Normalcy Bias and Salman Rushdie

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Wing Woo Gar

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The emotion comes into play when we calculate acceptable loss. The response should be rational and effective. The call to action, however, and the urgency with which we approach the issue can be (and in some cases should be) emotional. It's about where the threshold lies, and why many of the things we take for granted exist. For example, why we have OSHA and don't let kids work unsupervised in factories any more. Why we have building codes. Why we don't let children under 21 by liquor. And on and on.
I think I understand your meaning. This is an emotional topic for many people. My grandmother committed suicide with a .32 auto. She was able to fire the gun twice, the third pull of the trigger caused a stovepipe jam in the pistol. She died of blood loss subsequently. I was the one to discover her body. I was twelve.
 

Wing Woo Gar

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I saw a man shoot and kill another man in the temple with a 1911 pistol while walking with my grandfather when I was 5 years old. I will never forget it. I tell this because I dont want anyone to think I dont take the topic seriously. I have seen an awful lot of violence in my younger life, I think it may affect my opinions somewhat.
 

Monkey Turned Wolf

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If we think through the problem then we should be able to Identify the problem. Identify the facts. Like the graph that was put up. Then explore possible solutions and possible challenges that come with implementing any give solution.

Think of it as if we as a team, are responsible for finding a solution. Got at it like that then you'll be far from the nonsense.
I agree with all of this. We should be able to identify issues, and come up with solutions. But when those solutions are policy changes, legal changes, or forced cultural changes, then it is politics. Which, while still being worth discussing, is no longer allowed on this forum.

At one point, it actually was allowed here. But people were not able to stay rational and it was causing opinions to seep through, in a similar way it does now but even moreso. So it's banned. Our recommendation is to go to US Message Board Political Discussion Forum if you would like to discuss something specific
 

Buka

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You can share what the law itself is. Discussing whether or not that should be the law and if the law should change; (ie: whether or not guns should be banned/what guns should be banned, among other things) is where it gets to politics. At least from where we are concerned.
Thanks, brother.
 

Buka

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Hi Buka,

Not official just my take on it.

Comments like: "They always want to ..." Or " well people should just ..."
The generic and plural brings in the general population and this leads to Political discussion, especially trying to identify 'They' and ' People'.

If I was to say, I was standing in front of a building (Security) and a drive by happened and detailed the situation of no time to react, and the after math of sending the guy next to me home to take a shower (not clocking out - no one else needed to know his body's reaction) and get clean clothes.

To me this is a specific case.
Now taking this case and saying well I expect the guys in the car were *Insert racial or economic profile* and this now becomes the line for political. Then the next posts is political or even closer until the frog in the water while it is heating slowly didn't jump out and we have frog soup / politics. The slow creep is what gets the thread and posters / members down that rabbit hole.

If I was to post they pulled a gun and I was in the right spot to move it offline and grapple with the person (not saying this ever happened) then that is still data.
If I were to say I raised my hands and stated, "You are in charge, what do you want?" (* Did happen *) . This is not political.
Yet if someone posts after me and says that the person with the firearm should never have been there, or that there should be laws, or that other people should have reacted differently then this crosses (slowly to fast) into politics.

A topless or shear topped woman in an add for female underwear is not porn in the initial intent for the targeted audience , yet it could be used for porn in a different situation.

So not being able to clearly identify it is not a bad thing. Context really does matter.

I hope my rambling kind of helped.
Thanks, Rich, it did help.
 

Buka

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I think I understand your meaning. This is an emotional topic for many people. My grandmother committed suicide with a .32 auto. She was able to fire the gun twice, the third pull of the trigger caused a stovepipe jam in the pistol. She died of blood loss subsequently. I was the one to discover her body. I was twelve.
My heart goes out to you, brother.
 

JowGaWolf

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international disconnect between firearm ownership and suicide rates. In short, the availability of a gun did not affect the probability of a successful suicide.
The concern I have with this is that it appears to be an international comparison and not all countries have the same access to guns that the US does. How can there be a comparison of gun related suicides with a country that doesn't have the same access to guns? Wouldn't the numbers be off?
 

Wing Woo Gar

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I agree with all of this. We should be able to identify issues, and come up with solutions. But when those solutions are policy changes, legal changes, or forced cultural changes, then it is politics. Which, while still being worth discussing, is no longer allowed on this forum.

At one point, it actually was allowed here. But people were not able to stay rational and it was causing opinions to seep through, in a similar way it does now but even moreso. So it's banned. Our recommendation is to go to US Message Board Political Discussion Forum if you would like to discuss something specific
You could just lock it. I think everyone said their piece. I have to say I am impressed with how everyone kept their cool and were actually discussing in a positive way. Thanks to all involved including the moderators.
 

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The concern I have with this is that it appears to be an international comparison and not all countries have the same access to guns that the US does. How can there be a comparison of gun related suicides with a country that doesn't have the same access to guns? Wouldn't the numbers be off?

You would look to see if there are more suicides in total I imagine.

And then skew the results to whatever bias you are trying to sell.

We have less than Texas by the way. Which I use for easy comparison because the populations match.
 

JowGaWolf

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You didn't monitor the bathtub, you monitored your son. You didn't monitor the bathtub, why would you monitor the guns?
To me is the same if my son was in it then I was monitoring the tub as well. For example if the water is running then I make sure that the water temperature didn't change to hot

I always made sure it was clean before us and I always kept an ear open for water running when it shouldn't be on. If I tell my wife that I'm going to monitor the pool then that includes the pool and everything in or around it. I don't separate the 2 when it comes to monitoring. When I monitor my guns it's to check that everything is in order is in order and that nothing has been tampered with. Maybe that's just me but that's fine since I'm sharing what I do and what monitoring means to me.
 

JowGaWolf

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why would you monitor the guns?
Aren't serial numbers a way to monitor guns? It's not real time monitoring but it does allow fit some aspect of monitoring right?
 
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Steve

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Most studies bear out that it's just the method not the attempt. Suicide attempts remain more or less static, outside of the Suicide Contagion effect. What changes is what method is used. Even this report sort of acknowledges this when they write, "Men who owned handguns were eight times more likely than men who didnt to die of self-inflicted gunshot wounds." Well, duh.
Right. That is exactly what the reports say. It's the difference between a suicide attempt and a suicide. As I said, someone who attempts suicide by drug overdose is only 3% likely to succeed, where someone who attempts suicide by gun is up around 85% likely to succeed. The takeaway is that people who are suicidal shouldn't have ready access to firearms.

That people spend a disproportionate amount of time worrying about the less likely events does, in fact, indicate that something is broken. It's human risk assessment.
I don't believe the time trying to prevent school shootings is disproportionate.

Okay. Let's try a different approach. You allege there is no real risk. It's not an actual problem. Right?

If I want to know the non-political evaluation of risk, where it is as cold and calculated as possible, I'm going to check out an actuarial analysis. I mean, life insurance companies HAVE to know how long you are probably going to live. The entire business model depends upon an accurate analysis of life expectancy.


According to actuaries, firearm related deaths are significant, and do have a direct impact on life expectancy in the USA. The link above provides the abstract for an actuarial study from 2005. The author says, "I show that firearm violence shortens the life of an average American by 104 days (151 days for white males, 362 days for black males). Among all fatal injuries, only motor vehicle accidents have a stronger effect."

Articles since then highlight that as recently as 2018, "Firearm fatalities are the third leading cause of injury-related death, just behind motor vehicle fatalities. Indeed, in recent years, the difference between the two has been less than 0.5 percent, and firearm fatalities have now exceeded automobile fatalities in 21 states."


This isn't political, and as the article linked above says, "We deliberately do not take a stand on policy issues related to firearms. Rather, we focus on the associated insurance risks, share known data and call for further research."

Point is, if this is a bunch of handwringing and media driven hysteria, as you would like for us to believe, these guys would say so. Because for them, it's about money.
 

Steve

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Ok thats the response being labeled not the event itself. I can imagine people having a hysterical response to children being shot, in my opinion, it is completely understandable to be horrified. That shouldnt be leading the way we go about creating solutions.
The reaction, that rational, reasonable reaction to be horrified, should provide the moral, ethical, and emotional energy to driving for A solution. Right? To be clear, the discussion in this thread so far isn't (but should be) about what we can and should do to help folks (all folks, including and perhaps in particular, children in schools) from being shot. Self defense.

Not about that at all. It's not practical. Instead, some folks are suggesting it's really not that big a deal. It's just overblown. Not as many kids get shot in schools as the media suggests. It's hysteria. Hype. And besides, it's not even AR-15s. They're more likely to be shot by handguns. It's an acceptable number of kids... a relative few in the grand scheme of things.

Reprehensible. I am emotional. Proudly so. That's the right reaction, IMO, and a good starting place for discussions about self defense.
 

Steve

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There will be some exceptions where life is just horrible even when all the right stuff is done. a realistic goal would be to reduce the risks which in turn should reduce the tragedy. because there is a human element there will always be an exception or a gap. There will be periods where things are not as stringent as it should be. where we let our guard down or have blind spots

I don't know any parents who wouldn't break down at such a lost. I wouldn't be. That would be an instant trip to multiple doctors and some spiritual guidance for something that I could never forgive myself. I know there are parents who are the opposite but I don't communicate with those type of parents ( not referring to the person you know) At least I hope I don't.
Had a coworker back in the late 90s whose three year old kid got outside and wandered behind his car as he was heading to the store. He backed over and killed his son. It literally ruined his life. The grief, the guilt... he quit his job, his wife left him, and he ended up taking his life.
 

drop bear

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To me is the same if my son was in it then I was monitoring the tub as well. For example if the water is running then I make sure that the water temperature didn't change to hot

I always made sure it was clean before us and I always kept an ear open for water running when it shouldn't be on. If I tell my wife that I'm going to monitor the pool then that includes the pool and everything in or around it. I don't separate the 2 when it comes to monitoring. When I monitor my guns it's to check that everything is in order is in order and that nothing has been tampered with. Maybe that's just me but that's fine since I'm sharing what I do and what monitoring means to me.

Or pool fences. Would be an analogy.
 

Wing Woo Gar

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The reaction, that rational, reasonable reaction to be horrified, should provide the moral, ethical, and emotional energy to driving for A solution. Right? To be clear, the discussion in this thread so far isn't (but should be) about what we can and should do to help folks (all folks, including and perhaps in particular, children in schools) from being shot. Self defense.

Not about that at all. It's not practical. Instead, some folks are suggesting it's really not that big a deal. It's just overblown. Not as many kids get shot in schools as the media suggests. It's hysteria. Hype. And besides, it's not even AR-15s. They're more likely to be shot by handguns. It's an acceptable number of kids... a relative few in the grand scheme of things.

Reprehensible. I am emotional. Proudly so. That's the right reaction, IMO, and a good starting place for discussions about self defense.
I understand your point and appreciate your perspective. To be fair, I dont think anyone, however practical or logic minded, would say that even one person of any age is an acceptable number. Your emotional response is understandable to me. It may help to try to speak each others language in these discussions. I have to believe that the differences in opinion here are far fewer than the similarities. Common ground is the road forward for everyone. There can be no resolution without starting there. Honestly, Im not sure we necessarily disagree very much at all. The media are competing corporate business, we as people are their customers and their content. They necessarily view us as such. This relationship can obviously lead to actions and decisions by these businesses that dont have positive results for people. I dont want to generalize here, but it does somewhat temper the lens with which I view any type of media, from any source whatsoever.
 

Wing Woo Gar

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Had a coworker back in the late 90s whose three year old kid got outside and wandered behind his car as he was heading to the store. He backed over and killed his son. It literally ruined his life. The grief, the guilt... he quit his job, his wife left him, and he ended up taking his life.
Thats an awfully sad story.
 

JowGaWolf

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This has nothing to do with guns, outside of their choice of a tool, and much more to do with the person committing the crime. In almost every case there were multiple red flags, and often even reports to law enforcement (or even the FBI!) without any true followup.
This is something I often ask myself. The thing of multiple red flags. Is great if you can catch them but a Lo of times they will slip through. You may see a red flag today. I may see one next week but we don't know that we are both seeing the same red flags exorcism if we are strangers and don't realize that we know the same person. In terms of reporting the red flag match up usually doesn't come until the death comes and then that's when people "compare notes"


We have less than Texas by the way. Which I use for easy comparison because the populations match.
I thought about that too in terms of numbers. That it may not be good to compare all of the US as a whole. It would seem to compare population size and go from there. Especially in the U.S where geographic location may have an effect. I'm not sure if this interest anyone but it has some numbers related to death. This page is the suicide page but if you click on the State it will be show other mortality rates for that state.

Stats of the State - Suicide Mortality
 
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