Probability of a Knok Out?

Discussion in 'General Martial Arts Talk' started by Rat, Oct 8, 2019.

  1. Rat

    Rat 2nd Black Belt

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    So this has been something that has popped in and out of my mind as a question, i have seen some points about it being harder than usually expected to knock someone out with bare hands/beat them. (which is true, so is the reverse sometimes)


    So i was curious if anyone could put a percentage on the like hood of causing a concussion on someone. (at least enough of one to have them cease being a threat) Also i forget, what is the average amount of force needed for a concussion and the different stages of one? And then what is the average persons punch strength and then compared to someone who does MA/combat sports. Or open hand.



    there is nothing really to this, i have seen some videos of someone being knocked out with one hit, and others where they take like 5 and don't get knocked out. So its kind of a randomness aspect to it, just wanted something more scientific if it currently exists.

    Obviously for it to be scientific there needs to be a stat for trained to untrained and different levels of concussion and different stages of readiness for both parties, so more than one stat needs to be present.
     
  2. Martial D

    Martial D Senior Master

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    There's lots of varying factors. The size of the guys in question. The location of the blow(clean shot to the chin is usually night night). The bone density of the person receiving the blow. The way they take the blow(tense vs relaxed, move with the blow, or into it)
    How many times they've been koed or concussed before also plays a roll(less connective tissue between the brain and the skull)

    And that's just some of it. Best to just aim for the chin and not think too hard on it ;)
     
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  3. Headhunter

    Headhunter Senior Master

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    What if what if what if...no there's no percentage because it's completely impossible to get a statistic based on every fight that's ever happened on earth anything would just be a guess.

    Fights are not a science or a maths problem. Fighting is nothing but pure madness and luck. I could walk up to Anthony Joshua in a bar and punch him and knock him out or I could go up to a random guy and hit him and he doesn't flinch. Who knows.

    Honestly get to a gym do some actual training and get off YouTube and you'll realise these statistics really are nonsense tbh
     
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  4. skribs

    skribs Senior Master

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    It's a lot more likely if you stop reading articles and start training regularly.
     
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  5. dvcochran

    dvcochran Senior Master

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    This is the kind of statistics that are impossible to gather and much, much harder to weigh. I certainly do not want to be the crash test dummy that gets repeatedly punched to measure the effects. Like others have said, there are dozens if not hundreds of variables, physically and otherwise.
    Any stats would be a subjective crap shoot.

    I can give you some personal experience. I have had at least six concussions (hits which knocked me out). One was from a dump truck so not relevant to this discussion. I can't say there was very much difference in the first three. Two were from kicks during competition, one from a hell of a punch in a street fight. I was, at the very least that the lights were out and it rocked my senses, but only for a matter of 2-3 seconds. Afterwards I had all the classics symptoms but after a day or two I had zero symptoms.
    The latter two were very different. One was a competition kick the last one was from being bulldozed by a cow and slamming the back of my head against a wooden post. The kick, I do not think was much of any different from the first two kick knockouts but I was out for about 30 seconds and the aftermath of symptoms were much worse. I had headaches for quite a while, something I did not have with the first three.
    The shot to the back of the head was brutal. I had blurred vision for a couple of months and headaches for around a year. It was probably a month before I did not wake in the morning feeling totally stoned.

    The moral to my story is concussions are not something to take lightly. They should never be locker room/cooler talk about who can take the hardest hit. I did (granted it was the 80's/90's) and without a doubt have chronic symptoms from them now.
    If you are a fighter the best advise I can give you is to listen to your hands. They will let you know if you are punching hard enough. Any good fighter of any longevity will tell you anything else is just spent energy.
     
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  6. Dirty Dog

    Dirty Dog MT Senior Moderator Staff Member

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    This is the sort of question that you'd know is ridiculous, if you actually trained.
     
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  7. JowGaWolf

    JowGaWolf Grandmaster

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    it's not possible to get stats on something like this. It takes 2 people make a KO happen. The person getting hit and the person doing the hit. You would first need to measure the variables for the hitter and then the variables for person getting KO, Then you'll need to get a good sample size of a population to base the stats on. But every you get someone new then your variables will change. Nothing would ever be consistent enough to get reliable data to show a probability.
     
  8. jks9199

    jks9199 Administrator Staff Member

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    OSHA, sports medicine programs, or neurology schools might have some info on raw force numbers to produce a knockout -- but the reality is that it's going to be so variable in the real world that they'll be meaningless.
     
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  9. ShortBridge

    ShortBridge Black Belt

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    I'm sure there have been studies and that there are numbers, but I can't imagine how they would useful in training, let alone a fight.

    I've had about 6 concussions in my life, the last one was something very mundane that happened in a men's league hockey game. Silly little collision that caught me just so. Would never make my highlight reel of voilent events. You've got to be careful with your head.
     
  10. isshinryuronin

    isshinryuronin Green Belt

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    These are all good factors. Re: Location - there are a few areas where nerve bundles are vulnerable or blood flow can be interrupted by a strike.. At these points a knockout will not take too much power, as the knockout is not the result of a general concussive power hit, but rather due to a specific shorting the nerve signals or blood flow to the brain. These points take some skill, or luck, to hit. If neither one of these seems to be with you in a fight, I'll second Martial D's sage advice to go for the chin before the opponent finds yours.

    Or, just forget about a KO and take out a knee or elbow. There are various ways to win a fight.
     
  11. Mitlov

    Mitlov Blue Belt

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    Probability of getting KOed by your own ski pole whipping around and striking you behind the ear, as you cartwheeled through the air after your skis collided with a fallen tree concealed under deep powder, if this was the 90s and nobody wore ski helmets?

    High.
     
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  12. skribs

    skribs Senior Master

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    Are you saying the probability is high, or adding "you are high" as a factor in determining the likelihood of a KO?
     
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  13. ShortBridge

    ShortBridge Black Belt

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    My first concussion was a ski, safety straps, no helmet. ... But we're off topic.

    Bottom line, protect your head and stop trying to engineer fight science. Pick a style, find a place to train, learn and gain experience.
     
  14. Headhunter

    Headhunter Senior Master

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    Hey the op trains very hard....his fingers get a great workout looking for all these articles and YouTube videos
     
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  15. Rat

    Rat 2nd Black Belt

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    How so? wanting some empirical data if it exists?

    Technically it could be from any combat sport or even sport as well, i was just in preference to the non sport fight and the fight based knockouts/concussions. I do know about the glaring issue with asking this question and thats many variables go into it. (but thats never stopped anyone from doing quite ambiguous/dubious studies in the past) Plus i also made the statement to that effect at the end in a semi rambly nature, that there are too many variable and all of them need to be taken into account and studied for a fully scientific test, same with the need for a control sample. It still hasn't stopped many studies being done, it just wont be as scientific as you can make it due to the nature of it, and that might be next to useless, but its still of interest and the subject of the thread is my interest in such a statistic.

    @jks9199 i will look into what they have and if they have anything on knockouts/concussion stats,thanks for the source. And its more for interest sake to see if anything exists on the topic. Just do me a favour, what does OSHA stand for, just in case there are multiples or a link to their main website would suffice in lieu.
     
  16. Dirty Dog

    Dirty Dog MT Senior Moderator Staff Member

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    Because you'd know it's utterly impossible to generate meaningful numbers for a question like this.
     
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  17. skribs

    skribs Senior Master

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    Occupational Safety and Health Administration.

    As to the data itself, that data is useless even to experienced fighters (as @Dirty Dog said), because every person and every fight is different. If your study determines that X force is the mean force to create a knockout, so you develop your punches to X + 1 force so you can deliver the KO, what happens when someone is more resilient? Maybe you develop so you can deliver X - 1 to avoid concussions, but now someone is less resilient and you injure them? It's a fruitless effort.

    Regardless, you're more likely to get a knockout blow by being technically proficient in your punch, and using the strategies and tactics learned through sparring to set up the blow and deliver it, than you are by knowing what X is.

    Get out of the computer chair and go to classes. Go to classes regularly. Stick at it for at least a couple of years. Take everything you read or see on the Internet with a massive grain of salt, and just go get some techniques and experience. Ask questions relevant to your training. Ask for advice on what you're learning, but mostly ask it from your Master or Instructor or Coach, and from the peers at your school. Use MartialTalk, YouTube, and the articles you find as a supplement to what you learn in class, and take all of it with a huge grain of salt.
     
  18. Headhunter

    Headhunter Senior Master

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    Yeah it's not like every kid enters the data into a world wide spreadsheet every time they have a fight. Maybe for sports you could take a slight average but even then there's so many sport leagues and amateur contests that are never seen by more than a few hundred people it's physically impossible.
     
  19. Headhunter

    Headhunter Senior Master

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    Of course it doesn't exist. Why do you care about this data so much? What does it matter to you? Genuine question for someone who doesn't train why does it matter what these statistics say?

    As pretty much everyone has said. The majority of people who trains don't care about this stuff because they know it's a pointless exercise and frankly isn't important. Stop worrying about what's said on the Internet or what a YouTube video shows....just do some martial arts. He'll do boxercise it's better than nothing. I guarantee if you start training you'll look back at these threads in a few years and you'll realise how silly they are. I'm not trying to offend you but honestly the probability of a knock out...who cares.
     
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  20. Headhunter

    Headhunter Senior Master

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    One thing I'll add to what I have said.

    Do you think Bruce Lee cared about the statistics of a ko?
    Do you think Helio Gracie cared about statistics of a ko?
    Do you think ed Parker cared about statistics of a ko?
    Do you think Jhoon Rhee cared about the statistics of a ko?
    Do you think ip man cared about the statistics of a ko?


    More likely than not the answer is no. Because they focused their time on training and learning stuff that can actually be of use to them. The best way to learn about martial arts is log off the computer get off the couch and get into a marital art school. You're learning nothing from these articles and videos. You can hit that dislike button all you like my friend but it's the truth I'm afraid. To learn about martial arts you need a teacher and you need training partners
     
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