For those who study martial arts as a means of self-defense (up to and including firearms) I would think those odds would be far different then for those who don't. I would hope so anyway (otherwise that's a lot of class time wasted : )
OK, I'm assuming most people are pretty rational, at least when it comes to risk/reward. I'm assuming criminals are similar.
If the advice and the mindset in dealing with an attacker is to give them what they want in hopes that you will be spared any violence, then the risk to a criminal is very minor.
At what point in raising that risk, does the risk become a deterrent? If more people fought back on a regular basis, does the action eventually become not worth the risk?
Now taken as an individual, this is a rather suicidal train of thinking into action. If I fight back rather than acquiesce, I get hurt or killed. We often talk about the fact that it's not worth the twenty bucks or whatever to get killed over, and on individual basis of a man with a wife and kids, I totally agree.
However... how about as a member of a community?
That brings back the original question...
Would I be willing to fight back, possibly dying, knowing that you would also be willing to fight back, possibly dying, knowing that by our actions, we have made it so dangerous to the assailant that he's either been killed himself or at least given up (or possibly been caught because now the seriousness of his crimes his a lot higher, garnering more focus from LE)
Or in short, my willingness to fight back and risk my own life may cost me my life, but may save someone else's down the road.
Would I do that?
... and that's why I think a lot of it would depend on those odds. If the odds of being killed in an attack are very high, even if I hand over my wallet. It may be worth it to fight. If the odds of dying if I fought back are very high but the odds of surviving very low, then it's not worth it even in the long run.
Anyway, just trying to think not as an individual martial artist but where does being a martial artist place me in the community of people around me, and what am I willing to do for their sake