The EU.

arnisador

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I note that Latvia appears set on joining the European Union, but not every European country seems quite so eager to do so. I ask three questions:

1.) Do you think the EU will eventually include all of Europe?
2.) Do you think the EU will eventually function as a nation, similar to the U.S.?
3.) If 1. and 2. should happen, would that be Good, Bad, or Indifferent for the U.S.?

My belief is Yes they'll eventually get the whole continent. Those who remain outside, possibly because they see an advantage in being the sole nation(s) on the continent able to avoid certain laws and economic policies (so that they might attract banking business from EU countries due to having rules that aren't acceptable under the EU), will be forced by economic pressure to join the rest.

I also say Yes to the second point. They already have what amounts to a legislative and a judicial system for the EU. The executive is very weak but soon there will be pressure for a truly joint military. Those growing up in this system will see themselves as Europeans as much as Italians, French, etc. This will happen, at least de facto. True integration in the style of the U.S. will be held up by language differences, differences in the educational systems (and other incompatibilities), and of ocurse national pride.

I believe it'll be Good for the U.S. to have a strong Europe. I see no big threat to us from there. They aren't really changing their abilities to meet one anothers' needs. Tariffs are an issue but my guess is that that issue will be resolved.
 

Nightingale

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1. probably
2. no way in hell.

people are way to into being "british" "french" or whatever. people's nationality is a BIG part of who they are... the EU is a good thing, because:

1. it gives smaller countries more power and protection because of the large group
2. unified currency! the Euro was a godsend on my last trip over there.
 
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pknox

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Excellent question, Arnisador, and a great point about nationalism, Nightingale. I do think that eventually they will join together, if only economically (your #1, Arnisador), because as it is now, there economies are so closely linked that an economic downturn in one part of the union effects the others. I believe they will realize that economically it will be in their best interest to consolidate, so as to limit currency issues in those countries that have not yet accepted the euro, establish common trading practices, and use their combined supplies as leverage when negotiating with other countries (Imagine it like a 3 way trade in baseball -- The U.S. will give grain to Italy, in exchange for produce, sell that produce to England, who will give us wool -- a win-win-win). As far as militarily, I'm not so sure. One point to remember is that we have only been "Americans" for 250 or so years (at most 400 if you go back to Roanoke/Jamestown), and we are a very heterogenous country, basically built by immigrants. The countries of Europe have formed their national identities over periods of a thousand years or more, and are much more homogenous than we are in terms of their population; in some cases there is also deep-seeded distrust between countries and/or ethnic groups that has a long history. For example, would the Irish REALLY agree to consolidate with a British military? Would the French and Germans combine forces after what happened in WWII (not to mention other countless wars before that)? Human nature (the tendency to reward individualism) and a long history work against it. However, outside forces would be even more against such a plan. While the U.S. may benefit economically (and in some cases, militarily, as many of the EU countries are UN nations as well, so a lot of redundancies could be eliminated), countries in the near and far east would probably not feel comfortable about arguably the largest consolidated military power in history setting up shop right in their backyard. And we really don't need to give SOME of the countries in the near east an excuse to band together, right? :)
 
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pknox

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BTW, let's get some of our MT members on the "other side of the pond" involved in this one, as their perspective on this thread could prove very informative.
 

Nightingale

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would the Irish consolodoate with the british?

HELL NO.

The Irish spent decades fighting for independence. Finally got it in 1917. They still HATE the british, from what I saw in Ireland... thing is, for us, the folks that fought our revolutionary war were people we've never met... for the Irish, these fighters were their grandparents!

We were able to stop hating the british because they're so far away... the Irish still have half their country under british rule...

because Ireland fought (and is still fighting) so hard for its independence, I don't think they're going to give it up anytime soon.
 
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arnisador

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Nationalism and language issues will be the big barriers.

But a lot can change in a generation, especially with the mass media of today. A group of kids that grows up in a common Union, with common currency, with ease of travel between countries, and with numerous pan-European organizations, could change things more quickly than you might expect--expecially if there are economic benefits involved.

Germany was reunified within 50 years of the end of the war. of course resentment lingers, but that's a short time for a country to be forgiven for WWII and all that that entailed.

I think that those borders will (effectively) fall more quickly than people expect, even if a token national identity remains (as seen in Scotland's govt., for example).
 
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pknox

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Interesting point. As a history teacher, I can tell you first hand that it sometimes takes a generation or less to forget our past; possibly a little more if the events were truly horrific.

As for the German example, remember that part of the reason that the unification of the two German nations was able to be portrayed as a "good thing" to those involved was that both groups were in fact German -- so in a way, their unification would enable people to develop an even stronger nationalistic identity. In the case of the EU as a conglomeration, you wouldn't be bringing together French and French, but French and British, Germans and Italians, etc.

I think one additional fear would be the development of a nationalistic backlash. Imagine if a common European nation developed, and the Portuguese (just to use an example, not to pick on them, in fact, they are a wonderful people and I really can't get enough of their food ;) ) decided this new entity was not "Portuguese" enough -- a reaction might be to form some type of nationalistic association, promoting all things Portuguese. While in theory this could be a good thing, it could also possibly degrade into a hyper-nationalistic pseudo-terroristic group if they don't feel their "voice" is being heard. Unfortunately the precedent is there -- the IRA (while more religious based than nationalistic based) does rely quite a bit on a pro-Irish/anti-British sentiment to recruit, and Hitler successfully appealed to Germany's sense of nationalism to aid his rapid rise to power. Mussolini did the same in Italy. Groups that perceive themselves as being disadvantaged are always more liable to accept radical ideas and actions, as they feel they have less to lose. One only look at our own forefathers for an example of what desperate measures people are willing to undertake in desperate times.

While I agree the EU countries may actually merge despite this (at least economically), I think the potential disapproval of outside countries (i.e. not EU or North/South America) are more of an issue. Additionally, as the U.S., we have a precarious position -- a common European Union would most likely benefit us, but as other nations may disapprove, do we risk offending and/or disassociating with them to facilitate a "complete" EU? As economies are so globally linked now, divesting ourselves from the near and far east might not be a wise decision.

I think part of it is a perception of economic vs. military -- I think most countries (maybe even in the near and far east) would not have a problem with an economic combination, as long as the new association doesn't wrongly use it to artificially manipulate world markets -- the military one is what would raise their collective eyebrows.
 
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Elfan

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Originally posted by arnisador

3.) If 1. and 2. should happen, would that be Good, Bad, or Indifferent for the U.S.?

A more relevant question may be weather this is good for Europe.
 
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arnisador

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Originally posted by Elfan
A more relevant question may be weather this is good for Europe.

Are the countries of Europe not acting to their own benefit? Right now Europe is a geographical entity. This is making it a political one. For now we must ask, is this good for the nations of Europe? I'm guessing that most think so, because they are after all doing it. I don't think there's been a great deal of coercion yet--though I think economic penalties for those not in will surely increase when the EU really gets going. For now they're smoothing out too many bureaucratic details for that.

No one can be sure, but I have to assume they're acting in their interests. I think the stability (political as well as economic) and freer market is in their long-term interests.
 
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arnisador

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I think the points you make are all valid, pknox, but I think they'll slowly become less and less relevant to each succeeding generation. For now, the French are French and the Germans German; but think of the mixing that will occur given the rules which allow workers to work in other countries relatively easily. The borders are falling within the EU, and the mass media insures that English is a common tongue wherever one goes.

Problems with minority groups, as with the Basques, will certainly continue. But they haven't stopped Spain and won't stop the EU, I'm guessing. Italy survived the Red Brigade.

I admit I haven't given much thought to the effect of countermeasures from other countries. If the Arab countries form an AU in response, what will happen?

Every non-apocalyptic sci-fi book posits fewer countries in the far future--maybe one world govt., maybe a few large govts. (as in 1984). Maybe we'll head there. I can't see the EU backing off due to pressure from a China or such, or the threat of a unified southern Africa or Latin America--I think they'd see that as all the more reason to merge into a larger player. Can you suggest a more specific scenario?
 
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pknox

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Originally posted by arnisador
I admit I haven't given much thought to the effect of countermeasures from other countries. If the Arab countries form an AU in response, what will happen?

I think you are absolutely correct about the issues becoming less important to succeeding generations. Being ignorant of history is often a handicap (the old "those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it" line), but in some cases, it can be for the better -- such as when it allows rivalries to die that exist for reasons that are unknown to anyone but those in the far past, and probably don't even apply to those in the present. I'm sure the present Hatfields and McCoys don't even know WHY they hate each other, they know that they just DO.

As for an AU, that is a scary thought. Let's hope it never comes to that, as I don't know if there would be a valid countermeasure to it if were to exist as it would in the current world political climate. Basically that fear is what I meant when I said disassociating/offending said groups would not be in our best interest. I guess that if we position a unified EU as a positive to the outside countries, we'd be OK. A friend of mine is a public relations executive, and has always told me that the U.S. has the best PR people in the world, followed closely by the Brits. Let's hope so! :D

As far as what could happen based on sci-fi, let's ask Harry Turtledove -- I'm sure he's written something on it. ;) And really, basing decisions on sci-fi possibilities wouldn't be so bad -- wasn't Nancy Reagan pretty into astrology, and reportedly tried to get Ronnie into it as well? :D

BTW -- quite an excellent thread -- I for one am quite pleased that we have people here who are not only versed in MA, but obviously in a myriad of other issues as well. We should all be happy that we have access to such a learned community with wonderfully different perspectives!
 

Rich Parsons

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The EU, a single entity in the future.

If they continue to act as English versus French, etc, ..., . then it will be difficult.

Yet, there are people who still believe in the South and even in Texas their separate government and freedom. Yet we seem to operate, ok.

The Languages will be difficult to overcome, yet most of them speak English/American to deal with Americans.

So, I think it is possible to have a long term EU acting as one coalition.

I have also thought it possible to have others join in their own. In so doing we can concentrate on areas of stability. The break up of the USSR ended the cold war, yet did decrease the stability.

It would be nice to think of us as a nice whole planet, thining in the complete big picture, yet this is just my dream or wild thought.

:asian:
 
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arnisador

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Originally posted by Rich Parsons
The break up of the USSR ended the cold war, yet did decrease the stability.

I did not expect to see the USSR fall within my lifetime. I did expect to see Germany reunited, but I didn't expect socialism to no longer be the system in the USSR and in China. I still don't believe it'll fall in China for quite some time, but now I do wonder if I'll live to see it happen?

Official EU site:
http://europa.eu.int/
 

OULobo

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I think the currency and economic issues will drive all the countries to join, but I definitly agree with the stated opinions of nationalism as a kill point for a singular country. Too much old bad blood. We may see a modified version of the US with the EU nations as states with more power than the states here in the US. Consequently I think I just read recently that the Swedes were trying to pull out of using the Euro. I sadly didn't catch the reason or the rest of the article.

I think that if the EU becomes a "nation" than the number of internal state/nations will increase two fold, because enbattled areas, like Ireland, Basque, and Corsica will more easily gain "state" status. This is good in my opinion, as they gain the ability to claim nationalistic independance, but still remain part of a whole, defusing violence and retaining econimic connections.

I don't think this is such a great thing for the US. The stability of european militaries against the US hasn't been a concern since WWII and I don't think that it ever will in quite a few generations, but the economic power of Europe is vast. The industries are established and mature, and there is no "brain drain" or lack of educated individuals there. The Euro is already pounding the US dollar as an effect of European unity.
ILLUMINATI ALERT! :uhoh: :EG:
 
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Andi

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Hmmm, would you look at that? No Europeans have dived in and chucked in their tuppences. Amazing.

Good questions there.
1.) Do you think the EU will eventually include all of Europe?

Seeing how 10 new countries are coming in next year and 3 more (It's all the ex-communist ones plus Cyprus, Malta and Turkey) want to get in, I'd say yeah, I'm pretty sure it will include everyone eventually. Now Russia is a different kettle of fish. They may be the only ones not to jump in, on the basis of the size of their geographical and population size. They don't seem to have any interest at the moment, and I'm sure the EU would have to have a long hard think about accepting Russia, which would possibly be perceived as a massive burden. (Having said that, the EU has accepted 10 countries many think will have to be carried- I digress.) Also, Switzerland may not bother with it, for obvious reasons.

In fact if all those 13 eventually do join, that would just leave the Former Yugoslav countries (Croatia, Bosnia-Herzogovina, Serbia, Albania and Macedonia) plus Norway, Iceland, Belarus and the Ukraine not in the union. And Russia and Switzerland of course. That's 28 in, 11 out. The pressure to be join would be surely too great.

2.) Do you think the EU will eventually function as a nation, similar to the U.S.?

Eventually? It's impossible to predict from this point. Not for at least 100 years if not five times that. Similar to the US? No. Cant see that. Maybe that's my patriotic side rearing it's British head but I think that would take a real long time to happen and anyway, there's enough anti-americanism around these parts to ensure we'd try and make up our own way. Which could well be your system repackaged, but well. You know how we get! Economically, I expect that everybody will be in the Euro soon enough (20 years), even if Sweden and us lot are kicking and screaming and whining about it (Guess what I think on the subject!). Militarily, it'd take a real long time to develop the kind of trust necessary to have a single set of forces. Even this "rapid reaction force" we hear so much about has caused a load of fuss. Patriotism takes a loooong time to die.

3.) If 1. and 2. should happen, would that be Good, Bad, or Indifferent for the U.S.?

Could go either way. If everybody gets in on the EU and things get all cohesive, the US might suddenly find itself with a superpower neighbour (highly unlikely). Could it aggravate other nations around the world to do similar things? Arab Union etc? I'd say it was quite likely, but again, as in the EU, I'm sure they'd all be dominated by petty squabbles. That's an advantage the US has here....there's (relatively) no internal tension because of how the union has came about.

Economically, will a healthy European economy help the US? Sure. Let's just wait and see if this euro thing can carry (there it is again) all the weaker currencies.


Having said all that, I'm stuck here and I get force-fed a diet of propaganda, mostly anti-EU although not all, so I may have no idea. Ask Joe Bloggs on a random street in Halesowen though and you'd probably get the answers 1) hope not 2) Hell no and 3) don't care.

Andi
 
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Andi

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Oh, and thinking about it, we'd probably get more and more of these right wingers popping up if we headed down the unification route. I've had enough BNP (racists that pretend they're not) councillors in Oldham thank you very much.

Also, other countries not in the EU:
Andorra
Liechtenstein
Moldova
Monaco
San Marino
and the Vatican.
Like the Vatican counts. Moldova's the only that's an actual country.

Now watch me get flamed by some fella from Liechtenstein.
 
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arnisador

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I suspect that you're right that the euro wil be the currency one way or another, even for European nations that don't fully join up. Some way will be found to get them on that currency.

Nationalism is an issue. The U.S. faced it in a way--the States thought of themselves as independent entities, and it still surprises foreigners how much the laws vary from State to State--but it was a much shorter history, a single language, and a common threat(s).
 

Rich Parsons

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Originally posted by OULobo
I think the currency and economic issues will drive all the countries to join, but I definitly agree with the stated opinions of nationalism as a kill point for a singular country. Too much old bad blood. We may see a modified version of the US with the EU nations as states with more power than the states here in the US. Consequently I think I just read recently that the Swedes were trying to pull out of using the Euro. I sadly didn't catch the reason or the rest of the article.

I think that if the EU becomes a "nation" than the number of internal state/nations will increase two fold, because enbattled areas, like Ireland, Basque, and Corsica will more easily gain "state" status. This is good in my opinion, as they gain the ability to claim nationalistic independance, but still remain part of a whole, defusing violence and retaining econimic connections.

I don't think this is such a great thing for the US. The stability of european militaries against the US hasn't been a concern since WWII and I don't think that it ever will in quite a few generations, but the economic power of Europe is vast. The industries are established and mature, and there is no "brain drain" or lack of educated individuals there. The Euro is already pounding the US dollar as an effect of European unity.
ILLUMINATI ALERT!


OULobo et al,

When I said Stability I did not mean for military. I meant economically. Example, a large company in the US wishes to do business with a country and their own currency and the possibility of drastic inflation, or with a much more stable (* Relative term *) Euro. This would allow for a company to be in a joint venture with the US company in Italy and have plants in Germany, Sweden, and Hungry, with limited concern for currency issues. This could mean jobs, in these countries versus going to country EXY where you have to not only deal with the different currency you also have to deal with the extra import export duties. An example of this in reverse is how many if not all of the major Japanese companies have plants here in North America to offset the difference between the Yen and the Dollar.

Your comment about the military is true, we would not have to worry, for many reasons, including those mentioned in other posts in this thread.

As and citizen of the USA, in the EU, I found it real easy to travel, and get around, less border to no border checks, and using all the same money. (* Switzerland accepts the Euro *) This made it easy for me when I returned with expense one report and the company saved money on the process and handling and not having a report for each type of currency.

As to a single Executive Branch of government, I can see it happening. If you go to Georgia or Alabama or Mississippi, you will find people that believe the South will rise again and be free from the Northern Oppression. If you go into Texas you will find people who either believe the South Will rise or the Texas will rise again fly s single Star over their land. Puerto Rico is a province and gains most of the benefits of being a state and yet they choose to remain a territory, for it benefits them more this way. Hawai'i has a Kingdom, before we annexed it, and it could go back to this, yet the Natives' of Hawai'i benefit from being a member more than standing alone, (* They have made laws to benefit the locals versus those not born in the state *). As Arnisador pointed out laws differ from state to state as well as the powers and styles of government. We have some states with a single house or representatives, others with two like the federal and still others are run as a commonwealth in name.

Yet given this great diversity, it all seems to come together. Now with the EU model after the USA? Most likely, as we modeled off of the British and the Magna Charta and Ancient Rome for examples. The EU would of course use their own influences as well as those from history and put their own twist on things, as they should, to fit their requirements.

Why do I say these things? I say all these things, as a member of a free society and open market that believes that people will eventually act in their own best interests (* even if their leaders have to guide them *) to realize that it is better for business and for the economy with the commonalties. Yes someone can make money with high risk in instability and unstable governments, these are usually those involved with the black markets et al. As the EU produces it products and those in North America produce there own, trade will occur. If more trade can occur to benefit each person with less complexity then this will help to improve the standard of living for all those involved.

I apologize for the long winded point of view.
:asian:
 
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Andi

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(* Switzerland accepts the Euro *)

Well there we go, I didn't realise. Very sensible the Swiss.

If you go to Georgia or Alabama or Mississippi, you will find people that believe the South will rise again and be free from the Northern Oppression. If you go into Texas you will find people who either believe the South Will rise or the Texas will rise again fly s single Star over their land.

There's something I didn't know. I always thought that the civil war settled all that. Is it much of an issue there? I mean do you get random politicians trying to get elected on the basis of seceding?? Surely to withdraw would be ridiculous. Slightly off topic, I know, but I'm curious.

As to a single Executive Branch of government, I can see it happening.

This EU constitution they are trying to pass should give a good indication as to whether we'll go down that route. Most people see it as a further step towards the United States of Europe, so as you can imagine, it doesn't get a good press. I'm undecided on the subject myself as nobody seems to report what's actually in this constitution. We just get lots of hysterical white noise from all directions. As I understand it, for it to pass, it has to be a unanimous decision across the 15 and if it doesn't pass, then... well. That'll throw a spanner in the works.
 
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arnisador

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Perhaps the EU can some day have its own Civil War!

But yes, we should get back on topic!
 

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