I understand what makes people cringe when they hear statements like "i will get my black belt next year" but let's be honest, a good teacher won't let a student test unless he feels the student is ready, and if the teacher had been giving feedback indicating that the progress is good and the test will likely happen next year, then the test will likely happen next year and the student will likely pass.
The student still needs to bring his top game to the test and still needs to prove his mettle, and it should not be a guarantee just for showing up, but it will likely happen.