Evaluating Risk

[dvcochran]

I train fighting, live with my ex-wife in a small house on the slope of a volcano, where I smoke cigars and work as a cop.

Risk, schmisk.

You know what they say about keeping your friends and enemies close. Killing two birds with one stone?

 

[Buka]

You know what they say about keeping your friends and enemies close. Killing two birds with one stone?

I have such a fabulous reply to that question, but I think I'll P.M it to you instead.

 

[Buka]

Hmmm, tried a PM, but that wouldn't work. Drat.

I'll get back to it later.

 

[Buka]

Nothing in my house is working properly right now. Must be from the fire.

 

[Buka]

My laptop is all faquaed up.

 

[punisher73]

I went and got certified as a CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) instructor. It basis is teaching civilians what to do in emergency situations, like tornado, flood, earthquake etc. and how to triage a mass casualty event for medical help and how to provide basic medical aid. I think people who are serious about protecting their family should take a course like this along with CPR/AED certification.

I think that the potential for a "bad event" is a lot higher than many people think in the US. In the majority of the US, you live in a location where there is a risk for wildfires, floods, earthquakes or tornadoes. Not to mention the highway and railway system in the US increases the chances for a very large chemical spill. Let alone, what do you do if your loved one is choking or has a heart attack while in public/home.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

I went and got certified as a CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) instructor. It basis is teaching civilians what to do in emergency situations, like tornado, flood, earthquake etc. and how to triage a mass casualty event for medical help and how to provide basic medical aid. I think people who are serious about protecting their family should take a course like this along with CPR/AED certification.

I think that the potential for a "bad event" is a lot higher than many people think in the US. In the majority of the US, you live in a location where there is a risk for wildfires, floods, earthquakes or tornadoes. Not to mention the highway and railway system in the US increases the chances for a very large chemical spill. Let alone, what do you do if your loved one is choking or has a heart attack while in public/home.

Agree. I'm a registered weather spotter. Fun training. Free. Worthwhile.

 

[drop bear]

We get a bit of weather. Everyone has cyclone kits.

 

[jobo]

Agree. I'm a registered weather spotter. Fun training. Free. Worthwhile.

do you need to be registered I just look out of the window and say flipping raining again

 

[pdg]

do you need to be registered I just look out of the window and say flipping raining again

You obviously haven't had the full training.

To be certified you need to be able to classify the type of rain - like light misting, cats and dogs, drizzle, bloody deluge, that 'orrible fine stuff what makes you wet, etc.

Of course, there are at least 17 more classifications for British rain.

But only one that would possibly come under the 'natural disaster' heading, just, and only available in certain areas...

 

[Monkey Turned Wolf]

I went and got certified as a CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) instructor. It basis is teaching civilians what to do in emergency situations, like tornado, flood, earthquake etc. and how to triage a mass casualty event for medical help and how to provide basic medical aid. I think people who are serious about protecting their family should take a course like this along with CPR/AED certification.

I think that the potential for a "bad event" is a lot higher than many people think in the US. In the majority of the US, you live in a location where there is a risk for wildfires, floods, earthquakes or tornadoes. Not to mention the highway and railway system in the US increases the chances for a very large chemical spill. Let alone, what do you do if your loved one is choking or has a heart attack while in public/home.

How do i get certified and/or trained for this? Is there a national database for classes?

 

[jobo]

You obviously haven't had the full training.

To be certified you need to be able to classify the type of rain - like light misting, cats and dogs, drizzle, bloody deluge, that 'orrible fine stuff what makes you wet, etc.

Of course, there are at least 17 more classifications for British rain.

But only one that would possibly come under the 'natural disaster' heading, just, and only available in certain areas...

in Manchester there's only four classification of rain,, ,, been raining, still raining,will rain soon and( once a year, )jeez its hot, I wish it would rain

 

[Deleted member 39746]

If we were serious, we'd buy fire extinguishers and learn how to use them.

Prepare for the more likely series of events/dangers before the most unlikely. And plenty of people have them and do to prepare for fire likewise with smoke detectors which are pretty much standard in any modern countries housing. Same with the fire services in them constantly reminding people to check them and keep them up to date and not to overload sockets etc.

I would propose the fitness benefit for martial arts and combat sports to push it up there on the list and the potential going professional in a combat sport can lift people out of poverty etc to put it high as a needed skill to some people. And then you have underlying fears and it boosting confidence etc.


Welcome to realistic prepping my friend.

(i would argue and say this falls outside the scope of martial arts as a thing though)

 

[jobo]

Prepare for the more likely series of events/dangers before the most unlikely. And plenty of people have them and do to prepare for fire likewise with smoke detectors which are pretty much standard in any modern countries housing. Same with the fire services in them constantly reminding people to check them and keep them up to date and not to overload sockets etc.

I would propose the fitness benefit for martial arts and combat sports to push it up there on the list and the potential going professional in a combat sport can lift people out of poverty etc to put it high as a needed skill to some people. And then you have underlying fears and it boosting confidence etc.


Welcome to realistic prepping my friend.

(i would argue and say this falls outside the scope of martial arts as a thing though)

yes, but it's clear that some people on here include moving as there's a fire coming your way as self defence and once you've opened that can of worms seemingly anything counts

 

[Deleted member 39746]

yes, but it's clear that some people on here include moving as there's a fire coming your way as self defence and once you've opened that can of worms seemingly anything counts

I would argue that as a legitimate usage of the term self defence, same with against animals (including insects and tics).

There isn't a clear definitive definition of self defence. The two words together literally mean any action taken to defend yourself.

There is a valid issue here that people neglect very probable and more likely events to happen to them to more fantasy esque events. But then if you enjoy what you do and its physically active and isn't entirely useless, could be doing something worse with your time.

 

[Deleted member 39746]

Oh and sorry for the double post, but since this has become a advice thread, no idea if anyone has cited it yet:
Citizen Corps | Ready.gov
Plan Ahead for Disasters | Ready.gov (main page for the ready thing)

All though its U.S centric, some of the advice etc fits outside it. And i think you should be able to find your areas disaster plans with some google searching if they exist and/or are public. I think the FEMA website might have some advice snippets or cite to the ready website for it as well.


edit: This has a subsection on it for the previously mentioned CERT thing also. Stop the Bleed

 

[Gerry Seymour]

well no, if you were evaluating risk, then you'd evaluated if you need fire extinguisher, what type and what size, and where !

people with home fire extinguisher s invariably have the wrong size the wrong type in the wrong place, a fact they only realisa e when they have a fire, and they would have been better advised to spend the time they have wasted on the fire extinguisher, evacuating themselves.

a strong parallel perhaps with their choice of ma ?

I've needed mine twice. Both times it was someplace easy to reach (though not near the fire), and both times it served perfectly.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

Back when I still taught, I would have all of the students create a "fire plan" of what to do in case of fire, where the family meeting spot was etc. I think that if you say you teach "self-defense" then you need to cover all dangers (within reason....always the "what if 20 ninjas jump out of the tree at you") that a person is likely to face. In Michigan, I covered tornados since that is a strong possibility...earthquakes, not at all as a risk.

You're talking about personal safety. While I don't have a problem with folks including this in their teaching, IMO it's not part of self-defense. Self-defense (my usage of the term) is about defending against an attack by a person. Fires, floods, car wrecks aren't attacks.

I cover very little about personal safety (beyond what's pertinent to self-defense) in my classes. I talked about it more when I taught teens. If I had a full-time school and people coming to classes more often, I might give it more time.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

not in Manchester England it doesn't, a bit of a strong wind and maybe a couple of foot of flooding and i live on top of a very big hill. there is an " earth quake " fault, the last quake shook two books of a shelf in my house and caused 300 quids worth of damage a cross the whole city .

i mean really don't live in an earth quake,, hurricane or forest fire zone and your fine, basically don't buy a house in the Hollywood hills or new Orleans oh and avoiding volcanos, may also be prudent and don't go twister watching, that's my advice for avoiding natural disasters

Agreed, though tornadoes can be more dangerous than your closing comment suggests. Just not going out to look won't protect you in a serious one - had one that basically destroyed a small town a few years ago. Leveled entire buildings along the way.

 

[jobo]

Agreed, though tornadoes can be more dangerous than your closing comment suggests. Just not going out to look won't protect you in a serious one - had one that basically destroyed a small town a few years ago. Leveled entire buildings along the way.

I used to do a section in my management training course, on risk evaluation, and people dependent on personality were either in the toatly flippent or deeply paranoid camps, or commonly totally flippent about high risk and deeply paroinid about about slight risk, and I used to try and get people to evaluate risks objectively.

in this country, your chance of meeting an untimley end, that any death that's not linked to old age. is 1in 100,000 in any year. the odds start to drop dependent on life style and environment, if you smoke, if you ride a motorbike, in you work in construction or live next to a munitions factory etc. but they are still reassuringly high, that this year is not your last.

bizarly if you crunch the figures, the highest risk is dying, is, through asteroid strike, as though the odd in any given year are very low, the death toll if one happen will almost certainly include you. and a big one is on its way, its just a matter of when! the number of people worrying about this, I suggest are very low

you could take the population of the great plains or where ever, calculate the average death toll through twisters and come up with a fairly good assessment of the risks tornado s actually pose to you. if you lived there. I'm willing to bet that the odds against you being sucked up, span round and spat out are considerably less than dying in a house fire, car crash or other more mundane death !