Will there be a revolution in Iran?

Joab

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And what should the USA and the rest of the world do about the developments in Iran? I am hoping this all leads to positive change in Iran, more freedom, and certainly thousands of Iranians are saying live free or die! Their putting all on the line for more freedom. I think President Obama is handling this well so far, change in Iran must come from within, while asking the Iranian government to stop the violence against its citizens. All opinions appreciated.
 

girlbug2

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If only there really was a way to determine what the true majority thinks and believes. If there was a way to know this with any reasonable certainty, I'd say let's help their revolution. But how can we conclude that the outspoken protestors are really in the majority? Please God not another Iraq..
 

Bruno@MT

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At this moment, I am thinking: yes. I think enough people want progress and to get rid of the fundies running the country. I think enough of a movement is going that the people will have their way. The iranian government is trying to stomp down on the resistance, but atm they cannot prevent media leaks. And the harder they stomp down, the more moderates will switch sides to the rebels.

The best thing -we- can do is to stay out of it until the dust settles. This is an internal affair. This is about the will of the people of Iran. Not about our opinion.
 

searcher

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I think one will happen.

I think we are already doing enough to help the people out. We let the people know that are here for them AFTER.




AFTER we take care of ourselves.
 

Ken Morgan

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There has been an underground revolution/opposition in Iran for years. This election just proved to them that they can no longer work within the legal frame work.

The world should do as little as possible, any form of support from the West will unify all the nuts, and they will be able to say that the rioters are tools of the West, and react more harshly then they are now. This is about the Persian people becoming free for the first time in many, many decades. It was only a matter of time, eventually all police states collapse.
 
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Joab

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Well, there is the question regarding whether or not some covert help to the resistance should be implemented by the USA, perhaps some technical help to help the resistance overcome the media blackout imposed by the Iranian government. Of course it does seem like the people in Iran are doing a good job getting the images out through twitter and facebook and the like, and covert ops seem to always get exposed eventually. We certainly can pray for the Iranian people and hope that a change for the better will come out of all of this.
 

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Oppression can only stand as long as the people allow it to. Freedom is a God given right, and once people have been exposed to it, it is just a matter of time, for nature to take it's course. With freedom, comes great responsibility, and that responsibility is freedom of choice, of which dictators want no part of.
 
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Ken Morgan

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Well, there is the question regarding whether or not some covert help to the resistance should be implemented by the USA, perhaps some technical help to help the resistance overcome the media blackout imposed by the Iranian government. Of course it does seem like the people in Iran are doing a good job getting the images out through twitter and facebook and the like, and covert ops seem to always get exposed eventually. We certainly can pray for the Iranian people and hope that a change for the better will come out of all of this.


Come on....I would bet my $$ that Western funds have been flowing into Iran these last few decades, enough to help, but not enough to piss of people or draw attention to it.
 

elder999

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What we're seeing right now in Iran is revolution. The real question is will it be successful?

Sadly, I don't think so-I think we're seeing another Tianmen in Tehran, and I don't think it's due to a lack of support from outside, including the U.S-it's an open secret that we've been in contact with "moderate factions" in Iran for quite some time. Unfortunately, I think Iran is much like the U.S.: we see a lot of people passionately demonstrating, and, of course, we'd like to see their side succeed, but-as hard as it may be to believe-there's another side that fully supports the current regime in Iran, and their agenda, and that side has something like the same number of people-maybe a little more, maybe a little less:maybe a little more than a little less, but not enough to make a difference right now.

This time.
 

Ken Morgan

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Human life is valued differently in different parts of the world.

The quite revolutions in Eastern Europe worked because the Leaders thought massive military force to crack down was repugnant. In China, they lived by a different standard, you will see China become a democracy in a decade or so, through reasonably peaceful means. Just keep pushing a little bit at a time and eventually you will get there. Tortoise and the Hare.

In Iran, where the nuts advocate suicide bombings, where they export crazies around the world to die, where they do not believe in human rights, where they believe/teach that if you die in our cause you will go to paradise, they will in all likelihood crack down very hard. The protesters have not been fighting back much, but if they get their hands on some weapons.youre going to see a great deal of bloodshed, one way or another, before its all over.
 

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Well, there is the question regarding whether or not some covert help to the resistance should be implemented by the USA, perhaps some technical help to help the resistance overcome the media blackout imposed by the Iranian government. Of course it does seem like the people in Iran are doing a good job getting the images out through twitter and facebook and the like, and covert ops seem to always get exposed eventually. We certainly can pray for the Iranian people and hope that a change for the better will come out of all of this.

No, all of us should stay right out of it. No more covert ops even if they mean well, too much damage has been done in the past in various countries as it is by interference. Not up to us to help decide who should be in charge, it's up to the Iranians themselves.
We can certainly pray for them but not to have things happen that suit us not them.
Oh and no bloody missionaries sent there either.
 

searcher

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Tez3 has the right idea. WE should all be able to see how our last covert help turned out. It led to the current regime being in control.
 

Scott T

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Oppression can only stand as long as the people allow it to. Freedom is a God given right, and once people have been exposed to it, it is just a matter of time, for nature to take it's course. With freedom, comes great responsibility, and that responsibility is freedom of choice, of which dictators want no part of.

I'm sorry, but I always develop a giggle when I read this particular line:
Freedom is a God given right
If this were the case, we wouldn't have despotic rulers in the world and we wouldn't have a use for prisons of any type.

Freedom isn't a god-given right. It's only available to those with the strength to take it, or their ancestors strength in the case of most western citizens. We're kinda spoiled in that way, actually. We've lived with our (slowly dwindling) freedoms for so long that we've intellectually forgotten that blood was spilled for those very freedoms that we enjoy, and then claim it to be a 'right'.

End of :soapbox: :

As for the Iranians, most of the protestors are relatively young from what I've seen so aren't really entrenched enough to overthrow their current government. However, I hope I'm wrong and there are enough officials in both the government and military to aid them in the attempt and tip the balance.

My best wishes to the protestors, though. What they're fighting for is definately worth it.
 
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Joab

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Thanks for all the responses. After further research it looks like the U.S. has been giving aid to moderate groups in Iran for sometime too help bring about a more democratic form of government. I read on the back of a book that there are three revolutions occuring in Iran right now. The first is a continution of the Islamic revolution of 1979, the other is a Jeffersonian democratic one, the other Christian. An Iranian leader not named in the book stated a million Christians would come forward if they were free to do so. Don't know anything about the book or author, haven't read it, but there certainly seems to be a lot of discontent in Iran amongst the young people regarding the patriarchy, unemployment and under employment and the inability to start a family due to not having a job or a good enough paying job to support one.

I would say they are in a revolution at this point, which may have officially begun when they went against their Supreme leader the Ayatolla Khamaeni and went on protesting on Saturday. This is the first time since the government was run by an Ayatollah since 1979 that the people disobeyed a direct order from an Ayatollah. The revolution seems to be only in Teheran for now, the countryside is peaceful with a lot of Ahmineadajad supporters. Still, one pundit on Fareed Zakari's show on CNN believes Ahmineadajad is now irrelevent, parliament will ignore him, he has lost the support of the majority.

I just hope the government doesn't get really fascistically draconian and do things like machine gun the crowds or get tanks rolling and truly crush the dissent with hundreds, perhaps thousands of dead protesters. We will wait and see how this develops a truly fascinating time in Iran.
 

Bruno@MT

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Tez3 has the right idea. WE should all be able to see how our last covert help turned out. It led to the current regime being in control.

Operation Ajax was the name. From the wiki:
The anti-democratic coup d’矇tat was a "a critical event in post-war world history" that replaced Iran’s post-monarchic, native, and secular parliamentary democracy with a dictatorship
A similar scenario played out in Iraq with Saddam Hussein.

Actively meddling in internal affairs of another country seems to have adverse long time result. I suspect this is because the will of the people of a country is made inferior to the political motives of another country. This always leaves major bad feeling, as history has shown.
Btw: no finger pointing to the US specifically here. all major players and minor have done this in the past. Even tiny Belgium has its shameful past.
 
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Tez3

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Thanks for all the responses. After further research it looks like the U.S. has been giving aid to moderate groups in Iran for sometime too help bring about a more democratic form of government. I read on the back of a book that there are three revolutions occuring in Iran right now. The first is a continution of the Islamic revolution of 1979, the other is a Jeffersonian democratic one, the other Christian. An Iranian leader not named in the book stated a million Christians would come forward if they were free to do so. Don't know anything about the book or author, haven't read it, but there certainly seems to be a lot of discontent in Iran amongst the young people regarding the patriarchy, unemployment and under employment and the inability to start a family due to not having a job or a good enough paying job to support one.

I would say they are in a revolution at this point, which may have officially begun when they went against their Supreme leader the Ayatolla Khamaeni and went on protesting on Saturday. This is the first time since the government was run by an Ayatollah since 1979 that the people disobeyed a direct order from an Ayatollah. The revolution seems to be only in Teheran for now, the countryside is peaceful with a lot of Ahmineadajad supporters. Still, one pundit on Fareed Zakari's show on CNN believes Ahmineadajad is now irrelevent, parliament will ignore him, he has lost the support of the majority.

I just hope the government doesn't get really fascistically draconian and do things like machine gun the crowds or get tanks rolling and truly crush the dissent with hundreds, perhaps thousands of dead protesters. We will wait and see how this develops a truly fascinating time in Iran.

I doubt there are a million Christians in Iran, the official figure is 300,000 most of these are Armenian which is the Orthodox church. They aren't popular simply because they feel they have to go around trying to convert people. In a country that actually has diverse religions including many forms of Islam, Sunni, Shi'ite and Sufi plus other beliefs why do they need they have to look down on others religions and try to convert people. There's no feeling of live and let live. I doubt the support of Christians will carry any weight with the Iranians, it's traditionally Muslim and while the Christians insist on being so superior they will never carry any weight with their opinions.
 
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