Kit Dale doesn't drill.

[Monkey Turned Wolf]

What you’re saying is the people you regularly spar with pretty much know how you’re going to respond to that “attack” every time, correct? Do you think someone random who knows nothing about you and has never seen you spar would know that’s your response?

For the people arguing predictably...

If we’re talking a street encounter against unknown assailants, how predictable would you/we really be? Case in point: I regularly throw a jab-cross-right roundhouse-left back kick. I just naturally and comfortably throw that combo, as I feel momentum carries me through it smoothly and powerfully. The people I regularly spar with see it coming, and I rarely connect with the back kick. They see my follow-through on the roundhouse, and step way back out of range and don’t have to block it. Here’s the key though - they’re used to seeing me do it. My first few weeks there, I caught everyone with it. After the overly followed-through roundhouse, they’d close distance, and end up running into my back kick, multiplying the force if I didn’t pull it after contact.

I became predictable because they know me and have been hit with it more than enough times to keep making the same mistake. They’re expecting it. If this is someone who’s never seen me fight, how predictable am I? I’ve connected with that back kick on just about everyone I’ve ever sparred with’s stomach the first time or two. During my initial stint in karate way back in the day, I took class one day at another dojo in our organization. I threw it as my opening combo against my first two partners and it fight them both. So I decided to do it against everyone. Every single one of them walked into that back kick as I went down the line, about 8 of them. All of them were at least 3rd dan, none of them ever sparred with me before.

Predictable? Absolutely. If you’ve sparred with me before. If not, I don’t remember it ever not connecting after I felt good at it.

Predictably is something to seriously avoid if you’re a competitor. If it’s someone who doesn’t know you, there’s really no predictability. Perfect a tried and true combo so you can use it when it matters most. So what if everyone in the dojo knows it’s coming? I don’t plan on getting into a fight with any of them. And their counters help me improve it even more. Have a couple 3-4 of these combos that just flat out work every time against an unknowing person, and you’re pretty much good to go, so long as you’re not fighting people you’re training with.

Maybe I’m wrong. So what if everyone in kempodisciple’s dojo knows he’s going to use that response whenever they throw a hook. So what if they bait him by throwing it? If he’s good enough with his response, it’ll catch everyone who doesn’t know him. It’s not like someone off the street has video of him doing it beforehand.

I agree with all of this. My comment was specifically to sport/competition, since that's what Kit Dale does, and that seemed to be what people were arguing out beforehand. I personally know the entrance I'm most comfortable doing to enter distance and end a fight quickly, and constantly do it to the people I train with; it's a reflex and I like it. But if I started competing that may start being an issue.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

What you’re saying is the people you regularly spar with pretty much know how you’re going to respond to that “attack” every time, correct? Do you think someone random who knows nothing about you and has never seen you spar would know that’s your response?

For the people arguing predictably...

If we’re talking a street encounter against unknown assailants, how predictable would you/we really be? Case in point: I regularly throw a jab-cross-right roundhouse-left back kick. I just naturally and comfortably throw that combo, as I feel momentum carries me through it smoothly and powerfully. The people I regularly spar with see it coming, and I rarely connect with the back kick. They see my follow-through on the roundhouse, and step way back out of range and don’t have to block it. Here’s the key though - they’re used to seeing me do it. My first few weeks there, I caught everyone with it. After the overly followed-through roundhouse, they’d close distance, and end up running into my back kick, multiplying the force if I didn’t pull it after contact.

I became predictable because they know me and have been hit with it more than enough times to keep making the same mistake. They’re expecting it. If this is someone who’s never seen me fight, how predictable am I? I’ve connected with that back kick on just about everyone I’ve ever sparred with’s stomach the first time or two. During my initial stint in karate way back in the day, I took class one day at another dojo in our organization. I threw it as my opening combo against my first two partners and it fight them both. So I decided to do it against everyone. Every single one of them walked into that back kick as I went down the line, about 8 of them. All of them were at least 3rd dan, none of them ever sparred with me before.

Predictable? Absolutely. If you’ve sparred with me before. If not, I don’t remember it ever not connecting after I felt good at it.

Predictably is something to seriously avoid if you’re a competitor. If it’s someone who doesn’t know you, there’s really no predictability. Perfect a tried and true combo so you can use it when it matters most. So what if everyone in the dojo knows it’s coming? I don’t plan on getting into a fight with any of them. And their counters help me improve it even more. Have a couple 3-4 of these combos that just flat out work every time against an unknowing person, and you’re pretty much good to go, so long as you’re not fighting people you’re training with.

Maybe I’m wrong. So what if everyone in kempodisciple’s dojo knows he’s going to use that response whenever they throw a hook. So what if they bait him by throwing it? If he’s good enough with his response, it’ll catch everyone who doesn’t know him. It’s not like someone off the street has video of him doing it beforehand. It’s not like someone who’s going to attack me was able to study my tendencies and prepare.

“Predictably” is good, so long as your opponent doesn’t know what you’re going to throw and you don’t do it 10 times during your encounter with him. Going by what I’ve seen and been in in an actual fight, fights don’t last long enough to become predictable. Competition, sure; but not an actual fight.

This is one of the traps we have to watch for. We can draw an incorrect conclusion about the effectiveness of a technique (or combo), because our training partners are getting better at predicting/reading/stopping it, because they train with us. For competition, that would only matter if we're competing against those people OR our competitors are likely to be researching us (probably only at higher levels). Otherwise, as you point out, predictability isn't much of an issue, so long as it's not the same predictability for everyone in that style (problem for competition) or because we have a huge tell (problem for competition and possibly for defense).

 

[Gerry Seymour]

I agree with all of this. My comment was specifically to sport/competition, since that's what Kit Dale does, and that seemed to be what people were arguing out beforehand. I personally know the entrance I'm most comfortable doing to enter distance and end a fight quickly, and constantly do it to the people I train with; it's a reflex and I like it. But if I started competing that may start being an issue.

Even in competition, it would only be an issue after the first couple of times in a bout, or if they've researched you (even just watching your bouts earlier in the day in a day of competition). After that point, if you have a second-favorite, you can mix it in to be less predictable. Add a third that capitalizes on the openings they create when expecting the other two, and you have enough to keep them guessing.

 

[Tony Dismukes]

Which makes you predicable. Where as you talk to a top level competitor. He is exactly thinking about what he is doing when he does it. That is how you are three moves ahead of the other guy.

What you’re saying is the people you regularly spar with pretty much know how you’re going to respond to that “attack” every time, correct? Do you think someone random who knows nothing about you and has never seen you spar would know that’s your response?

For the people arguing predictably...

If we’re talking a street encounter against unknown assailants, how predictable would you/we really be? Case in point: I regularly throw a jab-cross-right roundhouse-left back kick. I just naturally and comfortably throw that combo, as I feel momentum carries me through it smoothly and powerfully. The people I regularly spar with see it coming, and I rarely connect with the back kick. They see my follow-through on the roundhouse, and step way back out of range and don’t have to block it. Here’s the key though - they’re used to seeing me do it. My first few weeks there, I caught everyone with it. After the overly followed-through roundhouse, they’d close distance, and end up running into my back kick, multiplying the force if I didn’t pull it after contact.

I became predictable because they know me and have been hit with it more than enough times to keep making the same mistake. They’re expecting it. If this is someone who’s never seen me fight, how predictable am I? I’ve connected with that back kick on just about everyone I’ve ever sparred with’s stomach the first time or two. During my initial stint in karate way back in the day, I took class one day at another dojo in our organization. I threw it as my opening combo against my first two partners and it fight them both. So I decided to do it against everyone. Every single one of them walked into that back kick as I went down the line, about 8 of them. All of them were at least 3rd dan, none of them ever sparred with me before.

Predictable? Absolutely. If you’ve sparred with me before. If not, I don’t remember it ever not connecting after I felt good at it.

Predictably is something to seriously avoid if you’re a competitor. If it’s someone who doesn’t know you, there’s really no predictability. Perfect a tried and true combo so you can use it when it matters most. So what if everyone in the dojo knows it’s coming? I don’t plan on getting into a fight with any of them. And their counters help me improve it even more. Have a couple 3-4 of these combos that just flat out work every time against an unknowing person, and you’re pretty much good to go, so long as you’re not fighting people you’re training with.

Maybe I’m wrong. So what if everyone in kempodisciple’s dojo knows he’s going to use that response whenever they throw a hook. So what if they bait him by throwing it? If he’s good enough with his response, it’ll catch everyone who doesn’t know him. It’s not like someone off the street has video of him doing it beforehand. It’s not like someone who’s going to attack me was able to study my tendencies and prepare.

“Predictably” is good, so long as your opponent doesn’t know what you’re going to throw and you don’t do it 10 times during your encounter with him. Going by what I’ve seen and been in in an actual fight, fights don’t last long enough to become predictable. Competition, sure; but not an actual fight.

This is one of the traps we have to watch for. We can draw an incorrect conclusion about the effectiveness of a technique (or combo), because our training partners are getting better at predicting/reading/stopping it, because they train with us. For competition, that would only matter if we're competing against those people OR our competitors are likely to be researching us (probably only at higher levels). Otherwise, as you point out, predictability isn't much of an issue, so long as it's not the same predictability for everyone in that style (problem for competition) or because we have a huge tell (problem for competition and possibly for defense).

In my opinion, the highest level of mastery is when your opponent knows what you are going to do and still can't stop you from doing it. See Bill Wallace, Roger Gracie, and Bernardo Faria for examples. There's something to be said for training with a consistent attack pattern and just learning how to deal with all the possible counters. Sometimes when I teach class, that's what I make the students do instead of completely free sparring. I have them start at the entry point of a specific technique and the fight is for whether or not they can finish it even though their sparring partner knows it's coming.

 

[drop bear]

In my opinion, the highest level of mastery is when your opponent knows what you are going to do and still can't stop you from doing it. See Bill Wallace, Roger Gracie, and Bernardo Faria for examples. There's something to be said for training with a consistent attack pattern and just learning how to deal with all the possible counters. Sometimes when I teach class, that's what I make the students do instead of completely free sparring. I have them start at the entry point of a specific technique and the fight is for whether or not they can finish it even though their sparring partner knows it's coming.

By the way do you think these guys are operating on a level of unconscious competence?

Because the impression I get is every move is chosen for a reason.

 

[Kung Fu Wang]

you don't think "I want to throw a roundhouse kick" you just do it.

The opportunity may not always be there. Most of the time, you want to create such opportunity. This is why you will need to plan ahead of the time.

I personally know the entrance I'm most comfortable doing to enter distance and end a fight quickly, and constantly do it to the people I train with; it's a reflex and I like it. But if I started competing that may start being an issue.

You (general YOU) should not expect the entering strategy to work all the time. If your opponent knows how to move back and remain distance. You may have to do it again. But since you only need it to work once, patient is important here.

IMO, most of the time your entering strategy doesn't work because you move in and your opponent moves back. When it works, usually it's your opponent moves in and you move in at the same time.

Many years ago, one of my friends said, "If I can move back faster than you, you will never be able to get me." His comment had bothered me for a long time.

My MA interest in the past 10 years was how to establish a successful clinch in a fist flying environment. I treat myself as an octopus and I treat my opponent as a shark. In order to prevent a shark from swimming away, the octopus has to wrap at least one of it's arms on the shark body ASAP. When that happen, even if that shark tries to swim away, that shark will pull the octopus with it. That's the strategy I have tried to develop.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

By the way do you think these guys are operating on a level of unconscious competence?

Because the impression I get is every move is chosen for a reason.

The move may be chosen, but they don't have to think through the movement as they do it. Here's the simplest (and nearly accurate) example I can think of off the top of my head: walking. I can walk without thinking about how I walk. That gives me the option of walking without thinking (just walking between two places, not needing to think about the route), or to walk carefully following a specific route I choose (to avoid the wet-paint walls, lava on the floor, or whatever). Both are examples of unconscious competence. An example of conscious competence is if I have to think, "Shift weight to right, lift left, place left over there, now shift weight to it..." We learn to be UC in walking while we're still learning to talk, so we don't remember that. But most of us remember doing a technique and having to think all the parts. So, imagine doing a Kimura lock, and having to think, "Right hand over here, make sure that thumb is tucked, keep controlling his head, keep pressure and base, left arm over there...." Once you reach UC, you can choose to control and expose his arm, then go for the Kimura, with your hands "knowing" where to go and how to maintain control. You may still have some conscious thought in adapting to his attempts to stop you - you can afford that thought because you don't have to think about how the heck a Kimura works. Your unconscious competence is what makes that elasticity possible.

 

[drop bear]

The move may be chosen, but they don't have to think through the movement as they do it. Here's the simplest (and nearly accurate) example I can think of off the top of my head: walking. I can walk without thinking about how I walk. That gives me the option of walking without thinking (just walking between two places, not needing to think about the route), or to walk carefully following a specific route I choose (to avoid the wet-paint walls, lava on the floor, or whatever). Both are examples of unconscious competence. An example of conscious competence is if I have to think, "Shift weight to right, lift left, place left over there, now shift weight to it..." We learn to be UC in walking while we're still learning to talk, so we don't remember that. But most of us remember doing a technique and having to think all the parts. So, imagine doing a Kimura lock, and having to think, "Right hand over here, make sure that thumb is tucked, keep controlling his head, keep pressure and base, left arm over there...." Once you reach UC, you can choose to control and expose his arm, then go for the Kimura, with your hands "knowing" where to go and how to maintain control. You may still have some conscious thought in adapting to his attempts to stop you - you can afford that thought because you don't have to think about how the heck a Kimura works. Your unconscious competence is what makes that elasticity possible.

If you were sneaking up on someone would that change things?

 

[Gerry Seymour]

If you were sneaking up on someone would that change things?

Good example - yes. I would make more conscious choices of where to walk, and would have to pay more attention to my stepping (I don't sneak a lot, so my actions are more conscious there). If I'm sneaking up on someone on concrete, and I'm wearing really soft shoes, I probably can do that without thinking about steps - just being more selective in my approach. If I'm sneaking up on someone in the woods (twigs and leaves on the ground), I'm probably going to have to choose each step and each weight transfer - it becomes much more conscious at that point.

 

[JR 137]

In my opinion, the highest level of mastery is when your opponent knows what you are going to do and still can't stop you from doing it. See Bill Wallace, Roger Gracie, and Bernardo Faria for examples. There's something to be said for training with a consistent attack pattern and just learning how to deal with all the possible counters. Sometimes when I teach class, that's what I make the students do instead of completely free sparring. I have them start at the entry point of a specific technique and the fight is for whether or not they can finish it even though their sparring partner knows it's coming.

I was thinking the same thing in my previous post, but left the part of “your opponent knows what’s coming but can’t do anything about it” out. I was trying to not write a novel.

You said it so much better than I could have too.