I've been thinking about KidsWarrior's original question... am not really satisfied with anything I've had to say about it so far. It seems to me that it's really a different question than what I was considering earlier in the thread, and it occurred to me that there's a very important difference between the very general notion `change' and the more specific concept of `evolution'... when I say `you' here, remember I mean `anyone' (saves a lot of typing

)
The notion of `evolution' is, ultimately, always based on the biological model that it came from. And in biology, evolution is driven by
necessity. Crudely put, you have what it takes and you live, you don't have what it takes and you die. Fashion, or styles in art and literature and music, aren't evolutionary in this sense. Just one of a huge number of examples: Fritz Kreisler, a violin supervirtuoso in the early 20th century, composed a number of pieces in various 18th century styles that were acclaimed as great music: styles had changed, but 20th century genius expressing itself in 18th century idiom is completely convincing, apparently. The essence of evolution is different in a very important way: it implies that the change involved isn't a matter of taste, or whim (as vs: skirt heights go up, go down; ties get thicker, thinner, thicker, ad nauseum—that sort of thing). Evolution is the response of some living system to necessity—pitiless unforgiving reality. So in a sense, as soon as you bring in evolution, the answer has to be, `of course, evolution, because whatever is necessary will, by definition, have to occur.'
So then the question is, what would cause
necessary change in MA systems that themselves arose in response to the necessities of their own time?
One possibility is that the kind of violent personal conflict that modern MAists have to face is fundamentally different from those of, say, late 19th c. Okinawa. The evidence here is bleak for anyone who wants to claim that Sluggo the thug and his knuckle-dragging buddies know anything more than their Asian counterparts 150 years ago in Okinawa, Japan, Seoul or Shanghai did. I've ranted about this stuff in different threads, but the fact is: what Patrick McCarthy calls the `habitual acts of violence'—the moves that initiate a violent conflict—appear to be unchanged since Matusumura shaped the basis of modern karate and its offspring. Virtually every tech recoverable by intelligent bunkai from karate/TSD/TKD forms (think late 19th c., early 20th c.) matches up with the most commont attacking moves observed by contemporary violence experts (think late 20th, early 21st c.). I can document these statements if anyone is interested. If this story is on the right track, the 19th c. karateka saw pretty much everything that there was to see in the way of assault initiation. Anything you're going to be hit with in a 21st c. bar, Anko Itosu already knew about in the 1890s. Work out the bunkai to the kata and you've got the key to the kingdom in your hands, right there.
So where does the notion of evolution come from so far as the MAs are concerned? One part of the answer is I think that while there are no new attacking strategies that you have to worry about—anything you're going to be facing: would-be sucker punches, head-butts, upper-body grabs combined with punches to the head, groin strike, you name it—there are new ways to respond based on the difference between 19th c. Asian norms of courtesy and `face' that are very different in N. America and elsewhere in the West. In particular:
(i) you can feign deference, while keeping your arms in a position which blocks almost any strike thrown by the attacker while positioning yourself to move to all-out attack as soon as the opportunity presents itself(the Fence tactic; see Bill Burgar's work on moderning the form of kata to incorporate this tactic in a way completely harmonious with classical karate strategy);
(ii) unlike our legally unarmed Okinawan MA ancestor, you can carry throwing weapons such as stars which will make a
hell of an impression on a would-be attacker who doesn't know what you're capable of, as a preliminary to your take-no-prisoners empty-hand techs (knifehand to throat, claw-hand to eyes, elbow-strikes all over the head and face);
(iii) you can absorb the various techs of the classical era—this takes a lot of work, but masters like Iain Abernethy, Patrick McCarthy, Bill Burgar, Kris Kane, Lawrence Wilder or our own Robert Rivers, Jay Penfil (and many others on MT) have provided us with terrific analyses and video resources for this aspect of our MA education—and you can then try to visualize the utilization of these techs in specialized scenarios: an elevator, for example, or a subway (all those hanging straps to grab suddenly, pull yourself up with and deliver a fracturing kick to an assailant's jaw... etc.) In other words, adapt the techs to contemporary
physical environments...
To do this well, you really have to understand the intentions and limits of the classical strategy/tactics mixes in the traditional form of the MA you study. A lot of stuff that's relevant and valuable is still in there, waiting to be discovered. But if you don't understand what that front stance really
is (not a stance you assume, but rather, code for driving your bodyweight into a lock on the attacker's joint), and so on, you won't be able to adapt your practice in a logical way to whatever is genuinly new in CQ combat in the early 21st c....
I'm just trying to think this whole question through, y'understand, eh?