IamBaytor said:
The terrorists are probably afraid of Bush. He is not afraid to take the fight to where they are. I think that they will probably think that if something happens before the election, Bush is more likely to be elected, and they will have to deal with him for four more years. By attacking after the elections, they can "win" no matter what. If Bush is in office they attack to "punish" us. If Kerry is in office, they attack to test his resolve.
I know there is a lot of "probably" and "maybe" and general assumption in this, that's why it's just my opinion. Frankly, I really hope I'm wrong. I hope that none of this happens at all.
I hadn't thought about delaying the election...that's a good point to bring up.
I think to ascribe 'fear' to a religious zealot is a difficult proposition. If they die in the course of defending their beliefs, they are rewarded greatly in their afterlife. It makes no difference if they die in a major American city or a cave on the Afghan-Pakistani border. This, of course, is the challenge of "winning the hearts and minds" that is talked about when rationall discussing the US policy towards Islam in general, and Muslem societies in specific.
Further, it has been said that the fundamentalist Muslems who are engaged in this battle for a New Caliphate, have the ability to take the long view; for them, this war against Secular Capitalism, Christianity, Judeaism, and anthing else they are fighting against, has a 100 year time frame. In this window of time, Bush is a small, almost insignificant part of the story. It is ironic that Bush is getting much credit for the fact that no new terrorist attack has occurred on American soil since 911 ... however, we dont' know that any other attacks have been planned either. Certainly, no one has been arrested for planning such an attack (excluding Jose Padilla - who, like Richard Reidm the shoe bomber - may possibly have been just a copy-cat wanna be).
If there is an attack on American soil in the time before the election, it absolutely will have an effect on the poll results; which way, I can not predict. But I think the biggest effect would be a painful blow to democracy. We could quite possible start to see a further erosion of rights and liberties; all in the name of fighting a war on terrorism. Soon, we will not be able to speak freely (like on this message board). Soon, we will not have the right to
not bear arms (like Switzerland?). Soon, we will not have the right of peaceable assembly (as in protesting the President).
A terrost attack prior to the election would not be about whether it is Kerry or Bush holding court in the oval office ... it would be about, do we continue to allow a government of the people, by the people and for the people will long exist.
Mike