakon]

Also remember that “drop out” does not imply flunk out.

Too much semantics on a Sunday morning?
Maybe, but this reminds me of the old tale of the Dean of Students addressing an incoming college freshmen class saying; “look to the person to your right and look at the person to your left and take heed that one of you will not be here in four years to graduate.”

In other words to put the fear of Gawd into them and get them to study their books!!! While that statistic may have been in fact valid – it was a ruse in perception – that one-third of the future graduating class would be flunking out. If that was truly the case, the college admissions office would not be doing proper screening. Students will leave (that college) for variety of reasons over those four years.

So getting back to martial arts – the same thing applies. Sometimes students do leave after maybe flunking a rank examination, BUT they also leave for a variety of many other reasons. Take job change/loss, other life changes just for examples. Hell, maybe after a few months of training they realize their instructor is an arrogant dickhead only after their tuition money.

I agree 100% John, if I implied 'flunk out' I didn't mean to. I'm sure people leave both for many of the same reasons, and not being able to pass the test is surely not the only reason.

 

[terryl965]

I will add this to the mix how many of the BB are truely BB's are just a product of mass marketing. See at my school it takes five to six years to get there, some other places it is like 18 months. If you consider all these 18 months places the number would probaly be a greater percentage, as they say time is money so alot of people go the fast track and get a piece of paper declaring them a BB.

 

[Blade96]

See at my school it takes five to six years to get there

same in my school.

about as long no, a little bit longer than it takes to earn a university degree (which is 4 years on average)

I heard the 1 in 100 will make BB average too. that sounds right to me.

 

[Omar B]

It's a number they sell to people to make you stand in awe of black belts. If only one in 2000 earned the rank then there would be a lot less schools, and a lot less black belts in schools. Heck, there wouldnt even need to be a specific black belt class since a regular school with about 200 total students would only have one black belt, the sensei.

 

[MJS]

Many, many, years ago I read an article in (I think) Black Belt that said only 1 in 2,000 people who start the martial arts continue with it until they earn a black belt. I have no idea if that was accurate back then, I know I've seen a lot of people start and drop out over the years. Does anyone know if that statistic is still accurate today? With so many complaints about lower testing standards, buying black belts and so on has that number really changed? There are so many different schools, different requirements, people who exaggerate rank I'd think it would be extremely difficult to accurately get this number, but maybe someone has.

I'm simply curious, no other reason.

I really have no idea how accurate those numbers are, but I'd say it would depend on a few things such as...

1) the school

2) the teacher

3) the person

Let me clarify the above. The school, because its a fact that there are schools that give out black belts much easier than others. In addition to giving them out easier, they dont seem to have any standards as far as age goes. The teacher because if all they care about is getting as many black belts in their school as they can, with no regard for quality, of course, they'll have more than say a teacher who is more strict on standards. The person because many drop out. They dont have a desire to put in the blood, sweat and tears to earn the rank.

 

[Carol]

I think its realistic to say 1 in 2000 Americans have a black belt.

That means in a city of (say) 50,000 there are 25 individuals who earned a black belt at some point in their life.

As far as the schools, I would wager that on average, it is higher than 1 percent....and that is a good thing.

I don't have a black belt yet, and I am nowhere close. I don't think anyone that earned one would attest that it was easy, but all of you who have are proof that it is doable, with effort.

Schools are going to have some turnover. That is a part of life. MA wasn't what they thought, something else became more of a priority, or the student can't train any more because of a change in job/location/income.

However, if a school has a lot of churn....that to me speaks more of mismanagement: not managing expectations, not fulfilling commitments, not having control over the class, misconduct, etc.

 

[Xinglu]

Something else to consider is that as the years pass the more popular MA becomes. This means more students. More student means more BB rankings.

Alot of what I've seen as BB level drop outs on the TCMA are the younger students. The ones who started at 7 are now 20 and out of their parents home, and no longer can afford to go, or can quit without taking flak from the parents.

These numbers change a lot more once you get into the Korean and Japanese arts. The only reason I can think of is the Dan ranking system in combination with what Bill has pointed out: American impatience. The Kyu system seems to give the impatient person promotions in what "most" see as "reasonable" time frames. Then they get to Dan grades and now are expected to teach for free and now have to wait years to be promoted. I'm not saying this is bad or unreasonable, I'm just thinking that this leads to more BB dropouts. A way around this would be to break from tradition (gasp!) and spread the material in 10 dan rankings out through 15, 20, 25, or 30 dan (or maybe extent the kyu grades) grades. It might lead to better retention, and allow the modern American to feel like they are making progress faster, even though they are not.

On the TCMA side we tend to see different rates, usually if they are going to drop out it is in the begining. In Neijia training, we don't use sashes, we don't have uniforms, and sometimes it will take a student a year (sometimes longer) to move past the first form. My Shifu does not give certificates or any physical thing to wear or hang on the wall. If you train with him long enough, he will give you his blessing to teach and assist him in classes where he can't make it to. We have 11 students. 5 have been with him for over 10 years, the newest, 6 months. When I was doing CLF we all wore the same color sash and uniform. We got nice certificates for each level, but the advancement was slow and the material almost overwhelming to get through. So again, most who were going to leave did so in the first year.

In both of those cases the slow advancment is/was pointed out to perspective students and we lost/lose more students at the door then we ever did after they joined. But more recently it seems more common for dojos/Dojangs/guans to offer a trial week for free. With this implementation I think that the number who stick through it to BB has drastically increased and the number who never sign up has increased.

 

[Draven]

I think 1 in 2,000 is grossly exagerated... I'd say 1 in 10 make it to black belt & past that 1 of 10 of those persue it any further. As for the "true black belt Vs market black belt" arguement, who cares..?

I mean, I understand that its human nature to compare things but its never what the other guys are doing that matter it what you're doing that matters. You see it a lot more on the net, but really all the comparing just distracts people from training...

 

[IcemanSK]

I've trained in several types of schools in two different states. No two have been the same in this regard.

I used to teach at a community center one mile from where I currently run my school. I had very few of my students come with me when I moved nearly two years ago. Since then, a few of those have left. I have a few of those remaining. While none are yet BB's, I still wonder how it will be when that time comes.

I would say that 1% will stay to black belt. Among the 12 friends I trained with in college, only 2 of us are still training 20 years later. Both of us are school owners. Our results are really not typical.