More on China

[Bill Mattocks]

Found this interesting. Nothing new, but interesting:

http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/05/business/china-africa-cctv-media/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

Chinese media make inroads into Africa
From David McKenzie, CNN
updated 10:36 AM EDT, Tue September 25, 2012
Nairobi, Kenya (CNN) -- For years, China has been pumping billions of dollars across Africa to build large-scale infrastructure projects and grant cheap loans in exchange for access to the continent's natural resources and growing markets.
And lately, along with its economic and political engagements, Beijing has also been making significant strides in expanding its media engagements in Africa. In January, the Chinese Central Television (CCTV), a state-owned news behemoth with bureaus all over the world, chose the Kenyan capital of Nairobi as the location of its first broadcast hub outside its Beijing headquarters.
Analysts say it's all part of efforts to win the hearts and minds of people in the continent and create a more fertile business environment.
"CCTV's expansion in Africa is mainly one step of this whole national engine into Africa," says analyst Jinghao Lu of Frontier Advisory. "China's investment in Africa has increased several folds in the last several years and the trade between China and the whole continent has reached $166 billion, so China really has a very significant show up at this continent."
Over the last decade, China, Africa's largest trade partner, has quietly invested significant sums in building communications infrastructure across Africa, providing technical upgrades for state broadcasters and training journalists from across the continent.
At the same time it has been rapidly expanding its presence on the continent's media landscape. Xinhua, China's state-run news agency, is leading Beijing's inroads with more than 20 bureaus in the continent. In 2008, it launched the China African News Service while in April last year it teamed up with telecommunications firm Safaricom to start a mobile newspaper in Kenya.

The future will belong to China. Because the West ignores South America and Africa for the most part. We're morons and deserve what we get.

 

[Sukerkin]

Aye, it's a progression I have been keeping my ex-economists eye on for some time now. All is not roses in that particular garden tho', as some of the African nations leaders are starting to wake up to just what a bad deal they saddled themselves with when first the 'treasure chest' was waved in front of their noses.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

Aye, it's a progression I have been keeping my ex-economists eye on for some time now. All is not roses in that particular garden tho', as some of the African nations leaders are starting to wake up to just what a bad deal they saddled themselves with when first the 'treasure chest' was waved in front of their noses.

All may not be roses, but the fact is, China is there; we are not. Amends and apologies can be made if you are there; not if you are not there.

 

[Sukerkin]

True enough that :nods:. Our 'problem' has been that we have seen Africa as a basket case as a whole for too long - all the aid for the seemingly endless famines (caused mostly by wars there, the people know how to farm perfectly well after all) has given us the impression they can't look after themselves. The reality is that some of the African countries are becoming perfectly creditable markets with a (slow) move towards perhaps producing manufactures rather than export raw materials. China has seen this and gotten behind and pushed.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

True enough that :nods:. Our 'problem' has been that we have seen Africa as a basket case as a whole for too long - all the aid for the seemingly endless famines (caused mostly by wars there, the people know how to farm perfectly well after all) has given us the impression they can't look after themselves. The reality is that some of the African countries are becoming perfectly creditable markets with a (slow) move towards perhaps producing manufactures rather than export raw materials. China has seen this and gotten behind and pushed.

We saw aid as a hands-off for commercial ventures. Don't exploit, don't colonize, just get in there and throw money around! Perhaps this could not be avoided after the terrible example we (the West) set during the Colonial Powers or Imperialist era - South Africa, Rhodesia, and so on. So we didn't want a repeat of that. But China had no history to contend with in Africa and South America, and they do not separate their commercial and government interests; to them it is one and the same. And unlike most other nations, they have the power and money to put a shoulder to the wheel. What they are doing is helping - and taking - at the same time.

China is Africa's #1 trading partner now; in the future, we'll be relegated to 2nd world status as we lose financial clout and military might. The sun sets on the West.

 

[Xue Sheng]

China has another advantage with Africa, it had been about 580 years (see Zheng He) since China had any trade interaction with Africa at all and although it is thought to have been mostly positive it is likely no one in Africa remembers it. However the last time the west had any significant interaction with Africa it did not all that positive and as the West (mostly the USA) charged in with the cavalry to save the downtrodden and oppressed of the world we mostly ignored the African Continent and lot in Africa still remember that.


So it is possible that the West would not do as well in trade with Africa as China does and Bill hit on another 'advantage" China does not separate their commercial and government interests...at least not yet

 

[granfire]

Seems like the people are getting what they deserve:
For years and years people have been screaming about how no foreign aid to be rendered to other - poorer - countries, many of which are on the dark continent....

Very nearsighted, but it was the people's wish.

Oh, I do believe I mentioned time and time again, that every dollar spend on foreign aid usually pays dividend 10 times over....

I guess it sucks to be us, living in the times of the power shift....
I guess we need to tell our kids to make sure to take mandarin chinese and cantonese in school....

 

[Xue Sheng]

Seems like the people are getting what they deserve:
For years and years people have been screaming about how no foreign aid to be rendered to other - poorer - countries, many of which are on the dark continent....

Very nearsighted, but it was the people's wish.

Oh, I do believe I mentioned time and time again, that every dollar spend on foreign aid usually pays dividend 10 times over....

I guess it sucks to be us, living in the times of the power shift....
I guess we need to tell our kids to make sure to take mandarin chinese and cantonese in school....

I would not worry about Cantonese but Mandarin might be a good idea, Mandarin is the national language of China.

And my kids are either already in Chinese school learning Mandarin...or speak it.

 

[Sukerkin]

One view of the re-emergence of super-power-ish-status China:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19995218

 

[Xue Sheng]

One view of the re-emergence of super-power-ish-status China:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19995218

Good article and it is saying a few things I have said for a long time 2 are

China has never been interested in any territory it did not consider to be historically part of China.

And in the west we think 2 weeks is a long time; in China they do not think 100 years is a long time.

In addition to this China cannot figure out why anyone (the west) cares what goes on inside of another countries borders.

Other things to think about when talking China, no matter what the Chinese government says it is rather still concerned about the “Mandate of Heaven”, it is basically a Confucian Society trying real hard not to be which gives it a bit of an identity crises and it and almost everything they do as it applies to the rest of the world is based on Sun Tzu Bing Fa.

And last, it may not have a large Navy but it does have a rather large army and it is a nuclear power… and until recently China has been INCREDIBLY happy with being underestimated militarily…see Sun Tzu Bing Fa

 

[granfire]

I would not worry about Cantonese but Mandarin might be a good idea, Mandarin is the national language of China.

And my kids are either already in Chinese school learning Mandarin...or speak it.

well, they better!

 

[billc]

This about sums it up...

• ​
  Banned US Commercial about the national debtby BNPCrusade2424,776 views

 

[Bill Mattocks]

China has never been interested in any territory it did not consider to be historically part of China.

Kind of like the Sudetenland or Austria, then. Thank you.

Also, you kind of missed something from the link Sukerkin provided:

And with economic power will come commensurate political power and influence. China will, if it wishes, be able to bend many other countries to its will.

Absolutely true, but leaves out a very important detail. When huge debtors (say the United States) repudiate debts or fail to pay, guess what happens next? HINT: China is not building up and modernizing its military so that they can make a sad face and go away if other nations refuse to pay their debts.

 

[Xue Sheng]

Kind of like the Sudetenland or Austria, then. Thank you.

Kinda, but it is based on dynastic maps of China so they will never look at Sweden and say that was China or Alaska and say that was China or Russia, Japan or Singapore for that matter nor will China ever say "You know there are Chinese people in Montana so that is China"...but Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and Tibet...now they are different based on dynastic maps and past agreements with long dead emperors. And you really can’t apply the German (western) way of thinking to China as it applies to territory, that would be a big mistake

Also, you kind of missed something from the link Sukerkin provided:



Absolutely true, but leaves out a very important detail. When huge debtors (say the United States) repudiate debts or fail to pay, guess what happens next? HINT: China is not building up and modernizing its military so that they can make a sad face and go away if other nations refuse to pay their debts.

Nah I did not miss that. It will never claim them as a colony, territory of part of China and I doubt it will roll in tanks either. Also look at Hong Kong...how much did they bend Hong Kong to the will of Beijing.... little to none. They are just reaping the benefits of it that is all. I doubt they will do a lot of bending anyone to their will, they just want the cash. I doubt they are going to turn Africa communist since they are not all that communist (other than political party) so I do not think I would look to McCarthyism as the answer in the 21st century as it applies to China. You can’t look at China with Western Philosophy or views on colonialism…. It is just not there. It is a whole lot easier for us to make sense of it but we end up with the wrong view and that will hurt us all in the long run

As for an unpaid debt, how would invading a country get them any of their debt back, we still could not pay them and they would have spent millions on a military action and the result would be a bankrupt China. I doubt China will go to war with the US over debt however it may go after the US in other ways. My thoughts on their military buildup are more along the lines of reactionary then aggressive. They see the US invading all sorts of places and the US has and is darn close to China and they will respond if attacked and they have, since the 1st gulf war, changed their idea of war with the USA. Up until that point they were certain numbers would win but after watching that they were fairly sure they would lose a war with the US if it ever came to that so they changed their military and had a goal of being able to defeat the US, if it came to war, by 2015. I do not think China will instigate a war but they will not back down from one either and they see to be a super power means a powerful military.

The only thing I cannot figure out is the move from enjoying being underrated to overt shows of military strength...that does not fall under the ideas of Sun Tzu Bing Fa...unless it is much like the star wars program that helped to bankrupt Russia. Orit is diversionary and it is it hey look at our military, look how strong we are getting.... and don't look at our Cyber warfare capabilities we are building....they are one of the Big 3 there by the way. Never forget China controls it's media and they knnow pretty much everything that gets out and you have to look at it as there must be a reason they let it out. They also count on our "freedom of the Press" view to easily distract us with a news story.

I will admit the sabre rattling of China has me a bit perplexed and a little concerned too.


A bit of a side note on China and the US; I once got to listen to a woman who was at one time a corporate spy for Chinese companies and she said getting info from US engineers was easy. You did not have to do anything really, all you had to do was tell them how impressed you were by what they designed and after that they told you all about it…. no "favors", no war, violence, torture, or real spying needed.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

Kinda, but it is based on dynastic maps of China so they will never look at Sweden and say that was China or Alaska and say that was China or Russia, Japan or Singapore for that matter...but Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and Tibet...now they are different. And you really can’t apply the German (western) way of thinking to China as it applies to territory, that would be a big mistake

Why would it be a big mistake to look at history? Is China like Germany? No. But does history tend to repeat itself? Yes. And appeasers tend not to do well in the history books.

Nah I did not miss that. It will never claim them as a colony, territory of part of China and I doubt it will roll in tanks either. Also look at Hong Kong...how much did they bend Hong Kong to the will of Beijing.... little to none. They are just reaping the benefits of it that is all. I doubt they will do a lot of bending anyone to their will, they just want the cash. I doubt they are going to turn Africa communist since they are not all that communist (other than political party) so I do not think I would look to McCarthyism as the answer in the 21st century as it applies to China. You can’t look at China with Western Philosophy or views on colonialism…. It is just not there. It is a whole lot easier for us to make sense of it but we end up with the wrong view and that will hurt us all in the long run

You said it yourself, China thinks in the long term. When you say they have not rolled in tanks to Hong Kong, you would have to add the caveat, "yet," wouldn't you? It's "too soon to tell," to quote the article.

Yes, I can look at China with Western eyes. There is no reason not to. And frankly, putting blinders on would be flat-out stupid. "Oh, Johnny would never do anything wrong, Johnny's a good boy." Uh huh. Blinders are the tools of fools. I prefer 'trust but verify' myself.

As for an unpaid debt, how would invading a country get them any of their debt back, we still could not pay them and they would have spent millions on a military action and the result would be a bankrupt China. I doubt China will go to war with the US over debt however it may go after the US in other ways. My thoughts on their military buildup are more along the lines of reactionary then aggressive. They see the US invading all sorts of places and the US has and is darn close to China and they will respond if attacked and they have, since the 1st gulf war, changed their idea of war with the USA. Up until that point they were certain numbers would win but after watching that they were fairly sure they would lose a war with the US if it ever came to that so they changed their military and had a goal of being able to defeat the US, if it came to war, by 2015. I do not think China will instigate a war but they will not back down from one either and they see to be a super power means a powerful military.

Who said anything about invading? How about simply demanding and then making us an offer we could not refuse? "Oh, you refuse to pay, eh? OK, so here's the deal. We own California. Our military superiority and your debt says so. Call it a mechanic's lien." When they have the might to enforce a contract, why would they NOT do it? Or something as simple as demanding a role in our government processes, a veto on our spending, like debtor-in-possession type thing? Or simple requiring that the US begin admitting larger numbers of Chinese immigrants or drop border controls for Chinese citizens, etc? There are lots of forms military pressure can take that don't require a bullet to be fired.

The only thing I cannot figure out is the move from enjoying being underrated to overt shows of military strength...that does not fall under the ideas of Sun Tzu Bing Fa...unless it is diversionary.... much like the star wars program that helped to bankrupt Russia. Or is it hey look at our military, look how strong we are getting.... and don't look at our Cyber warfare capabilities we are building....they are one of the Big 3 there by the way

I will admit the sabre rattling of China has me a bit perplexed and a little concerned too.

So there you go.

And I agree with you. China is at our throats economically, geographic-influence-wise, technology-wise, and they have shown every intention of being able to compete with us on the military playing field as well. There is no field of endeavor that China is not attempting to prevail in.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_station

I am not a believer in China's desire to export communism world-wide. I don't think China is a communist nation anymore in any real sense. The Communist Party is simply the name of the party in charge.

But I see China's ascendancy in stark terms, some would say doom-and-gloom. It's natural, it's normal, it's what we would do in their place, and there's no reason to think they will subjugate the world, etc. It's not like we're going to end up slaves to China, any more than the average Chinese citizen was a slave to Washington when the USA was the 'sole remaining superpower'. It is a note that the USA empire is on the decline, and China's star is rising, and we're doing F-all about it. We're just letting it happen. We will become a 2nd rate power in my lifetime if this continues.

 

[granfire]

Kind of like the Sudetenland or Austria, then. Thank you.

Also, you kind of missed something from the link Sukerkin provided:



Absolutely true, but leaves out a very important detail. When huge debtors (say the United States) repudiate debts or fail to pay, guess what happens next? HINT: China is not building up and modernizing its military so that they can make a sad face and go away if other nations refuse to pay their debts.

well, there is one point though you are neglecting:
Those parts of the map were cut off from the motherland against the will of the residents there.
There were elections in some, non in others as to where they wanted to be.

In some instances the outcome was followed, in others not. A half-assed compromise after WWI, in part not touching the loser country instead of dividing it up, in other parts taking it to the chopping block.

(I am not familiar with Chinese history, but the 'it was once part of the country' thing just does not work well in Europe...I mean, why stop at 1937 to mark the borders...1200something or other was so much nicer, no pass required to hit the Riviera! Or the Beaches of the Atlantic...)

 

[Xue Sheng]

Bill for some reason this post made me think you remind me of an incredibly Republican friend of mine (not in party affiliation but attitude) he simply cannot understand that it is not all black and white what that there are people, like me, that have no political affiliation. And hat looking at the world though political party blinders is just not seeing the whole picture and things as they are.

I typed out a long response because so much of your post was so very wrong as it applies to so may things Chinese and international....but then I thought why bother you are once again responding to things I did not say and history has shown me that anything further would be a waste of time. a face to face discussion would be fine but to spend copious amounts of time typing to get nowhere…to be honest, I have better things to do

I will say that this bit right here I would like to let go but…. Once more into the breach

But I see China's ascendancy in stark terms, some would say doom-and-gloom. It's natural, it's normal, it's what we would do in their place, and there's no reason to think they will subjugate the world, etc. It's not like we're going to end up slaves to China, any more than the average Chinese citizen was a slave to Washington when the USA was the 'sole remaining superpower'. It is a note that the USA empire is on the decline, and China's star is rising, and we're doing F-all about it. We're just letting it happen. We will become a 2nd rate power in my lifetime if this continues.

This is exactly what I am saying will not work, You see that just the thing you are thinking of China from a western point of view “What we would do in their place” And we are not them and they are not us. If you simply look at it psychologically and philosophically you see there are pretty much two ends of the spectrum The US and China and things mix in between. You can’t figure out what will happen if we were in their place because the societies are so incredibly different, you want to look at history to figure it out compare western and Chinese history, don’t just look at western history. You also sound as if you are looking for a scape goat to blame for the USA’s major financial mistakes although that could just be the tone I am picking up from this post. We got ourselves into this mess and there is no one to blame but us. If you want to use history, look at all those times scape goats were used and how that ended.

However I doubt you are going to try and look at in any other way so based on history here on MT, experience tells me, like so many of our discussions in the study that this is going now where but downhill fast therefore it is likely pointless to continue so I wish you well.. I have the day off, I have wasted enough time here and I have hedges to trim and leaves to rake.