MartialTalk and the COVID-19 Pandemic

[jobo]

Confused About Masks? Here’s What Scientists Know

"The accumulating research may be imperfect, and it’s still evolving, but the takeaway is simple. Right now, masks are necessary to slow the pandemic."

"Among public health experts, there is near-unanimous endorsement of universal mask mandates to shield people from the virus and slow the pandemic.

“The more people who wear a mask, the more the community is protected and therefore the more you individually benefit,” said Dr. John Brooks, chief medical officer of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Covid-19 response program. “It’s like a herd effect.”"

when you say NEAR unanimous does that mean its not unanimous ?

the thing is being right isnt dependent on how many agree or disagree with you, your either correct or your not, what everyone else thinks is academic

even taken at face value that claims they SLOW the pandemic, not that they will save a single life, in the medium term

 

[jobo]

I found this site this morning. I am not familiar with it but it seems to do a good job of breaking things down across the globe.
U.S. Death Rate 1950-2020

Looking at the first graph it is interesting how low and flat it is years 2008-2013. Then it has a steady trajectory year to year going forward.

you really need to put that up against a life expectancy graph to make sence of it

life expectancy increased considerably through out the 20th century, better puclic health, work place safety, vaccinations, much better medical science

the problem is there will come a time when all the people they saved from appearing in the infant mortality rate in the 1950s and 60s all get old and die, so about now on really and so going forwards as the infant mortality rate contained to plunge and others, the death rate circa 70 years klater will keep increasing

that coupled with the changes in life style and diet, which is killing a lot of people in there 50 and 60s and its going to increase

 

[Flying Crane]

Confused About Masks? Here’s What Scientists Know

"The accumulating research may be imperfect, and it’s still evolving, but the takeaway is simple. Right now, masks are necessary to slow the pandemic."

"Among public health experts, there is near-unanimous endorsement of universal mask mandates to shield people from the virus and slow the pandemic.

“The more people who wear a mask, the more the community is protected and therefore the more you individually benefit,” said Dr. John Brooks, chief medical officer of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Covid-19 response program. “It’s like a herd effect.”"

The sad thing is that people still need to be told this. Even without extensive studies and data, this is just plain intuitive, when you have even a very basic understanding of how pathogens are spread.

Maybe for the sake of the world at large, the US needs to have a huge die-off and Covid is the instrument to get it done. Agent Smith wasn’t wrong when he said that humans are a virus. Perhaps the US is the Covid of viruses. We are a nation of idiots.

 

[jobo]

The sad thing is that people still need to be told this. Even without extensive studies and data, this is just plain intuitive, when you have even a very basic understanding of how pathogens are spread.

Maybe for the sake of the world at large, the US needs to have a huge die-off and Covid is the instrument to get it done. Agent Smith wasn’t wrong when he said that humans are a virus. Perhaps the US is the Covid of viruses. We are a nation of idiots.

so are you admitting there no data ? just your intuition ! ok at least thats clear if a little unsatisfactory

everyone wear a mask flying crane said so

nb viruses are obligate pathogens

 

[JowGaWolf]

I found this site this morning. I am not familiar with it but it seems to do a good job of breaking things down across the globe.
U.S. Death Rate 1950-2020

Looking at the first graph it is interesting how low and flat it is years 2008-2013. Then it has a steady trajectory year to year going forward.

That data come from the UN. The charts that are on those pages are projections and not actual counts. It's what they thought would happen Pre-Covid. So I went to the The UN website that it was linked to.

This graph is similar as it tries to predict the death rate. My guess the steep increase factors covid in. This is the first time I've seen a predictive chart. It would be interested in seeing what the median is being affected by. I would expect that some time before 2030 the numbers would go down. Source: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/840

 

[JowGaWolf]

the US needs to have a huge die-off and Covid is the instrument to get it done.

I've thought about this too on many levels. Not just in terms of the U.S. but also in terms of ethnicity. I've been thinking of things in very different mindsets like.
1. How would a Racist think to be able to benefit from Covid-19
2. How would a Wealthy Person think to be able to benefit from Covid-19
3. How would a enemy nation think to be able to benefit from Covid-19
4. How would a political party think to be able to benefit from Covid-19
5. How would opportunists think to be able to benefit from Covid-19

I took a look at indirect (ways they benefit without doing anything) and direct (ways they actively take advantage of) ways of the benefits to these 5 areas. I'm actually in the 5 group and currently only able to have indirect benefits provided that I don't die from Covid-19. There's nothing I've been able to really benefit from as of yet. But I'm actively looking at real estate, since so many businesses have or are on the brink of closing down. I just haven't been able to take the opportunity yet.

But going through those 5 areas, I came up with some really dark things. I didn't leave anything out of the realm of possibility no matter how low that possibility may actually be. It wasn't all dark, but there were some dark stuff in all areas. A lot of the dark stuff revolved around having a huge die-off. As an enemy country. The goal would be to have the virus so wide spread within my enemy's country that starts to infect and kill leadership on all levels. We can replace people but we can't replace experience and relationships. This is the best way to weaken an enemy country without directly doing anything.

In ancient times dead cows and bodies were tossed over enemy walls in an effort to spread disease, water supplies were tainted and the practice becomes the same here, with the exception that you don't have to toss bodies and cows, and you don't have to actually do anything to take advantage of a natural epidemic but hope that your enemy is stupid enough to do all the wrong things and make bad decisions on trying to handle the pandemic. The more the disease spreads in a country due to bad decisions the better. The bonus would be to have chaos within the country where sides fight against each other. And the best thing about #3 is that you wouldn't have to lift a finger to make any of this happen. So far leadership hasn't died yet from Covid-19 which is good thing. But run through a couple of those scenarios from those 5 groups and you'll eventually hit the darkness.

 

[dvcochran]

That data come from the UN. The charts that are on those pages are projections and not actual counts. It's what they thought would happen Pre-Covid. So I went to the The UN website that it was linked to.

This graph is similar as it tries to predict the death rate. My guess the steep increase factors covid in. This is the first time I've seen a predictive chart. It would be interested in seeing what the median is being affected by. I would expect that some time before 2030 the numbers would go down. Source: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/840
View attachment 23328

I do not see much difference in the two charts with the exception of the bizarre 60 sample scatter going forward in time. The first chart is accurate and what is neat is that it is interactive giving accurate counts year to year. What seems to be overlooked is how steady and similar the counts have been year to year since the flatline around 2008-2013.
Major note; this includes the count for this year regardless of which chart you use.

 

[drop bear]

potential lives,? what does that mean,

how many were actually saved,

that was the question?

Yeah think 819 deaths in Victoria vs 6 deaths in qld.

 

[elder999]

Trends in County-Level COVID-19 Incidence in Counties With ...

 

[elder999]

Effectiveness of Government Policies in Response to the COVID-19 Outbreak by Theologos Dergiades, Costas Milas, Elias Mossialos, Theodore Panagiotidis :: SSRN

 

[JowGaWolf]

Effectiveness of Government Policies in Response to the COVID-19 Outbreak by Theologos Dergiades, Costas Milas, Elias Mossialos, Theodore Panagiotidis :: SSRN

Thanks for both of the links and the time you spent to look for them

 

[elder999]

Thanks for both of the links and the time you spent to look for them

When someone says "there's no data," well......there's always "data."

What does it mean? That's up to the experts in the field.

 

[_Simon_]

but thatrs my point, there isnt any long term gain, the virus is now endemic, it will return, you live in a very lowly populated country, so things may happen slower

the current estimate in the uk is one in 80 have the virus, thats most of a million people, thats 10, thousands deaths give or take, thats after a 4 month lock down and three weeks into another one, with out the lock down they may have died sooner, but they will soon be dead, so it didnt work in saving their lives

mean while we borrowed 22 billion just in October to try and pay for it all, the chancellor has warned this level of borrowing cant be sustained and it cant, the first victims offfff a government freeze on spending are the old and the weak and the vulnerable, thats the very people who are dieing of covid, the lock down isnt helping them and the government cuts will get them anyway

So you can't see how it's a long term gain, of getting numbers to a sustainable level, jumping on those cases that pop up and quarantining them, keeping things at a baseline manageable level until a vaccine comes?

Sounds like you've made up your mind anyway.

 

[jobo]

So you can't see how it's a long term gain, of getting numbers to a sustainable level, jumping on those cases that pop up and quarantining them, keeping things at a baseline manageable level until a vaccine comes?

Sounds like you've made up your mind anyway.

what do you mean by sustainable level,,, ,

its the economics of lock down that isnt sustainable,

 

[drop bear]

So you can't see how it's a long term gain, of getting numbers to a sustainable level, jumping on those cases that pop up and quarantining them, keeping things at a baseline manageable level until a vaccine comes?

Sounds like you've made up your mind anyway.

Yeah. We can literally look at state by state comparison. The deaths are not slower they are less.

 

[drop bear]

what do you mean by sustainable level,,, ,

its the economics of lock down that isnt sustainable,

It is if you can get rid of covid transmission. Because then you can open the economy back up.

No covid cases means less deaths and an ability to resume normal economic progress.

16 cases in Queensland. Which is apparently a manageable number.

 

[jobo]

It is if you can get rid of covid transmission. Because then you can open the economy back up.

No covid cases means less deaths and an ability to resume normal economic progress.

16 cases in Queensland. Which is apparently a manageable number.

View attachment 23329

well a milkion cases in the uk, which is also apparently a managable number, which is why i queeried what " sustainable "means, it quite clearly different in different places

dont get to cocky as soon as they remove the lock down it will shoot up again, Australia shut its botder very very quickly, it that that keeping the numbers down, we cant go back in time and change that

 

[elder999]

Lockdowns and COVID-19 Deaths in Scandinavia by Martin J. Conyon, Lerong He, Steen Thomsen :: SSRN

"We estimate the impact of non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 deaths in Scandinavia. We exploit policy variation between Denmark and Norway on the one hand and Sweden on the other. The former deployed relatively more stringent lockdowns, the latter did not. Our difference-in-differences models show that stricter lockdown policies are associated with fewer COVID-19 deaths."

 

[jobo]

Lockdowns and COVID-19 Deaths in Scandinavia by Martin J. Conyon, Lerong He, Steen Thomsen :: SSRN

"We estimate the impact of non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 deaths in Scandinavia. We exploit policy variation between Denmark and Norway on the one hand and Sweden on the other. The former deployed relatively more stringent lockdowns, the latter did not. Our difference-in-differences models show that stricter lockdown policies are associated with fewer COVID-19 deaths."

associated?????? thats not very certain is it? do they mean there is a corrolation, which as we all kbow doesnt equal causation

 

[jobo]

So you can't see how it's a long term gain, of getting numbers to a sustainable level, jumping on those cases that pop up and quarantining them, keeping things at a baseline manageable level until a vaccine comes?

Sounds like you've made up your mind anyway.

the other problem is two out of the three vacines are live vacines, now live vactines are ok as lobg as you dont have a compremised immune syatem, in which case its more or less guaranteeing you get the disease, there were thousands and thoysabds of people vacibated agaibst polio, that went to to be crippledby the,disease, that they wouldnt otherwise have contracted

now its may seem obvious to state that the people most at risk from covid are those with comprmised immune system who are the very ones who shouldnt be given a live vacine

im not sure this factor will feature heavily, in which vacine is choosen and who gets it