Iran sends rare letter to US over killed scientist

billc

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We'll see how much fun Iran is if they actually become armed with a nuclear weapon. Countries no longer have to invade other countries to be really bad actors.
 

Ken Morgan

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It's late, I'm going to bed now...I have to get up in 6 hours, so I have no idea if any of what i've written below makes any sense.

Issues with Iran are many.

The extremists within the country including the President have said categorically that Israel needs to be destroyed. Now as crazy as some of these folks are, they are not stupid, any nuclear attack on Israel or any conventional attack that threatens the state of Israel itself, will result in nuclear multiple strikes by Israel. The Jewish people will never again allow themselves to go peacefully to their deaths, they will go down fighting.

Iran has as a nation-state has financed terrorist activities around the world, resulting in the death of thousands. The thought of such people having a nuclear bomb and having the ability to ship it on a container ship to London or New York, scares the hell out of me.

Iran is not Iraq, any military action would be difficult. Iran is a very large, heavily mountainous country, Iraq on the other hand is a very flat country, great for air wars. Again the Iranians are not stupid, they learned many lessons watching what happened/happens in Iraq and Afghanistan. They stand no chance in a head to head fight, and they know this. They will switch to terrorist and guerrilla tactics very quickly and draw out any conflict for years.

40% of the population is not Persian. There is a serious and well organised opposition in Iran, any attack on Iran may well force the Opposition into siding with the government to deal with an external threat. I believe some elections are coming up, any attack now will guarantee a victory for the current regime, better to wait a bit and see what happens. The issue is of course Israel may well go off and do whatever the hell it wants/needs to do, dragging the rest of us into a conflict that will be much more expensive in terms of men and materials then Iraq of Afghanistan ever were.
 
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