What would happen to Saudi Arabia should America become less dependant on Oil?

[Shotgun Buddha]

Just a query for any with a better global view than I. America is currently rather dependant on foreign oil, and attempts to switch to other power sources has met with some resistance. Nuclear, I'm looking in your direction.
Anyhoo, should America successfully wean itself away from a dependence on Oil from the Middle East, either through finding other areas to get it from, or focusing on technolgy that will require less of it, how do figure that would impact on Saudia Arabia and the region around it?

 

[CoryKS]

Just a query for any with a better global view than I. America is currently rather dependant on foreign oil, and attempts to switch to other power sources has met with some resistance. Nuclear, I'm looking in your direction.
Anyhoo, should America successfully wean itself away from a dependence on Oil from the Middle East, either through finding other areas to get it from, or focusing on technolgy that will require less of it, how do figure that would impact on Saudia Arabia and the region around it?

Probably wouldn't affect them that much, given that we get most of our oil from Canada and Venezuela. But if we share our new technology with other large oil-consumers like China, that would be a different matter.

 

[Shotgun Buddha]

So any large scale global move away from oil dependency would probably de-stabilize the region quite a bit? Just wondering given their economy seems to revolve around it.

 

[CoryKS]

So any large scale global move away from oil dependency would probably de-stabilize the region quite a bit? Just wondering given their economy seems to revolve around it.

Oil is the only real import from that area. Everyone says that removing oil-dependency would destabilize the region. For that matter, everyone says that doing _________ will destabilize the region. This sentiment presupposes that the region is, or ever has been, "stable". I'm not sure that these people are clear on what the word actually means.

 

[Shotgun Buddha]

Heh thats very true. But it would probably cause severe problems for the current regime there anyway? Im aware this is bit of a simplistic query to be making Im just curious about opinions on it. Given that Im in Ireland, debates here about America and the Middle East can get a little...how shall I phrase this, idiotic and distorted though ridiculously childish propoganda?

 

[CoryKS]

Heh thats very true. But it would probably cause severe problems for the current regime there anyway? Im aware this is bit of a simplistic query to be making Im just curious about opinions on it. Given that Im in Ireland, debates here about America and the Middle East can get a little...how shall I phrase this, idiotic and distorted though ridiculously childish propoganda?

Yeah, it would definitely cause problems for the regime. Oil is the basis for their economy, and while very little of the profits actually trickles down from the rulers to the people, the loss of that would be catastrophic for them. We would see a bloody power struggle, since one of the things that the Saudis use the money for is to keep the religious groups at bay. We could expect to feel some of this too because the Saudis are skilled at casting blame for all the woes in their kingdom on other countries. America will be cast as the villain - naturally - for destroying their country. Israel will be blamed because they probably used their magic Jooo powers to convince us to study the new technology. Europe will bear the brunt of it because they're close at hand and besides they're still butthurt about losing Andalusia and etc...

It's not the region that is unstable, it's the people that live there.

 

[Shotgun Buddha]

What form do you think the effect on Europe would take? Nearest European country is Turkey I think. There's talk that if they clean up their act sufficiently, that they could be a member of the EU in a few years. So given the defence pacts involved that could get messy.

 

[CoryKS]

What form do you think the effect on Europe would take? Nearest European country is Turkey I think. There's talk that if they clean up their act sufficiently, that they could be a member of the EU in a few years. So given the defence pacts involved that could get messy.

I think in Europe you would see terrorist attacks intended to force political outcomes that favor SA and other Islamic countries. The Madrid train bombings in 2004 were a pitch-perfect exercise in "convincing" a nation that it would be in their best interest to vote against the incumbent, and led directly to the removal of Spanish troops from Iraq.

 

[Archangel M]

I have heard a theory that our "dependence" on foreign oil is part of an economic war tactic against China. The recent spike in oil price is believed to be part of a plan to cripple Chinas economic machine like low oil prices in the 80's were part of the strategy to topple the USSR.

Dunno if that holds water, but it is an interesting thought.

 

[rhn_kenpo]

Oil is a fungible commodity so it does not matter whether the US buys direct from Saudi or from Venezuela, Nigeria or whoever might come along. We pay, and all sellers get, the global market clearing price.

I've done business in Saudi for 20 years, as well as the neighboring Emirates. These countries, Saudi in particular, are endowed with incredible wealth and have absolutely enormous cash flows. Yet they are absolute cesspools of under-development and political oppression. Their economies are feeble and there is very little economic opportunity unless you happen to be a Saudi royal.....and then you get paid well for literally doing nothing. For the common folk, the place simply stinks. In fact, look around. Most ALL major energy exporters are economic, social and political basket cases, despite their oil wealth. Anyone here want to relocate to Nigeria, Venezuela, Angola, Algeria, Russia, etc......

Much theory and my experience suggests that the causality flows the other direction. They are basket cases because they have relied on the crutch of oil instead of modernizing and improving their societies. With oil, the wolves at the top fight over who gets the biggest slice of pie, while the rest go without.

US 'oil dependency' is already in structural decline. That is what high prices do in a market based system, they crush demand. My guess is that this will be long-term very positive to Saudi and other basket case energy producers. Economic pressures will force autocratic govts. to make their economies more flexible and productive. That requires some degree of political freedom too. It won't be easy, but I'll take even odds that in 20 years living standards for the average Saudi are far far better than they are today.

R

 

[zDom]

It's been suggested that we might assist that region in manufacturing glass which, presumably, they could export.

Not sure how much of a market there is for desert-sized sheets of glass, though.

 

[Omar B]

It's oil, there will always be a market for it. The market may shift to another part of the world or another application, but you gotta remember it is fuel and there's always a need.

 

[CanuckMA]

What we mostly seem t ignore is that oil is so much more than fuel. Shift all energy needs, including vehicles away from oil and the amount required as a raw material for nearly every synthetic we have is still staggering.