Is it just me or is this Georgia thing getting more than a little scary

[Andy Moynihan]

Ok I know I'm pessimistic, curmudgeonly, some might say paranoid, and have no faith left in humanity, I accept that and make no pretenses.

So at this point I'd be assuming I'm crazy or mistaken, except for the fact I've NEVER been wrong about human nature before in my adult life..


I swear I won't argue, somebody tell me it's nothing to worry about:


http://www. irishtimes. com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0814/1218477550041. html

Bush:

""We expect Russia to ensure that all lines of communication and transport, including sea ports, airports, roads and airspace, remain open for the delivery of humanitarian assistance and for civilian transit," Mr Bush told reporters in Washington.
"

Russians, yesterday "The US [is] playing a dangerous game in the Caucasus by backing Georgia.
"

Quote:
The first US C-17 cargo planes carrying relief supplies landed in Tbilisi yesterday, the White House announced. A second flight is scheduled to land today.


Although the US deployment is presented as a humanitarian mission, its management by the Pentagon is a clear warning to the Russians.



I really wish we had somebody a little more trustworthy and competent than the Bush gang running things as this is going down.


I hope they allow some pragmatism and not just ideology / doctrine to rule this decision making process. I sure am really glad Georgia wasn't already in NATO.


Did they forget the Russians still have 6000 nukes?

http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Nuclear_arsenal_of_Russia

Quote:

Doctrine of limited nuclear war
According to a Russian military doctrine stated in 2003, tactical nuclear weapons (Strategic Deterrence Forces) could be used to "prevent political pressure against Russia and her allies (Armenia, Belarus, Serbia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan)." Thus, the Russian leadership "is officially contemplating a limited nuclear war" [2].


No seriously, I mean I REALLY wouldn't mind being wrong every so often, somebody's more than welcome to break me the news.....

really.......

 

[jkembry]

I am not sure scary is the right word for it ... unless you happen to be in Georgia.

My opinion only...I believe that an updated 'Cold War' is returning and has been for some time. And, I believe as long as Putin is around we can expect more of this.

The thing I found fascinating about it was the timing of the invasion. Had the Olympics not been in play, I am certain that we would have heard MUCH more about it in our news.

 

[Sukerkin]

It is indeed a scary happening. As soon as I heard it on Friday night I had a definite sensation of "Here we go again!", especially when the West began it's hypocritical 'diplomatic' offensive.

Never underestimate a democratic politicians capacity for venality and dipping their bloody fingers in someone else's 'pie' - especially when there's an election in the offing .

As far as I can tell, the Russians were being somewhat on the blatant side in seizing the excuse to get the tanks in but it's still nothing the American's or us should have been so keen to rattle sabres about. I'm surprised the Russian's didn't tell us to mind our own business in no uncertain terms.

 

[jkembry]

I'm surprised the Russian's didn't tell us to mind our own business in no uncertain terms.

I would have to check, but, I thought I read or heard somewhere that Putin did tell us (America at least) to mind our own business on this.

 

[Sukerkin]

Ah, cheers for the extra news jk, I hadn't heard that.

With the missus' father in hospital, we've been a little pre-occupied with domestic matters rather than international.

 

[jkembry]

Ah, cheers for the extra news jk, I hadn't heard that.

With the missus' father in hospital, we've been a little pre-occupied with domestic matters rather than international.

Not to worry Sukerkin ... sometimes domestic policy is more complex that international. Hope all goes well with the father in law. My prayers are with you.

 

[Phoenix44]

Of course, the only reason this is of interest is because of the oil pipeline.

 

[Ninjamom]

This is of interest because once again Putin is making rumblings about resurrecting the old USSR.

 

[girlbug2]

Yes, because the old USSR was so effective.

 

[5-0 Kenpo]

Yes, because the old USSR was so effective.

You dont have to be effective politically, to be completely dangerous militarily.

And for those with a gut reaction to this based on oil. Could it possibly be because the West fears a resurgance of the Cold War and Russian imperialism, and all that that entials.

Im just sayin.......

 

[Sukerkin]

I wouldn't mind betting that there are elements within business and government that would just love to fan the Cold War back to simmering life. The 'Terrorist Threat' just might not be working well enough when it comes to resource appropriation.

Reading on the BBC the comments that President Bush has made with regard to this was disturbing to say the least. I don't recall falling through a wormhole back to the seventies ... . It would be prudent to remember that that sabre being rattled is funded by a debt already too huge to comprehend.

Ironically, that was what caused the old Soviet Republic to fall - over extension of resources attempting to appear a fierce bear so as to compete with the West in global influence.

 

[CoryKS]

I wouldn't mind betting that there are elements within business and government that would just love to fan the Cold War back to simmering life. The 'Terrorist Threat' just might not be working well enough when it comes to resource appropriation.

Reading on the BBC the comments that President Bush has made with regard to this was disturbing to say the least. I don't recall falling through a wormhole back to the seventies ... . It would be prudent to remember that that sabre being rattled is funded by a debt already too huge to comprehend.

Ironically, that was what caused the old Soviet Republic to fall - over extension of resources attempting to appear a fierce bear so as to compete with the West in global influence.

There's nothing ironic about it. Economic failure on the part of the Soviet Union was the whole point of the arms race. It's a feature, not a bug.

What's ironic to me is that Russia can invade a sovereign nation, roll tanks toward its capital, and what you find disturbing is President Bush' 'saber rattling'. And regarding your first paragraph, suggesting that this was somehow ginned up by the folks who brought us "The Terrorist Threat", I would love to hear your theory on how Vlad the Impaler is actually a Rovian sockpuppet.

 

[Sukerkin]

I wonder how the reporting of this is being slanted for public consumption? As I said above, I've had other things on my small mind this past couple of weeks so I might have gotten this twisted around?

I thought that Georgia had attacked a break-away part of itself and that Russia had used this as a pretext to get some of it's old 'aquired' territory back?

Regardless of the truth of that, yes, it is the Hawks of the West that are the scary part of this event.

If Russia had pre-emptively attacked Georgia once it was a member of NATO then sabres should most assuredly be rattled, if not drawn in a show of force. With things as they are, ebullient posturing for the media is only likely to harden attitudes with no tangible benefit in terms of diplomatic progress.

Also, I can appreciate that your American good self might see things in a very different light from my lived-under-the-nuclear-shadow point of view but it would be nice if you'd pull that barb back out of me again; in my somewhat strung-out emotional state it hurts more than you might think.

 

[zDom]

China concerns me more.

 

[Live True]

Unfortunately, from what I have read/heard, I see scary parts on both the US and Russian sides...and Georgia is certainly not trying to simmer this down either.

I heard this morning that Russia has reacted negatively to US decision and agreement with Poland to base some PAtriot missiles there as part of the US defensive shield. With the current state of Georgia's situation....that was...particuarly poorly timed, unless it was meant to be a not-so-subtle warning. Either way...that increases the stakes here.

Also, Russia stated it was assisting a break away region, but then went on to occupy non-break away territory, including ports, and refused to back down or release them after initially agreeing to....thus increasing concerns about imperialist motivations.

On either side, this is an ugly situation with lots to lose/gain....and much potential to turn ugly...

So, yeah...I'm finding this a bit scary as well....and not to sure if either side is handling this very well....

 

[Makalakumu]

The Russophobes are reasserting themselves in Washington. The neo-cons are on their way out and the ZBigs of this world are now calling the shots. Mark my words, these people will try to pit China against Russia by denying access to oil and resources in far away places...forcing them to look closer.

This will be done to weaken both of these rising powers in order to keep the US at the top of the heap.

The thing is that you can't watch the news or read the papers in order to find out about the weird agendas of the global superclass. You've got to find out what you can by reading their books and papers and then looking at world events through the lense of what they believe and what they said they would like to do.

Both Obama and McCain are creatures of this faction, and, unfortunately, I think that these guys will make the neocons look like smallish petty psychopaths who suffered from a lack of ambition.

 

[CaffeineKing]

For me, the problem stems from the fact that the President of Georgia is made out to be a democrat. He isn't. I understand that he was elected with 96% of the vote after a campaign of pure Soviet-style intimidation. He also started it, and there are no good guys in this one.

Further, if you were a Russian, how is military action against Georgia to save South Ossetians different from past NATO action in Kossovo to save Albanians from Serbia? I grant you that it's much more complicated that that, but if we throw our weight around and ignore Russia, why should they listen to us? Besides, being bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq, and with Iran behaving as it is, what can the West do?

Add in the fact that Russia is on an economic roll (oil prices), controls gas supplies to Europe - you should see my UK gas bill!! - and is finally recovering from a decade of humiliation with NATO now up against it's borders, and it's got something to prove. Having Georgia - or the Ukraine - as NATO partners would simply mean that we'd have to go to war with Russia at some point to defend them. No matter how overwhelming US military power is, doesn't matter. It'll go nuclear - never underestimate damaged Russian pride - and everybody loses.

 

[Sukerkin]

A quite chilling possible future there, DK.

 

[CaffeineKing]

Georgia doesn't worry me, funnily enough. It's not great in there, and Georgians and South Ossetians are both suffering, but it's The Ukraine that scares me. After all, 40-50% of the people in the Ukraine aren't Ukrainian - they're Russian (mainly in the Crimea). What if Ukraine with it's pro-Western government tries to join NATO? The Crimea will pull the South Ossetian gag - with Russian backing, and before we know it, Russia and NATO are locking heads. That would be a nasty one. The stakes would be much higher for Russia than they would be for us...

Sorry guys - I think I got out of the grim side of bed this morning!

 

[Sukerkin]

Or, alternatively, the 'clear-sighted' side of the bed. It hasn't taken long, it appears, for the Hawks to forget the long decades of stand-off with the Soviets.

I have thought for a while that these overtures to bring ex-USSR territories into NATO have been ill-conceived. They're almost a guarantee of provoking some form of negative reaction, whatever form that would take.

I know that it sounds paranoid but that doesn't mean someone, for whatever, isn't doing their level best to ensure another big war. If bottom-of-the-pile members of the general population like myself can see the pieces being moved into place, surely those in postions of power can? That's part of what makes me garner a sense of deliberateness about the manipulation of the global socio-economic and political shadow-play.