Evaluating Risk

[Danny T]

Looking outside over the past several hours. Light rain and a few wind gusts.
Tropical Storm Barry is just making landfall approx. 50 miles away. If not having the weather service just looking outside would not give any indication the danger of a tropical storm or the amount rain expected would be present.

 

[jobo]

I would argue that as a legitimate usage of the term self defence, same with against animals (including insects and tics).

There isn't a clear definitive definition of self defence. The two words together literally mean any action taken to defend yourself.

There is a valid issue here that people neglect very probable and more likely events to happen to them to more fantasy esque events. But then if you enjoy what you do and its physically active and isn't entirely useless, could be doing something worse with your time.

well see post above, are these " things " more likely and if they are how more likely?.

I'm pretty sure you have more chance of being murdered in California than dying in a wild fire, or an earthquake and if your murdered there a fairly high chance it was by your spouse, famil or " friend" etc, those people you secure your house to protect are a statically greater risk to you than those your locking out.

I see ma, or more specifically the training I dbe to support ma ( ie fitness ) to be of considerable use in most emergency siutuations, and though you may not be able to karate kick a house fire, the ability to climb out if a window and climb down a drain pipe whilst carrying your children may come in handy

 

[dvcochran]

Looking outside over the past several hours. Light rain and a few wind gusts.
Tropical Storm Barry is just making landfall approx. 50 miles away. If not having the weather service just looking outside would not give any indication the danger of a tropical storm or the amount rain expected would be present.

Buckle down and stay safe Danny.

 

[jobo]

Looking outside over the past several hours. Light rain and a few wind gusts.
Tropical Storm Barry is just making landfall approx. 50 miles away. If not having the weather service just looking outside would not give any indication the danger of a tropical storm or the amount rain expected would be present.

and what have you done with this information ? and how dangerous is a tropical storm that's 50 miles away ?

 

[pdg]

and what have you done with this information ? and how dangerous is a tropical storm that's 50 miles away ?

Depending on the local topography, a tropical storm 50 miles away could be absolutely nothing, or it could be life threatening.

It might even land on you from that distance, 50 miles is nothing in the scheme of things when it comes to the movement of a decent sized storm.

We just don't get that sort of storm over here...


The closest (on record) we've ever really got was in 1987 with "The Great Storm", which compared to the stuff that hits certain parts of the US was little more than a squall.

That storm damaged my dad's shed and took about 3 tiles off the roof of my school. Oh, and it blew over a tree or two in the village...

 

[Danny T]

and what have you done with this information ? and how dangerous is a tropical storm that's 50 miles away ?

In the past 30 minutes the winds have increased to approx 50 miles per hour sustained and increasing. Will be up to approx 70 mph. Raining heavy now. We will be under this for the next 10-12 hours. Rain fall is expected to be about 24 inches during that period of time. Electricity is down however we have a generator and fuel.

 

[jobo]

Depending on the local topography, a tropical storm 50 miles away could be absolutely nothing, or it could be life threatening.

It might even land on you from that distance, 50 miles is nothing in the scheme of things when it comes to the movement of a decent sized storm.

We just don't get that sort of storm over here...


The closest (on record) we've ever really got was in 1987 with "The Great Storm", which compared to the stuff that hits certain parts of the US was little more than a squall.

That storm damaged my dad's shed and took about 3 tiles off the roof of my school. Oh, and it blew over a tree or two in the village...

in what way would a tropic storme be life threatening, i mean sure a tree could fall on you or you could be decapitated by a roofing slate, but the odds against either happening to you, are considerable, what's the death toll from the average tropical storm ?

 

[jobo]

In the past 30 minutes the winds have increased to approx 50 miles per hour sustained and increasing. Will be up to approx 70 mph. Raining heavy now. We will be under this for the next 10-12 hours. Rain fall is expected to be about 24 inches during that period of time. Electricity is down however we have a generator and fuel.

so a bit of strong wind and some heavy rain then ! 24 inches of rain doesn't mean 24 of standing water, not unless you live in a hole.

but the question was, what precautions have you taken with the hour or so notice you were given, that you couldn't take now, having noticed the strong winds and rain by looking oiyt of the window?

 

[Danny T]

The danger would depend upon on where one is? And that would dictate what one does to assure safety. There are people who live in low lying coastal areas. Flooding from the storm and the rain combined creates safety concerns. There are people who work on the water, high seas are a danger. Swollen drainage areas due to both the storm surge and rain causes backup flooding for driving and homes in lower lying areas. In those areas people need to get out before the flooding happens. High winds do cause problems when blowing over trees (which does happen) downed power lines cause travel out of such areas very dangerous so having knowledge as to the potential has impact on those getting to safer areas early. Of course you know this...or maybe you don't.

 

[jobo]

The danger would depend upon on where one is? And that would dictate what one does to assure safety. There are people who live in low lying coastal areas. Flooding from the storm and the rain combined creates safety concerns. There are people who work on the water, high seas are a danger. Swollen drainage areas due to both the storm surge and rain causes backup flooding for driving and homes in lower lying areas. In those areas people need to get out before the flooding happens. High winds do cause problems when blowing over trees (which does happen) downed power lines cause travel out of such areas very dangerous so having knowledge as to the potential has impact on those getting to safer areas early. Of course you know this...or maybe you don't.

but that not at all answering my question, which of those apply to you and what have you done to mitigate them in the last hours or so, that you couldn't do now ?

 

[Danny T]

but that not at all answering my question, which of those apply to you and what have you done to mitigate them in the last hours or so, that you couldn't do now ?

You edited your post and added the question being specific to me.

 

[jobo]

You edited your post and added the question being specific to me.

and ? I edited my post before you answered by 11 minetes, the question still stands!

your telling me about how useful it was having notice of storm barry, and I'm inquiring what practicial use that actually was to you ?

 

[Gerry Seymour]

I used to do a section in my management training course, on risk evaluation, and people dependent on personality were either in the toatly flippent or deeply paranoid camps, or commonly totally flippent about high risk and deeply paroinid about about slight risk, and I used to try and get people to evaluate risks objectively.

in this country, your chance of meeting an untimley end, that any death that's not linked to old age. is 1in 100,000 in any year. the odds start to drop dependent on life style and environment, if you smoke, if you ride a motorbike, in you work in construction or live next to a munitions factory etc. but they are still reassuringly high, that this year is not your last.

bizarly if you crunch the figures, the highest risk is dying, is, through asteroid strike, as though the odd in any given year are very low, the death toll if one happen will almost certainly include you. and a big one is on its way, its just a matter of when! the number of people worrying about this, I suggest are very low

you could take the population of the great plains or where ever, calculate the average death toll through twisters and come up with a fairly good assessment of the risks tornado s actually pose to you. if you lived there. I'm willing to bet that the odds against you being sucked up, span round and spat out are considerably less than dying in a house fire, car crash or other more mundane death !

The problem is that those statistics - while accurate - miss the variability of the risk. When a big tornado hits an area, it's a sudden and extreme risk to many people at once. It ends up being a bit like that asteroid strike in some ways. And knowing what to do when one is about can dramatically shift the risk during that period.

Looking at risk on an annual basis can actually mask the risk. There's a very low chance of any one person dying in any given year, but if you work the probabilities, the risk is cumulative (multiplying the chance of not dying year over year).

 

[Gerry Seymour]

so a bit of strong wind and some heavy rain then ! 24 inches of rain doesn't mean 24 of standing water, not unless you live in a hole.

but the question was, what precautions have you taken with the hour or so notice you were given, that you couldn't take now, having noticed the strong winds and rain by looking oiyt of the window?

You're apparently not familiar with what strong winds can do, nor with what risk flooding represents (to say nothing of the risk a flash flood represents). People do die in flooded areas, entirely because they didn't understand those risks or because they weren't aware of the risk of the flood occurring.

 

[jobo]

The problem is that those statistics - while accurate - miss the variability of the risk. When a big tornado hits an area, it's a sudden and extreme risk to many people at once. It ends up being a bit like that asteroid strike in some ways. And knowing what to do when one is about can dramatically shift the risk during that period.

Looking at risk on an annual basis can actually mask the risk. There's a very low chance of any one person dying in any given year, but if you work the probabilities, the risk is cumulative (multiplying the chance of not dying year over year).

it's an extreme risk for a very few number if people, that's makes the risk to the general population eof the area extremely low .

your risk is aways a factor of how likely is it to happen to you and the consequences of it happening. that results in a very low risk of death by tornado. that doesn't change much if you look at it cumulatively, provide you look at the risks your using for comparison cumulativly as well. say 70 years of car crash deaths v 70 years if twister deaths for the same population.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

and ? I edited my post before you answered by 11 minetes, the question still stands!

your telling me about how useful it was having notice of storm barry, and I'm inquiring what practicial use that actually was to you ?

So information should be ignored unless it proves to be useful? That's going to make it tricky to determine which is the useful information. Sometimes, the usefulness is that it tells you you're not at risk.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

it's an extreme risk for a very few number if people, that's makes the risk to the general population eof the area extremely low .

your risk is aways a factor of how likely is it to happen to you and the consequences of it happening. that results in a very low risk of death by tornado. that doesn't change much if you look at it cumulatively, provide you look at the risks your using for comparison cumulativly as well. say 70 years of car crash deaths v 70 years if twister deaths for the same population.

So, your advice to people in tornado-prone areas is just to ignore the tornadoes??

 

[jobo]

You're apparently not familiar with what strong winds can do, nor with what risk flooding represents (to say nothing of the risk a flash flood represents). People do die in flooded areas, entirely because they didn't understand those risks or because they weren't aware of the risk of the flood occurring.

people drown in bath because they didn't understand the risk if bbathibg while very drunk. the issue is what level of risk are you realistically exposed to, not is it remotley possible

 

[jobo]

So, your advice to people in tornado-prone areas is just to ignore the tornadoes??

no if one was coming my way id move, in much the same way as I would if it was a big truck
, my advice to people who lived in a tornado area, would be to take sensible precaution but accept there are far high risks in your life that you might want to worry about first,, so quit smoking/ drinkingg and sugar if you really want the most years out of your life, as all of those will most surly reduce your life span if measured cumlativly and in sure that alcohol related deaths exceed twister deaths in any given year or cumulatively

 

[Danny T]

and ? I edited my post before you answered by 11 minetes, the question still stands!

your telling me about how useful it was having notice of storm barry, and I'm inquiring what practicial use that actually was to you ?

LOL...you may not believe it jobo but I don't spend a great deal of my time checking on your posts, edits you do, or time my any of my responses to any of them.

Knowing a tropical storm now upgrade to a hurricane just in the past few minutes is a probability in my area I did following in the past 30 hours;
at my business, removed all the flags and banners we have in the front of the building to prevent them from being tattered in the abnormally high winds. Removed the lettering in the marquis signs so as to now lose them due to the abnormally high winds. Picked up and stored inside some of the outside equipment in our outside training areas to protect them from the abnormally high winds.

At my home; picked up and stored the outside furniture and loose yard items we have. Added several additional braces to the wood fence around the perimeter of my yard to assure it not being blown over in the abnormally high winds. Closed the shutters to protect the windows on the house from flying debris from the winds or the possibility of spinoff tornadoes.

Helped my brother who lives in a lower lying area do some sandbagging due to the possibility of flooding in his area.
Helped a elderly neighbor assure her home was protected by picking up her outside furniture and storing it for her and helped board her windows.

Filled up the generator, addition fuel containers, knowing we would mostly likely lose electricity for as much as 3 days.

Removed my boat from the inlet water dock and stored it.