UFC 87 - picks

[Sensei Tom O'Brien]

UFC 87: AUGUST 9, 2008 IN MINNEAPOLIS
venue: Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota

Main Card Bouts: My picks -
-Georges St. Pierre vs. Jon Fitch
-Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta
-Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring
-Demian Maia vs. Jason MacDonald
-Manny Gamburyan vs. Rob Emerson

Preliminary Bouts:
-Cheick Kongo vs. Dan Evensen
-Andre Gusmao vs. Tomasz Drwal
-Steve Bruno vs. Chris Wilson
-Ben Saunders vs. Jared Rollins

GSP – all the way. Kenny always finds a way to win but it will not be easy with Roger. Brock should be more savvy now & with his strength he can beat Heath this time. I’ve always like Jason and if Manny’s shoulder holds up he should win. Why is Kongo in the prelims? The other guys I don’t know. More new blood coming up every day – can’t keep up.

Thanks,
Tom

 

[Steve]

-Georges St. Pierre vs. Jon Fitch
GSP, hands down. Fitch is a tough guy, but GSP is the man until proven otherwise.

-Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta
Same with Florian. Huerta's fight with Guida was epic and proved he's top tier, but Kenny Florian is a maniac in the gym, is smart, and has really amped up his stand up skills to match his world class grappling. Kenny's technical ability in both BJJ and Muay Thai are going to be the difference as he wins with what I believe will be relative ease.

-Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring
Herring hasn't been the same since coming to the (largely) steroid free UFC. Brock Lesnar, on the other hand, has been training for months to improve his striking and submission skills. His physical ability is clear. He's agile and strong as a bull. It won't take long before he develops the skills he needs to become one of the guys to beat in the HW division.

-Demian Maia vs. Jason MacDonald
This is my upset of the night. Demian Maia is unfamiliar to many MMA fans, but he's a veritable star in BJJ/Grappling, with wins over Jacare, Gabriel Gonzaga (if you can believe that size difference). The only grappler with more skills than Maia in the UFC right now is, maybe, BJ Penn. I think he'll pull out a win over The Athlete, although it's going to be a good fight.

-Manny Gamburyan vs. Rob Emerson
I have to take Manny primarily for his willingness to engage his opponent and his tenacity. Rob Emerson trains down at No Limits and I'd like to root for anyone who trains BJJ with Juliano Prado (my instructor's instructor), but I just don't think that Rob is going to pull it out.

Preliminary Bouts:
-Cheick Kongo vs. Dan Evensen
This is a fight between two primarily stand up fighters. Unfortunately, I think Kongo is the better striker. I don't believe either have any grappling skill to speak of, but I might be wrong.

-Andre Gusmao vs. Tomasz Drwal
Andre Gusmao is from the IFL. He's a great grappler, but is interesting because in addition to his black belt in BJJ, he's also one of the few Capoeristas around in MMA. He's been tremendously successful in the IFL and definitely belongs in the UFC. His capoeria gives him some unorthodox striking and his BJJ, under Renzo Gracie is very, very good. Never heard of the other guy, although looking him up it looks like his only fight against someone I've heard of is his last one, a loss against Thiago Silva.

-Steve Bruno vs. Chris Wilson
I don't know a lot about either fighter, but I've seen Chris Wilson fight in the IFL out of Team Quest.

-Ben Saunders vs. Jared Rollins
A couple of TUF alums going at it. I'm going to take Ben Saunders. He's a really tall guy whose main impression on me was that he looked like an in shape Ross from the TV show Friends. Jared Rollins was also on the show. He never impressed me in his fights, although he definitely looks mean. I'll go for the goofy looking guy who hasn't lost a fight I've watched, over the scary looking, Mr. T lookalike who hasn't won one a fight I've watched.

 

[MattJ]

Tom, I mirror most of your picks, but I have to go with Steve's choice on the MacDonald fight. Jason has not really impressed me yet.

 

[Catalyst]

For the main card I agree with stevebjj's picks.

However, I think that Florian vs. Huerta will be the fight of the night. Huerta just has that mental toughness and will be a real tough opponent for KenFlo. I still think KenFlo wins the fight, but it won't be easy.
I'm actually looking forward to seeing this match-up.

 

[Sensei Tom O'Brien]

Steve,

Nice breakdown of the fights & fighters. Gives us something to think about going in.

Tom

 

[terryl965]

Stevebjj I agree with everyone except Lesner, I still believe he is not for this sport. The WWE is for him.

 

[Nolerama]

Stevebjj I agree with everyone except Lesner, I still believe he is not for this sport. The WWE is for him.

Totally agree. Lesnar should go back to professional wrestling.

 

[tshadowchaser]

I have to agree with TOM's picks in the op

Lesner I like and think with more training he can be a force that many will not want to face

 

[terryl965]

I have to agree with TOM's picks in the op

Lesner I like and think with more training he can be a force that many will not want to face

I am sorry I do not believe this guy at his age has the time to make all the changes he needs to, to be really competitive in the octogon. I believe he would like to be but he has alot of bad habits that I believe would take him a good five years to get that way and then he will be turning 38 and that is getting old in the octogon to really be a force. I know a few have made it longer but not many.

 

[Marginal]

-Georges St. Pierre vs. Jon Fitch

I'll go with GSP. Unless he's just cursed on title defenses...

-Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta

I'll go with Florian.

-Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring

Herring. He's had more than a few entertaining fights in Pride. His UFC performance to date hasn't really demonstrated his potential. Brock looked like trash last time. I doubt a few more months would result in a drastic improvement. (Of course, this is assuming Herring doesn't go out and do something stupid.)

-Demian Maia vs. Jason MacDonald

Eh. He's looked solid so far.

-Manny Gamburyan vs. Rob Emerson

Manny annoys me, but he's hard to stop.

-Ben Saunders vs. Jared Rollins

Want Ben to do well just 'cause he was KO'ed by a cold in the TUF finals. He'd looked good up to that point.

 

[funnytiger]

I made a blog entry on MMARated.com that outlines my picks and why I chose them here, but here is the skinny:

• Georges St. Pierre vs. Jon Fitch (GSP)
  
• Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta (Huerta)
  
• Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring (Herring)
  
• Manny Gamburyan vs. Rob Emerson (Gamburyan)
  
• Demian Maia vs. Jason MacDonald (no pick)

 

[Brian R. VanCise]

• Georges St. Pierre vs. Jon Fitch
  
• Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta
  
• Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring (size wins out)
  
• Manny Gamburyan vs. Rob Emerson
  
• Demian Maia vs. Jason MacDonald
  

Cheick Kongo vs. Dan Evensen
Andre Gusmao vs. Tomasz Drwal (toss up)
Steve Bruno vs. Chris Wilson (toss up)
Ben Saunders vs. Jared Rollins (toss up)

look to be a very good card with some interesting match up. GSP and Fitch should be interesting. I am interested to see Lesnar fight again. Heath Herring is a brawling with little technique so my money is on the sheer size of Lesnar in this one. The Floria and Huerta fight should be really good!

 

[Brian R. VanCise]

Oh and I cannot pick or root for someone with the nick name KenFlo!

 

[Steve]

So, what did everyone think? The one surprise I saw was Rob Emerson with the 12 second KO.

My only other real observation was Lesnar's complete lack of class. While I wasn't surprised by the result, I wasn't quite prepared for what a classless jerk Lesnar is. Wow. In my opinion, that sort of behavior just gives the anti-mma crowd more ammunition and overshadows the professionalism of many of the other athletes.

 

[Marginal]

I'm glad I'm not into betting.

 

[Tomu]

I totally agree with Stevebjj. I was thinking to myself that, wow, Lesnar might be alright. He definitely seemed to be working on his skills. Then at the end of the fight he proved himself to be a total jacka$$. I would like to see him fight Fedor so he can get owned, but obviously not going to happen.

 

[funnytiger]

For a fight card that I was so amped about, I was actually a little disappointed. It wasn't as "action packed" as they were touting it was going to be, but then again, it never really is... lol

I was actually really surprised by Lesnar's absolute dominance of Herring. I knew Lesnar was going to win, but I didn't even imagine it was going to be like watching a high schooler beating up an elementary school student.

I'm actually writing a blog post right now about some of the "talking points" from UFC 87. I'll post a link when I'm done.

 

[allenjp]

So, what did everyone think? The one surprise I saw was Rob Emerson with the 12 second KO.

My only other real observation was Lesnar's complete lack of class. While I wasn't surprised by the result, I wasn't quite prepared for what a classless jerk Lesnar is. Wow. In my opinion, that sort of behavior just gives the anti-mma crowd more ammunition and overshadows the professionalism of many of the other athletes.

Totally agree about Lesnar's attitude, I do not like him at all, especially after the way he acted after the fight. He needs to take lessons from GSP. He is a much better fighter than Lesnar, and he was very gracious to Fitch.

Oh, and BTW, did anyone else notice how many submission opportunities he passed up so he could hold Herring in a basic high school wrestling position and pound him? It won't take long for him to be exposed by someone with some real submission skills. Maybe Big Nog is the one he is most likely to face?

But holy crap, what a punch he deivered to Herring. I was surprised his face didn't literally cave in. He is also pretty fast for a guy his size. Can we say steroids???

 

[funnytiger]

Oh, and BTW, did anyone else notice how many submission opportunities he passed up so he could hold Herring in a basic high school wrestling position and pound him? It won't take long for him to be exposed by someone with some real submission skills. Maybe Big Nog is the one he is most likely to face?

But holy crap, what a punch he deivered to Herring. I was surprised his face didn't literally cave in. He is also pretty fast for a guy his size. Can we say steroids???

Lost of articles and blog posts about the Lesnar/Herring fight talked about the missed submission attempts by Lesnar and there were several credible (in my opinion) thoughts on why he never attempted one on the ground. (Remember he did try to do a standing guillotine in the first round but gave up on it when he couldn't get it really sunk in.)

One school of thought was that Lesnar was gun shy and just reverted to what he knew best, which is wrestling. After his first loss to Mir where he was clearly winning the match until he did something out of his comfort zone and was caught and submitted, it is quite possible he just didn't want to risk doing a submission in case Herring reversed it and caught him instead.

Another likely reason is that Lesnar is HUGE and its possible that his bulk makes it difficult to sink his hooks in.

Lesnar is a huge dude (who I don't think does steroids, btw) and its possible that he is going to actually revitalize the UFC's pretty lame Heavyweight division.

Excited!

 

[tshadowchaser]

I do not think he feels comfortable yet with submissions. Given more time to learn that aspect and some more training in jujutsu I think he will be a dominate force in the UFC. We need to remember the Lesnar comes to the UFC from a background in the WWF also and he will be one that plays to the crowd and tries to get the crowd going. It is called showmanship.