Is China Gearing Up For War With Japan?

celtic_crippler

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Article and Video: http://ntdtv.org/en/news/china/2013-02-11/chinese-troop-movements-signal-war-.html

The troop movements come after months of escalating tensions between China and Japan over the disputed territory of the Diaoyun, or Senkaku islands and theyre known in Japan. Its caused international worries that the two countries may be on the cusp of war. Both sides have scrambled jets and warships in the region. In January, during naval exercise near the disputed waters, Chinese warships reportedly directed their targeting radar at a Japanese vessel.

...bothersome.
 

Tez3

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Japan has been pushing China's buttons over these islands in the belief that if China declares war the USA will rush in and defend Japan. I think we may need to worry more about Japan than we do China, Japanese nationalism has only been lying under the surface,it's never gone away. They refuse to apologise not just to the Chinese, Koreans and Europeans for atrocities committed during the last war, they don't actually see them the same way as we do and if the mighty Japan can rise again they'll make it happen. If they have to poke the tiger that is Japan they will and they are banking on the USA's hatred of communism to make sure China is seen as the bad guys here. Not that the Chinese aren't making noises but we need to watch Japan as much if not more than China.

http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/22560/japans_nationalism_is_a_sign_of_weakness.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/16/japanese-hawk-victory-fears-tension


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20078481
 

James Kovacich

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There's probably a lot more to this that meets the eye. China is in the same position with the Philipenes. In fact, the Islands that they claimed were theirs they built a landing strip without settling the dispute with the PI. It looks like they are pushing their weight around and making strategic moves for military superiority.

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Xue Sheng

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Japan has been pushing China's buttons over these islands in the belief that if China declares war the USA will rush in and defend Japan. I think we may need to worry more about Japan than we do China, Japanese nationalism has only been lying under the surface,it's never gone away. They refuse to apologise not just to the Chinese, Koreans and Europeans for atrocities committed during the last war, they don't actually see them the same way as we do and if the mighty Japan can rise again they'll make it happen. If they have to poke the tiger that is Japan they will and they are banking on the USA's hatred of communism to make sure China is seen as the bad guys here. Not that the Chinese aren't making noises but we need to watch Japan as much if not more than China.

Agreed, the thing with China these days is you always have to look at from the point of view of "is it a good idea financially to do this" if not, and it isn't, they will do nothing. However if attacked they will respond finances be damned.

China is very good at manipulation of the East however and if they are making this a media event it makes me wonder what they are really up to that they do not want us looking at...and I have to tell you I think it is more along the lines of Cyber warfare capabilities they are working on and using this as a distraction for the rest of the world
 

Tez3

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There won't be a 'one side good, one side bad' in this case. Both countries have agendas, both have a history with each other, Japan's war crimes in China aren't forgotten I'm sure. the Japanese still think they should have won the last war. Both sides need careful watching.
 

Xue Sheng

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There won't be a 'one side good, one side bad' in this case. Both countries have agendas, both have a history with each other, Japan's war crimes in China aren't forgotten I'm sure. the Japanese still think they should have won the last war. Both sides need careful watching.

I know China is not all too happy with Japan, especially the older generations but many of the younger not so much...but they are not forgotten. But then there is that whole apology thing that did not make the PRC all to happy. But that is not enough, IMO, for China to go to war with Japan since it is likely to bring in the US and no one wants that.

The thing about China is that knowing there agenda is not always easy and very rarely obvious. And if you think you know there agenda then watch out because it is likely something else they are doing that is far from obvious. Japan has concerned me for years and more so when, many years ago, I found the USA gave them a Navy and more yet when they approached the UN saying they want to be aggressive allies in battle.

But it is of concern and it needs to be watched
 
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celtic_crippler

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What makes you think they don't want the US involved?

What makes you think the US is currently able to involve itself? We're stretched pretty thin at the moment.
 

Xue Sheng

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What makes you think they don't want the US involved?

What makes you think the US is currently able to involve itself? We're stretched pretty thin at the moment.

Were both Nuclear powers for one thing and historically China has never been interested in anything that was not considered China at one point or another in its past.

That and the Chinese military does not think it has the capability to defeat us yet, and yes they said that. However they are working on getting to a point where they feel they could and I cant remember if they said mid-2013 or mid-2014 as an estimate but they were, if I remember correctly fairly sure about mid-2015 (however this assumes we have little or no advancement). But that does not mean they would attack anyone if pushed. They like much of the rest of the planet is a little scared of us, we are a bit crazy at the moment on the world stage invading various countries and China has never ever been able to figure out why we care what goes on within the borders of another country.

They do not want war with us because that would destroy both their economy and ours and we owe them a lot of money. China is not the aggressive nation many in the USA feel it is in and, if nothing else, they tend to be real concerned about their economy. And they would be just as happy becoming the #1 economy on the planet and making us a second world nation, probably more so actually

But here is the thing, China has played the Eastern part of the world for years, they have controlled a whole heck of a lot more than people know, hell they controlled a vote in Taiwan by sending in ships, flying jets around and say don't vote for that guy. As soon as the guy they told everyone not to vote for got back into office...they took their ships and planes and went home happy they got the guy they wanted back in office.

You can never look at what is going on with China from the point of view of a western power because it has never been that direct. Read Sun Tzu the Art of War and you will pretty much get the way the government approaches just about everything.

I have been watching this for a while now and wondering why China was doing so much Sabre rattling and why were they showing off their military so much when they never did that before. Then after some studying (job related) I find that I tend to feel it is, as always subterfuge. They are working real hard on Cyber warfare capabilities and if we are also worried about the standing military and the saber rattling that we see nothing else. That gives then a lot of free time to work on their Cyber capabilities. This is pure speculation but based on the history of China and the region, it is the only thing that is making sense to me.

You can say what you want and I will not get into an argument here or even much more discussion but China does not want war with the US any more than the US government wants war with China.

And you are right, we are stretched pretty thin and that is a good reason for us to not want to be at war with China. But even if that meant we were going to sit this one out or look for a diplomatic solution, I doubt China would do anything unless seriously provoked.. by their definition not ours..that is of course if they are not the same and I am guessing they are not
 

WC_lun

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China is not going to do anything serious unless Japan does something really stupid, like fire upon a Chinese naval ship or something. China will do what it thinks is in its best interest, much as the US does. War, particularly which would involve a major ecomic trading partner is not in thier best interest. Yes, they are sabre rattling, but I believe much of that is like a rattle snake shaking its tail. They are saying, look we are here and we can hurt you. Don't mess with us. I think people forget that China may be many things, but its' government is anything but stupid or self destructive.
 

Tez3

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I think the tendancy is to think that China is always wrong because it is 'communist' and will always be the ones who initiate anything that is wrong. Japan because it was occupied by America after the war is seen as being a little America. However neither of these countries I believe think as we do in the West and we shouldn't try to second guess them as if they were also Western.
 
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If you factor in the "currency war" and take into consideration the very real possibility of an international economic collapse, what is their motivation then?
 

Xue Sheng

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I think the tendancy is to think that China is always wrong because it is 'communist' and will always be the ones who initiate anything that is wrong. Japan because it was occupied by America after the war is seen as being a little America. However neither of these countries I believe think as we do in the West and we shouldn't try to second guess them as if they were also Western.

Nah, I dont look as either side as wrong, it is a nationalism thing with some history behind it. But if you really look at it the whole thing is basically a fight over a rock and I dont see China going to war over a rock that is unless they are attacked first There is more to this, we just dont really know for certain what it is yet...and we may never know for that matter.
 
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celtic_crippler

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Nah, I don’t look as either side as wrong, it is a nationalism thing with some history behind it. But if you really look at it the whole thing is basically a fight over a rock and I don’t see China going to war over a rock… that is unless they are attacked first… There is more to this, we just don’t really know for certain what it is yet...and we may never know for that matter.

How likely do you think it is that Japan might strike first? Based on your research.
 

Xue Sheng

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How likely do you think it is that Japan might strike first? Based on your research.

No Idea, I have done more reseach on China as well as things Cyber Warefare and the big 3 in that area...Japan is not one of them.

Pure speculation here but I am guessing that would depend on how certain Japan is that the US and/or the UN would come to thier aide
 

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http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/22/world/asia/philippines-china-territorial-dispute

" Hong Kong (CNN) - The Philippines raised the stakes in its maritime territorial dispute with China by announcing Tuesday it is taking the case to an international tribunal.

The two Asian nations have been at loggerheads over China's claims of sovereignty over large swathes of the South China Sea, one of several tense disagreements between Beijing and its neighbors over waters in the region."

I not blaming China, but from an outsider, it seems like they are possibly "staking claims" to build up their military superiority in their region. In the long run, looking to own the region.

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Xue Sheng

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http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/22/world/asia/philippines-china-territorial-dispute

" Hong Kong (CNN) - The Philippines raised the stakes in its maritime territorial dispute with China by announcing Tuesday it is taking the case to an international tribunal.

The two Asian nations have been at loggerheads over China's claims of sovereignty over large swathes of the South China Sea, one of several tense disagreements between Beijing and its neighbors over waters in the region."

I not blaming China, but from an outsider, it seems like they are possibly "staking claims" to build up their military superiority in their region. In the long run, looking to own the region.

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Could be, but to be honest, by comparison to the other countries in the region, they already have military superiority. Neither the Philippines nor Japan stands a chance against China by themselves militarily... and the Philippines would stand much less of a chance than Japan.
 

James Kovacich

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Could be, but to be honest, by comparison to the other countries in the region, they already have military superiority. Neither the Philippines nor Japan stands a chance against China by themselves militarily... and the Philippines would stand much less of a chance than Japan.

I agree. I'm thinking they're thinking long term and are taking steps to put us in check when we're in their backyard.

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