Is Bin Laden on the back burner?

[Tames D]

Are we still looking for him? Is he still a threat? Why can't we find him? Any thoughts?

 

[Don Roley]

If he is hiding out in Pakistan like many believe, then there is a hell of a lot of stuff that we would have to deal with aside from the boom boom part. Some of the regions there are outside the control of the central government, but to go in unilaterally would cause a lot of problems about their borders, might cause Musahreff to fall and would lead to Islamisits coming to power in a nation with nuclear weapons.

If we figure out he is riding in a car down a road in Afghanistan we can put a hellfire missle on him in an instant. Hence, he probably will not go anywhere near the Afghani border.

 

[Jonathan Randall]

If he is hiding out in Pakistan like many believe, then there is a hell of a lot of stuff that we would have to deal with aside from the boom boom part. Some of the regions there are outside the control of the central government, but to go in unilaterally would cause a lot of problems about their borders, might cause Musahreff to fall and would lead to Islamisits coming to power in a nation with nuclear weapons.

If we figure out he is riding in a car down a road in Afghanistan we can put a hellfire missle on him in an instant. Hence, he probably will not go anywhere near the Afghani border.

That's what I'm thinking. Most people have no idea how tenuous is Musharaff's hold upon Pakistan. The Islamic extremists there are one bullet or bomb away from seizing power. You think Iran is a problem? How about a NUCLEAR Armed Pakistan controlled by Fundamentalists wishing to wage Jihad against both the West AND a NUCLEAR Armed India. The term "Powder keg" doesn't do justice to the situation there.

The "safest" place for Bin Laden IS in the tribal regions of Pakistan as Don says. Another possibility is some part of Indonesia. Afghanistan? Least likely spot, IMO - except now and then near the border area.

 

[michaeledward]

He is, and always has been, more useful alive and uncaptured than either of the alternate states. He presents very little legitimate threat to Western Society. Our reaction to his phantom menace, however, does pose such a threat.

 

[Drac]

Are we still looking for him? Is he still a threat? Why can't we find him? Any thoughts?

Interesting question..Haven't heard anything about him in awhile...

 

[michaeledward]

Interesting question..Haven't heard anything about him in awhile...

Today is his 50th Birthday. - Just sayin'

 

[tellner]

Bush pulled the teams that were hunting him out and closed down the operations to find him years ago. In contrast to the 9/11 "documentary" which lied that Clinton nixed killing him it turns out that UN troops in Afghanistan really did have him literally in their sights a year or so back and were told by the US command that he wasn't a priority.

As michael points out, he's much more useful alive than dead. Dead, a chapter closes. Live he can be the bogeyman under the bed and scare us into quivering terrified obedience forever.

 

[CoryKS]

I don't care if he's alive or dead, as long as we're killing large quantities of his minions, associates, and well-wishers. My fear is that if we do kill him, there will be a temptation to call an end to the hunt for other al Qaeda goons. So yeah, as Michael said, he is more useful alive. But I hope we kill him eventually.

 

[jazkiljok]

I don't care if he's alive or dead, as long as we're killing large quantities of his minions, associates, and well-wishers. My fear is that if we do kill him, there will be a temptation to call an end to the hunt for other al Qaeda goons. So yeah, as Michael said, he is more useful alive. But I hope we kill him eventually.

and one man is not at the root cause of our problems with the jihading movement. Osama is a martyr in waiting-- at this stage of the game, perhaps more useful dead to the movement than alive. he's not the one sending out the tape messages anymore-- al qaeda has moved on from him as the focal point of the movement.

In many ways we got our man responsible for the 9/11 attacks (and others)-- [SIZE=-1]Khalid Shake Mohammed was consider the mastermind-- osama just took the applause,( like any other CEO.) Khalid was a significant capture and gets overlooked cause of his lack of name recognition.






[/SIZE]

 

[Don Roley]

Bush pulled the teams that were hunting him out and closed down the operations to find him years ago.

I'd like a source for this please. If the NYT says it, I will believe the story. If just another nutty site on the internet is spreading the story, probably not. As it is, I classify this in the same light as the conspiracy theories surrounding 9-11, AIDS and bird flu.

 

[Don Roley]

Speak of the Devil.

I do not know how reliable this newspaper is. But it does seem to paint a picture quite different from what some have tried to say here.

America is stepping up its hunt for Osama bin Laden by dispatching additional CIA operatives and paramilitary officers to Pakistan to kill or capture the al-Qa'eda leader.


Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding in the Pakistani region bordering Afghanistan
US officials said that the mission is intended to intensify the pressure on the terrorist leader, who turns 50 tomorrow, and perhaps force him into making a mistake. He is widely believed to be hiding in the region bordering Afghanistan.

Satellite photographs and details of communications intercepts were given to President Musharraf of Pakistan last week by Stephen Kappes, deputy director of the CIA, as part of a strategy to persuade him to give US intelligence agencies more assistance.

Mr Kappes, a Middle East specialist who has served in Pakistan, travelled to Islamabad to brief Gen Musharraf along with Vice President Dick Cheney. His detailed presentation showed evidence of al-Qa'eda building its strength on Pakistani soil.

"Reports that the trail has gone stone cold are not correct," an American official said afterwards. "We are very much increasing our efforts there."

You can read the rest by following the link.

 

[michaeledward]

Gee, I wonder if "Stepping Up" means, in any way, that at some point in the past, the search was 'Stepped Down'?

 

[jazkiljok]

Speak of the Devil.

I do not know how reliable this newspaper is. But it does seem to paint a picture quite different from what some have tried to say here.



You can read the rest by following the link.

which is an interesting counterpoint this article back sept of 2006. notice how the stone cold comment and the "not" stone cold comment come from unnamed officials-- the anonymous source always sound authoratative but who's comment to take serious when you don't know who's saying it.

everyone agrees that if osama's alive he's hiding out in the nether regions of pakistan. which is a vast no man's land which poses daunting problems for pakastani intelligence services let alone foreign ones.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/09/AR2006090901105.html

 

[michaeledward]

For the record, I, although completely uninformed on the matter, am by no means working under the assumption that Mr. Bin Laden is in Pakistan, or the Afghanistan mountains bordering Pakistan. I think it is just as likely that he could be in Indonesia. With more than 1 billion Muslem's on the planet, there are probably many places where he could be.

As the article hinted, some reports in US Intelligence have reported that Bin Laden's trail has gone "stone cold" ... meaning our intelligence officials have no idea where he is.

At best, I am thinking its a 50/50 shot that he is in the mountains of Pakistan.

 

[MA-Caver]

I see Bin Laden as a Hydra, a very dangerous and very poisionous hydra. Cut off the head of that snake and two more grow in it's place. Killing Bin Laden would make him a martyr and the repercussions of those who want to "avenge" him could be terrible for the American people... especially here at home. How many sleeper cells have been found since 9-11? Probably quite a few... more than we are lead to believe.
School of thought says that by announcing the capture of this and that sleeper cell only puts the other uncaptured ones on higher alert (irony of that huh?) and go deeper into hiding or worse initiate whatever plans they have a lot sooner and catch us off guard with the loss of more American lives here at home.
But there probably are more sleeper cells left here in this country. Waiting for that activation e-mail/phone call whatever.
Sounds so cold war-ish doesn't it... but it's probable to say the least.
Killing Bin Laden would provide justice to those American lives lost on that terrible day, but at what cost is that justice?
So probably best to burn out the cells until there is no-one left to avenge him... that is fatalistic thinking and ignorant. There will always be someone who holds that man in high esteem and regard and will happily blow themselves up (or expose themselves to a deadly virus and walk among Americans) to avenge the man.
It's a double edged sword to be sure.

 

[Ray]

and one man is not at the root cause of our problems ....

That's not what the democrats think

PS: (yes, I am quoting you out of context).

 

[Don Roley]

For the record, I, although completely uninformed on the matter, am by no means working under the assumption that Mr. Bin Laden is in Pakistan, or the Afghanistan mountains bordering Pakistan. I think it is just as likely that he could be in Indonesia. With more than 1 billion Muslem's on the planet, there are probably many places where he could be.

As the article hinted, some reports in US Intelligence have reported that Bin Laden's trail has gone "stone cold" ... meaning our intelligence officials have no idea where he is.

At best, I am thinking its a 50/50 shot that he is in the mountains of Pakistan.

The Indonesia idea is only appealing if you believe that all muslims support terrorists and would not report him if he was spotted. If you think that there are muslims who do not automatically support terrorism, then you have to think about where Osama would stand out the most and be more likely reported. And an arab like him in a sea of Asian faces without the ablity to speak the locla language would be a great challenge.

The bad lands of Pakistan are not safe because everyone is Muslim. It is a safe place because;

1- there is virtually no central goverenment presence.
2- the people there are widly independent and resent the central government.
3- The people there have fiercely loyal ties to the Taliban through their shared tribe affiliation of Pashtum. And since Osama is buds with the Taliban, the loyality passes off to him as well.

None of these things are true in Indonesia. Unlike the bad lands of Pakistan, people in Indonesia can call the government and have a battalion on the ground in a few hours, if not less. There is no free areas where they can act openly. The terrorist attacks like the Bali bombing are urban operations and they have to hide in the populace. Experts are not even certain that there has been any face to face meetings in the last few years between anyone in Osama's circle and Indonesia. There are areas of Thailand and the Philipines where there are "no go" areas for the government and groups with known ties to Osama operating.

But the trouble is how likely would Osama be to move himself away from control like that? He loves setting himself up as the head of a movement. Thsoe statements he sends out would have to travel a long way to reach an office of Al jeezera without attracting attention. And they, and other messages, would have to be hand carried. Any electronic communication will be found by the NSA.

And how can the most wanted and known criminal in the world make the journy without being caught? Especially when you consider his medical problems. Do a google search. There is serious consideration that he is unable to walk anymore. He always sits in his filmed statements and the scenes of him walking in them seem to be years old. How can he move very far?

Pakistan is by far the most likely place.

 

[Jonathan Randall]

The Indonesia idea is only appealing if you believe that all muslims support terrorists and would not report him if he was spotted. If you think that there are muslims who do not automatically support terrorism, then you have to think about where Osama would stand out the most and be more likely reported. And an arab like him in a sea of Asian faces without the ablity to speak the locla language would be a great challenge.

The bad lands of Pakistan are not safe because everyone is Muslim. It is a safe place because;

1- there is virtually no central goverenment presence.
2- the people there are widly independent and resent the central government.
3- The people there have fiercely loyal ties to the Taliban through their shared tribe affiliation of Pashtum. And since Osama is buds with the Taliban, the loyality passes off to him as well.

None of these things are true in Indonesia. Unlike the bad lands of Pakistan, people in Indonesia can call the government and have a battalion on the ground in a few hours, if not less. There is no free areas where they can act openly. The terrorist attacks like the Bali bombing are urban operations and they have to hide in the populace. Experts are not even certain that there has been any face to face meetings in the last few years between anyone in Osama's circle and Indonesia. There are areas of Thailand and the Philipines where there are "no go" areas for the government and groups with known ties to Osama operating.

But the trouble is how likely would Osama be to move himself away from control like that? He loves setting himself up as the head of a movement. Thsoe statements he sends out would have to travel a long way to reach an office of Al jeezera without attracting attention. And they, and other messages, would have to be hand carried. Any electronic communication will be found by the NSA.

And how can the most wanted and known criminal in the world make the journy without being caught? Especially when you consider his medical problems. Do a google search. There is serious consideration that he is unable to walk anymore. He always sits in his filmed statements and the scenes of him walking in them seem to be years old. How can he move very far?

Pakistan is by far the most likely place.

You make good points regarding Indonesia.

I think it is also important to recognize that the important thing is not so much the quantity of folks looking for Bin Laden and working to dismantle his group as it is the quality of those doing so. In other words, a handful of Special Forces Operators and intelligence specialists are probably more likely to find him than a huge military force moving across the countryside with the obviousness of a herd of elephants.

 

[michaeledward]

The Indonesia idea is only appealing if you believe that all muslims support terrorists and would not report him if he was spotted. If you think that there are muslims who do not automatically support terrorism, then you have to think about where Osama would stand out the most and be more likely reported. And an arab like him in a sea of Asian faces without the ablity to speak the locla language would be a great challenge.

The bad lands of Pakistan are not safe because everyone is Muslim. It is a safe place because;

1- there is virtually no central goverenment presence.
2- the people there are widly independent and resent the central government.
3- The people there have fiercely loyal ties to the Taliban through their shared tribe affiliation of Pashtum. And since Osama is buds with the Taliban, the loyality passes off to him as well.

None of these things are true in Indonesia. Unlike the bad lands of Pakistan, people in Indonesia can call the government and have a battalion on the ground in a few hours, if not less. There is no free areas where they can act openly. The terrorist attacks like the Bali bombing are urban operations and they have to hide in the populace. Experts are not even certain that there has been any face to face meetings in the last few years between anyone in Osama's circle and Indonesia. There are areas of Thailand and the Philipines where there are "no go" areas for the government and groups with known ties to Osama operating.

But the trouble is how likely would Osama be to move himself away from control like that? He loves setting himself up as the head of a movement. Thsoe statements he sends out would have to travel a long way to reach an office of Al jeezera without attracting attention. And they, and other messages, would have to be hand carried. Any electronic communication will be found by the NSA.

And how can the most wanted and known criminal in the world make the journy without being caught? Especially when you consider his medical problems. Do a google search. There is serious consideration that he is unable to walk anymore. He always sits in his filmed statements and the scenes of him walking in them seem to be years old. How can he move very far?

Pakistan is by far the most likely place.

Don Roley,

I do not believe it takes 1 billion people to hide one person.

I think that argument is silly on its face.

 

[Don Roley]

Don Roley,

I do not believe it takes 1 billion people to hide one person.

I think that argument is silly on its face.

I do not understand the argument that he could be in Indonesia if that is not the point you are trying to make.

If all of his friends and trusted contacts are hiding out in Pakistan, why go to a place merely because it is the most populated Islamic nation as has been speculated? Do we know of even one close, trusted associate of Osama seen in Indonesia?

There are some places that do have Al- Queada groups operating in them. But again the question is how can he travel with his medical condition and escaping a very large search for him? It is too much risk to move to a place that gives less protection than Pakistan's bad lands. There is no other place in that part of the world that has areas that are not under the control of a government, and other places he would stand out too much and/or face the same problem of living in an area firmly under the government's control.