A Scary Development

[Sukerkin]

This was sent to me via e-mail and is from an on-line news service as best as I can tell. It is a Scottish newspaper and the website is called http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/
Published Date: 26 April 2009
By Jane Perlez and Pir Zubair Shah
in Peshawar, Pakistan

I can't find the link on the site anymore so I have reproduced what was sent to me in full. If this is considered to be a copyright issue then I shall have to have a rethink about what to post. Regardless, to me this is a very unsettling development in the internal political state of Pakistan.

Ah, I found it:

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/world/Class-war-pushes-Pakistan-close.5206619.jp

I'll trim the below to just excerpts:

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A CLASS revolt that exploits profound fissures between a small group of wealthy landlords and their landless tenants has been engineered by the Taliban to help them advance deep into Pakistan.
The strategy cleared a path to power for the Taliban in the Swat Valley, where the government allowed Islamic law to be imposed earlier this month, and it carries broad dangers for the rest of Pakistan, particularly the militants' main goal, the populous heartland of Punjab province.

In Swat, accounts from those who have fled now make clear that the Taliban seized control by pushing out about four dozen landlords who held the most power.

To do so, the militants organised peasants into armed gangs that became their shock troops, according to the residents, government officials and analysts.

The approach allowed the Taliban to offer economic spoils to people frustrated with lax and corrupt government even as the militants imposed a strict form of Islam through terror and intimidation.

"This was a bloody revolution in Swat," said a senior Pakistani official who oversees Swat, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation by the Taliban. "I wouldn't be surprised if it sweeps the established order of Pakistan."

<snip>

Two emerald mines that were dormant over the past few years have reopened under Taliban control. The militants have announced that they will receive one-third of the revenues.

<snip>

When provincial government bureaucrats visit Mingora, the capital of Swat, they must now follow the orders of the Taliban and sit on the floor, surrounded by Taliban bearing weapons, and in some cases wearing suicide bomber vests, the senior provincial official said.

In many areas of Swat the Taliban have demanded that each family give up one son for training as a Taliban fighter, said Mohammad Amad, executive director of a nongovernmental group, the Initiative for Development and Empowerment Axis.

<snip>

 

[theletch1]

Scary, indeed, especially as the established government in Islamabad doesn't seem to have any desire to quell any insurgency at the moment AND the fact that Pakistan has nukes. The one bright spot seems to be that the military of Pakistan doesn't seem to be that much under the control of the government either and appears to be a bit more inclined to keep control of the country out of the hands of the Taliban.

While this is certainly scary for us in the West can you imagine what's going on in the minds of those in India?

 

[celtic_crippler]

Pakistan has been in danger of being taken over by the Taliban for a while now. Funny how some things are reported on the evening news in the US and others aren't aint' it? What's up with that? Especially since Pakistan has nukes...the real kind...that can be launced at stuff... know what I mean? You want those in the hands of the Taliban?

 

[MA-Caver]

Pakistan has been in danger of being taken over by the Taliban for a while now. Funny how some things are reported on the evening news in the US and others aren't aint' it? What's up with that? Especially since Pakistan has nukes...the real kind...that can be launced at stuff... know what I mean? You want those in the hands of the Taliban?

I'm sure nobody wants those morons to have their hands on those nukes. This will mean more troops be sent overseas to help *ahem* police the problem.

 

[Thesemindz]

I'm sure we don't bear any responsibility for this by chasing these guys out of Afghanistan, then turning our attention elsewhere without cleaning up the mess, and acting to destabalize the Pakistani government.


-Rob

 

[tellner]

Start with the countryside.
Then go to the towns
Finally, take the cities.

Use the resentment of the peasants against the landowners and the government.

Train cadres to spread your message. Combine ideology with fear and rewards.

Don't bring your troops into the field until almost the end. Avoid set battles. Use irregulars and guerrilla tactics instead.

This is how the Chinese Communist Party, the VC/NVA, the Pathet Lao and a number or others succeeded. The Pakistani government is corrupt and unpopular. There's plenty of reason for class anger. The economy is in the toilet. There's already a large number of channels for the insurgents to get their message across. And since the Taliban is a creation of and probably still at least partly trained, funded and supported by the ISI it's not as if there's much effective opposition to them.

Meanwhile Pakistan didn't do anything as long as the Taliban was only fighting foreign invaders in Afghanistan. They thought they could cut a deal, first by implicitly ceding the border areas. Then they were sure the insurgency would be satisfied with the Swat region and the establishment of Sharia in the areas it controlled. Now they've given up another State, and Army convoys aren't allowed into the "shared" regions. Deals only work if your enemy wants something limited. The jihadis want it all, and having seen that there is no real opposition from Islamabad they have no reason to stop their demands.

Hell, they're even ahead on another of the Chairman's sayings - "Political struggle begins with the big knife. With a big knife you can get a sword. With a sword you can get a pistol. With a pistol you can get a rifle. With a rifle you can get anything." The mullah****ers started out with plenty of rifles.

The Taliban is doing everything right so far. Pakistan is doing everything wrong. American opposition to the Taliban and the loathing with which an increasing number of Pakistanis views the US puts the United States in a very deep hole. Most city dwellers don't like what's coming, but they are at a serious disadvantage in armed struggle against the long-bearded hillbillies.

Let's just hope those nuclear weapons and the scientists who made them can be secured.

Look forward to the fall of Pakistan sooner rather than later and more attacks in Kashmir and the rest of India.

 

[Sukerkin]

The additionally scary thing about this is that if someone like me can see it coming months (well, probably years actually) in advance, you would hope that the intelligence services of the world would have a better clue.

 

[Tez3]

The additionally scary thing about this is that if someone like me can see it coming months (well, probably years actually) in advance, you would hope that the intelligence services of the world would have a better clue.

Those intel service who rely on humint will, those that rely on satellites won't. You can be sure the Israelis will know exactly whats going on, ours will too because they'll be briefed by them lol but the goings on there have been noted. However as I said in another thread when the intel services in this country investigate sympathisers here there's a great outcry of 'it's against human rights' etc, the trouble is people can't have it both ways, either we investigate to the full extent of our powers and step on toes or we let people get away to do god knows what damage! Just my tuppenceworth.

 

[theletch1]

Your tuppence worth holds a great deal of value, Irene. That balance between "violating human rights" and gathering much needed information is a very tough act. I can well remember my time in the intel field as a young Marine, getting hold of some very hot info and being told to destroy it because it didn't come from an "approved" source. Rather irritating for the intel world and dangerous for the civilian population as well.