Coronavirus/Covid 19

[jobo]

Many more people do die from the flu every year, but many many many more people get the flu every year. But the death rate of the flu is very low, around 0.1%. Last I heard, Covid-19 is showing a death rat of 3.4%. That is what WHO has put it at, as of a day or two ago. That number is likely to change, as we really don’t know how many people are actually infected. The more that is learned about this disease, the more accurate the info will become and the more confidence we can have in the numbers. But so far, Covid-19 is showing a death rate of 34 times that of the flu.

so, the risk is 34 x mininscule, so thats slightly less than miniscule ?

 

[geezer]

so, the risk is 34 x mininscule, so thats slightly less than miniscule ?

Yeah, that seems about right ...based on the woefully incomplete data available so far. Really, for now it's a wait and see situation.

 

[JowGaWolf]

Many more people do die from the flu every year, but many many many more people get the flu every year. But the death rate of the flu is very low, around 0.1%. Last I heard, Covid-19 is showing a death rat of 3.4%. But so far, Covid-19 is showing a death rate of 34 times that of the flu.

I really don't like the flu comparisons about how many people are killed by the flu. Especially at the beginning of an an outbreak. Things are just getting started in the U.S. There's no guarantee that it won't spread from the US and back to China again. " It's still early in the game."

I also hate the flu comparison because this is 34 more times more deadlier than the flu. If the flu kills a lot of people then this new virus has the potential to kill 34 times more people. That's not a comfort level for me. I also learned this morning that a pet dog tested positive to a low level of corona virus infection. So now we have another twist. Human to Animal transmission. We know very little about the virus and now we got a new twist to it.

 

[Flying Crane]

I really don't like the flu comparisons about how many people are killed by the flu. Especially at the beginning of an an outbreak. Things are just getting started in the U.S. There's no guarantee that it won't spread from the US and back to China again. " It's still early in the game."

I also hate the flu comparison because this is 34 more times more deadlier than the flu. If the flu kills a lot of people then this new virus has the potential to kill 34 times more people. That's not a comfort level for me. I also learned this morning that a pet dog tested positive to a low level of corona virus infection. So now we have another twist. Human to Animal transmission. We know very little about the virus and now we got a new twist to it.

Interesting. I had just read on the WHO website that there is no evidence of transmission to or from pets.

It is a changing situation.

 

[Monkey Turned Wolf]

I really don't like the flu comparisons about how many people are killed by the flu. Especially at the beginning of an an outbreak. Things are just getting started in the U.S. There's no guarantee that it won't spread from the US and back to China again. " It's still early in the game."

I also hate the flu comparison because this is 34 more times more deadlier than the flu. If the flu kills a lot of people then this new virus has the potential to kill 34 times more people. That's not a comfort level for me. I also learned this morning that a pet dog tested positive to a low level of corona virus infection. So now we have another twist. Human to Animal transmission. We know very little about the virus and now we got a new twist to it.

The other part of it is we don't know it's infection rate/communicability compared to the flu. That will also impact how deadly it is overall compared to the flu.

 

[JowGaWolf]

Interesting report here. After seeing the living condition and the fact that it looks completely unregulated. I would say that anything would be possible in these conditions. I don't know anything about slaughtering animals but just from what I know of bacteria, animal viruses, there's a lot of things that I wouldn't do in terms of how these animals are kept for slaughtering. For starters I wouldn't stack them on top of each other in cases where the fecal matter of one animal can drop on top of another animal.

China coronavirus: Eating wild animals made illegal but ending the trade won't be easy - CNN

 

[jobo]

I really don't like the flu comparisons about how many people are killed by the flu. Especially at the beginning of an an outbreak. Things are just getting started in the U.S. There's no guarantee that it won't spread from the US and back to China again. " It's still early in the game."

I also hate the flu comparison because this is 34 more times more deadlier than the flu. If the flu kills a lot of people then this new virus has the potential to kill 34 times more people. That's not a comfort level for me. I also learned this morning that a pet dog tested positive to a low level of corona virus infection. So now we have another twist. Human to Animal transmission. We know very little about the virus and now we got a new twist to it.

its not 34 times dealier than the flu, it likemost virus is potentialy deadly to a very small group of people, those with compromised immune systems, thats larley the old and unwell, but could also included people who are fanatical about hygene, as they have compromised their own immune systems. in which case its just irony bordering on funny that they have put their health at risk by being obsesed about their health

so for most of us, its not even slightly deadly, i think the cccase is 5% of people become unwell, to the point they actually notice they have the virus.

as only a small group actually dvelop acute symtoms, you can increase the number of cases by several magnitudes, in which case the % dieing drops significantly

news media and WHO seem to be ramping up histeria for no good reason, we have been in constant battle with viruses since the begining of time and seem to have done just fine, larley because virus that kill a significant number of hosts are self limiting their exposure to new hosts so are not evolutionary sound and they modify themselves to be less deadly. thier purpose is not to kill, but to keep self replicating, that really hard to do if every one is dead

 

[Gerry Seymour]

well no its not, not if your talking about anti bacterial cleaner, which kills bacteria, viruses yeast and other assorted nasties, where as soap doesnt do that at all, unless it '' medicated soap'', which is much the same thing as bio wash, good old carbolic kills everything

it leaves a significant portion alive and kicking, it is however good at removing dirt

Actually, recent studies show that handwashing for 15+ seconds with soap and water (not necessarily antibactirial soap, nor necessarily hot water) is highly effective for sanitizing hands.

 

[ShortBridge]

We're up to 14 deaths in Washington State. Most in King County and the others just 1 county over.

 

[jobo]

Actually, recent studies show that handwashing for 15+ seconds with soap and water (not necessarily antibactirial soap, nor necessarily hot water) is highly effective for sanitizing hands.

effective, possibly, but not highly effective, not 99% of bacteria, which is what my bio wash is,,

washing with soap does not kill bacteria, or virus, it floats some , even most of them away, but leaves say 20% still there. if that matters depends which ones are left, if only issue with the vast majority ilof the bacteria on your skin is it gets a bit smelly

 

[Tez3]

We're up to 14 deaths in Washington State. Most in King County and the others just 1 county over.

We have two in the UK, both very elderly people with underlying health conditions which is as the experts said would happen.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

effective, possibly, but not highly effective, not 99% of bacteria, which is what my bio wash is,,

washing with soap does not kill bacteria, or virus, it floats some , even most of them away, but leaves say 20% still there. if that matters depends which ones are left, if only issue with the vast majority ilof the bacteria on your skin is it gets a bit smelly

Your assertion assumes the gel penetrates what’s on the hand (mucus, etc.) containing those germs. What I’ve read states it’s not good at that. It is only at its full effectiveness on clean skin. Hand washing removes what the virus hides in, and the virus with it.

 

[JowGaWolf]

news media and WHO seem to be ramping up histeria for no good reason, we have been in constant battle with viruses since the begining of time and seem to have done just fine,

Some of us have made it through but I wouldn't classify it as "seem to have done just fine."

"Seem to have done fine" to me = a cure or successful treatment. It's just a numbers game until that happens where the higher the population is, the more likely you'll have survivors from that population.

Small pox:
On average, 3 out of every 10 people who got it died. the disease accounted for nearly 400,000 deaths each year, including five kings. Of those surviving, one-third were blinded. The worldwide death toll was staggering and continued well into the twentieth century, where mortality has been estimated at 300 to 500 million.
Historical Highlights:

• 6th Century – Increased trade with China and Korea introduces smallpox into Japan.
• 7th Century – Arab expansion spreads smallpox into northern Africa, Spain, and Portugal.
• 11th Century – Crusades further spread smallpox in Europe.
• 15th Century – Portuguese occupation introduces smallpox into part of western Africa.
• 16th Century – European colonization and the African slave trade import smallpox into the Caribbean and Central and South America.
• 17th Century – European colonization imports smallpox into North America.
• 18th Century – Exploration by Great Britain introduces smallpox into Australia.

The Black Plague
the Black Death would kill more than 20 million people in Europe – almost one-third of the continent’s population.

The Spanish flu
The great flu pandemic of 1918 and 1919 is estimated to have killed between 30 million and 50 million people worldwide.

Measles:
n 2012, approximately 122,000 people worldwide died from the measles

Typhoid fever kills around 216,000 people a year. Tuberculosis, an infectious bacterial disease, killed an estimated 1.3 million in 2012.

These are just some of the numbers of some of the illnesses that we people had to deal with in the past or in the present.

larley because virus that kill a significant number of hosts are self limiting their exposure to new hosts so are not evolutionary sound and they modify themselves to be less deadly.

I don't think viruses care if they kill alot or kill a few. I don't think they operate on a self-awareness like that. When you look at the size of a virus, then an adult body is more than enough real estate for reproduction and thriving. The fact that viruses spread as fast as they shows the efficiency of it's ability to thrive. Even if the host dies, there is still risk of spreading. Just because the host is dead doesn't mean the virus is dead. Many viruses don't kill there host right away. They always stay long enough for another host to arrive. Some have the ability to jump from Species to Species. So to me it seems like viruses are evolutionary sound.

A virus that can be transmitted from animal human may not kill or even affect the animal but may have devastating effects on human hosts. I think people put a human logic on other life forms. If killing the host is bad, then killing the predator that kills your host is good. The more predators the virus can kill then, the more likely the host can survive. While I personally don't believe virus can plan something like that, if I were to take your statement "because virus that kill a significant number of host are self limiting their exposure to new hosts so are not evolutionary sound." Then I would have to entertain the possibility that a virus that kills, only does so with the goal that it's killing the predator of it's original host. (which may be an animal). The more predators that die, the more likely their original host will survive.

 

[JowGaWolf]

We're up to 14 deaths in Washington State. Most in King County and the others just 1 county over.

I'm keeping my eyes on Washington State for any significant change of how the virus affects people. It looks like 21% of people in Washington is expected to be 65 years or older. Then you have those who have other health issues and that risk can rise.

We may live longer but often times, it's not without other health issues.
More than half a million adults and 120,000 youth in Washington currently have asthma. Definitely some potential for things to get really nasty.

 

[ShortBridge]

Word.

 

[Tez3]

Looking at the rate of suicide, the second highest cause of death in the US and rising fast in the UK I think the Coronavirus isn't actually the thing we should worry about the most. A vaccine will be found, probably in the next four weeks, and it will pass. Suicide by young people especially males and by veterans climbed to epidemic levels quite a while ago.

Hunger kills more people than disease today but in the first world countries it's ignored. Over 9500 have died from that just today. The World Counts

 

[Tez3]

Message from a Canadian doctor.

I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.
Abdu Sharkawy

#washurhands #geturflushot #respect #patiencenotpanic

 

[Gerry Seymour]

I'm keeping my eyes on Washington State for any significant change of how the virus affects people. It looks like 21% of people in Washington is expected to be 65 years or older. Then you have those who have other health issues and that risk can rise.

We may live longer but often times, it's not without other health issues.
More than half a million adults and 120,000 youth in Washington currently have asthma. Definitely some potential for things to get really nasty.

A report last night included news from the main testing site near Seattle. Approximately 5% of those with similar symptoms who were tested, tested positive for covid-19. This suggests a large number of unreported cases.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

Looking at the rate of suicide, the second highest cause of death in the US and rising fast in the UK I think the Coronavirus isn't actually the thing we should worry about the most. A vaccine will be found, probably in the next four weeks, and it will pass. Suicide by young people especially males and by veterans climbed to epidemic levels quite a while ago.

Hunger kills more people than disease today but in the first world countries it's ignored. Over 9500 have died from that just today. The World Counts

That doesn’t suggest we should stop paying attention to Coronavirus diseases. Rather, try at we should pay more attention to those. For the suicide epidemic, unfortunately, we don’t seem to have a model for altering that number greatly.

 

[dvcochran]

Looking at the rate of suicide, the second highest cause of death in the US and rising fast in the UK I think the Coronavirus isn't actually the thing we should worry about the most. A vaccine will be found, probably in the next four weeks, and it will pass. Suicide by young people especially males and by veterans climbed to epidemic levels quite a while ago.

Hunger kills more people than disease today but in the first world countries it's ignored. Over 9500 have died from that just today. The World Counts

Agree. If you research the statistic on Flu related deaths by year they have mostly gone down in worldwide with the exceptions of spikes such as the swine flu.
Deaths influenza and pneumonia U.S. 1950-2017 | Statista

It is quite telling how the CDC points out that flu deaths track proportional to population growth, species density, and age/health of a region.
Burden of Influenza

The line chart in this Time article is quite telling.
2019-2020 Flu Season on Track to Be Especially Severe, New CDC Data Suggests

I am still optimistic that this strain will be a blip as best. It certainly is my hope.