Gerry, the point I was trying to make is that whether you are competing as a white belt in the Pan Ams in California or a local competition, because the system is robust, there is calibration. Sure, it's impossible to know how well you, specifically, would perform, because you've never applied your skills outside of training. That's the actual heart of the issue. But that doesn't mean the competitive system lacks specificity.
Regarding how well you did while rolling with people at one time, I urge you to be very cautious in your evaluation of your performance. You have no idea what those purple belts were working on. The goal of sparring isn't to tap the other person out as many times as you can. It's to work on things. So, purple belts are almost surely taking it very easy on you and working on their own stuff. In contrast, the goal of competition is to win that competition. You're not practicing your skills in a competition; you're testing them.
So, where does that leave us? I think it further reinforces the value of applying skills outside of the training hall. There is value, even if you do it once or twice, or entering a local competition vs a national one. If you enter as a blue belt, you will find out very quickly if your skills are competitive at that level. If you easily win every match in your blue belt division, great information for you to know. If you get tooled, that's also great. Tells you where you're at. Not everyone needs to compete in order to measure their skills. Cops, soldiers, bouncers, gang members, mafia enforcers... these people all test their skills in varying ways. But if you're not in a position to apply your skills outside of training, you really don't know. You could be on par with black belts, for all we know. As unlikely as that may be, it's possible.
@Tony Dismukes spars with a lot of other folks. When he does so, he is getting a lot of information from that experience, in the moment, and I'm guessing also in retrospection. The value he gets out of these interactions, in my opinion, is as much about what he brings to them as what the other person does. What I'm trying to say is that
@Tony Dismukes is a black belt in BJJ who has trained in many other styles over the years and who continues to train in other styles, many of them calibrated through competition. He HAS objective feedback regarding his skill level, and, in turn, that gives him the experience to evaluate his training. Consider how much value Tony would get from training for a day with a rugby player who had no grappling experience. I don't think it's very likely that Tony will misconstrue the lessons learned. Now, how about that rugby player? I think it's highly likely he will lack the experience to even understand what was going on, and because Tony is a nice guy, might even come out of it with an inflated opinion about his own performance.
To be clear, it doesn't matter to me how skilled you are. It does matter, though. It matters to you, as a martial artist, because you may need those skills someday, and you're functionally just crossing your fingers that you're as good as you think. It matters to your students, because they trust you as an expert, and when you tell them that you're teaching them skills that they will be able to apply in the context of self defense, that's a big deal to me.
In summary, the idea here isn't to say that you (as in you,
@gpseymour) are or are not a skilled grappler. The point is that we don't know, or more importantly, YOU don't really know. And, if "self defense orientation" is your primary goal for training, then it seems like you'd want to have some idea of how well you can apply your skills outside of training BEFORE you test your skills in an actual self defense situation.