America Unsustainable...

[psi_radar]

Then you haven't looked at the literature...like the rest of suburbia...beep beep.

And its not pessimistic in any way to say that we need to conserve more and change our lives.

Since Tgace was ultimately commenting on what I said, you're stating I haven't done the research, and I have. Even the guy who wrote "The Wolf at the Door" said there were two ultimate visions of the future regarding peak oil. One was basically the opinion I expressed, the other one sounds more like yours, which to me resembles "Road Warrior," "Riddley Walker," or various other post-apocalyptic visions.

We do need to start thinking about it, and changing our habits. Some of us will do it voluntarily, others will wait until economics forces our hand. Awareness will build as the little things get more expensive. Conservation will slow the rate of consumption, or keep it level. There are ultimate solutions out there--nuclear, wind, water (current turbines), solar-- for us to exploit when they become economically feasible.

The human race is ingenious and flexible. A new economy will replace the oil based one. New products and modes of living will emerge. There may be some hard transitions in some places, but overall we'll be ok. If you don't believe me, stock up on twinkies and peeps. They've got what, a 50-year shelf life. Other than that, what can you do other than change your own habits and support change in your community? By the way, what did you think of my telecommute/hub idea?

Look on the bright side--we really don't need to worry about global warming if we're running out of hydrocarbons to burn.

 

[Tgace]

Look on the bright side--we really don't need to worry about global warming if we're running out of hydrocarbons to burn.

Yeah! See. Consumerism is actually good for the planet. Lets all buy Hummers so we run out faster.

 

[Andrew Green]

I don't think you'll find anyone disagreeing that conservation is good.

But the "End is coming" message is a bit overblown. It makes it sound like all of a sudden we'll wake up and that will be it, no more gas.

Nothing happens over night, and while we may be reaching "peak oil" there is still a lot left, and new technologies and power sources ARE being developed. There is no need for a massive shift, a gruadual one will do just fine.

SOmewhere up there running out of wood being the opening for coal to take over. That didn't happen over night either. It wasn't just one day *poof* no more wood what now?

Then coal to oil, again not overnight.

Innovation follows need, as the need grows so will the replacement technologies. But as long as the need isn't there, getting alternate power sources isn't neccessary. It will happen, but over time.

We, as a planet, will adapt. If one energy source gets depleted another will fill in as it is on the way out.

 

[Rich Parsons]

I gave up using a snowblower. I use an old-fashioned shovel. I also use an electric lawn mower, to conserve fuel.

You might save fuel at your house, but the fuel as mentioned by at least on other could be more. In particular since Coal is a major source for Electricity, it has worse emissions then your Lawn Mower that meets California Air Resouce Board (CARB) requirements.

 

[Rich Parsons]

This thread has convinced me that the American Way of Life is unsustainable. I am curious as to what people on Martial Talk would be willing to give up in there lives in order to better live in a future of constrained resource and energy supply.

For example, would you...


1. Buy a smaller house?

I did, but coudl I go smaller? Yes, but at what cost to safety and my other items?

2. Share a home with another family?

No.

3. Plant a garden to supplement your diet?

Yes

4. Drive one small car?

As mentioned before, size does matter in this case. Yet, my sports car that I drive as my primary now, gets 26 MPG while racing around the courty side. 30 MPG if I drive more reasonable.

5. Move out of the suburbs and back into the city?

No, See 16.

6. Live less then a mile from work?

No, See 16.

7. Walk, ride, or ski to do errands?

By Ride you mean horse, or bicycle? Yes. I use my Motorcycle when I can, but prefer a vehicle for the possible shower or snow or hail.

8. Would you change careers?

I have thought about this, and the answer is Not right now.

9. Would you use more public transit?

Yes, if it was reliable and safe, and clean.

10. Would you reuse anything that could be reused?

I re-use a lot. Not sure about re-using human waste though.

11. Join an organic commune?

No, See 16

12. Start a farmer's coop?

No, See 16

13. Vacation closer to home?

I do already, and like to do it on my Motorcycle.

14. Communally share tools...like a snowblower for multiple families?

Not sure it would work.

15. Communally share vehicles...like a truck for multiple families?

Did this with my Dad and all the kids in the extended and friends. Now I do it with my truck and friends.

16. Long winded reply:

If everyone moved back into the cities, and closer to work would cause some major issues with today's economy and culture. The cost of land would go up and then the large corporations would be able to step in and make a small city state, by creating a single place for people to work and live and buy all they need. These archologies would be closed economies, and people might not have to live. One might say, why would they move in? It is cheaper, to live in the corporate housing then elsewhere. So, now you are more dependant upon the company to provide your safety and your food supply and your energy, as well as your job for income.

Now, I agree that people should look into saving energy and the ecology and in the long run themselves.

 

[Makalakumu]

There is always a way out, timing is the key...

The nature of Hubbert's curve is that there is a precipitous plateau and then a rather precipitous decline. If you look at the ASPO graphs, conservation technology has been taken into account, that is why they don't look like a true bell curve 20-50 years out.

It's not like we are going to run out of gas. In 50 or 200 years, there will still be people pumping oil. The oil will just get more expensive. The problem, as I've stated before, is that the economy is overly dependent...nearly completely dependent on oil. Any rise in the price of oil affects...everything.

The "doomsday" scenario follows a sharp increase in the price of oil. The "market driven change" scenario follows a gradual increase. A sharp increase in the price of oil is caused by a sharp decline in production. This follows after the narrowing of Hubbert's curve from overproduction. Conversely, a gradual decline follows from a carefully planned conservation effort.

If we are "Peaked" now, then the time to start conserving is now, while we still have access to the oil wealth of the late 20th century. Instead, we are overproducing the world's stocks and burning as fast as we possibly can...the exact thing we do not want to be doing.

A "doomsday" scenario is just that. A scenario. An option. It is NOT the future. Yet, we can make it the future with bad decisions. Thus we find the scenarios ultimate usefullness. They are nothing but red flags.

No amount of innovation can change an economy as large as ours and as addicted to oil as ours in over to anything in less then 15-20 years (the Bush Administration says 50, but they have a vested interest in the matter). Pumping and using oil at the rates that we are using it could result in very steep production in less then ten.

Then what? How do you fix a broken economy with nothing to invest?

 

[psi_radar]

The post-oil economy will likely be driven by new technologies that replace the old infrastructure. America has great engineers. It's quite possible conservation and alternative energy technologies will present the next economic boon.

I know I sound like all unicorns and rainbows, but honestly I do see a lot of opportunity for progress here.

 

[Makalakumu]

The post-oil economy will likely be driven by new technologies that replace the old infrastructure. America has great engineers. It's quite possible conservation and alternative energy technologies will present the next economic boon.

I know I sound like all unicorns and rainbows, but honestly I do see a lot of opportunity for progress here.

So do I and I think the future could be really great.

I imagine that we will all live more locally. I imagine that we will be forced to buy things made closer to home by American hands. I imagine that we will have to worry alot less about pollution because conservation and alternatives are much cleaner. I also think that we will be healthier because we'll have to do more things by hand and we will have to eat more organically grown produce. I also imagine a slower society, that is less on the move and more in tune with its surroundings.

What is there to dislike about the above?

My fear is that "oil myopia" will set in and the "entitlements" of the suburbs will drive our policy rather then common sense. I can see some people resisting change to the point where they will elect any maniac that promises more oil. The possibility for darkness, unfortunately, exists.

One cannot forget the amount of cultural inertia that has been constructed over the last fifty years. In essense, we are talking about changing The American Dream. No matter how nicely put, people are being told that the current American Dream has no future.

 

[sgtmac_46]

So do I and I think the future could be really great.

I imagine that we will all live more locally. I imagine that we will be forced to buy things made closer to home by American hands. I imagine that we will have to worry alot less about pollution because conservation and alternatives are much cleaner. I also think that we will be healthier because we'll have to do more things by hand and we will have to eat more organically grown produce. I also imagine a slower society, that is less on the move and more in tune with its surroundings.

What is there to dislike about the above?

My fear is that "oil myopia" will set in and the "entitlements" of the suburbs will drive our policy rather then common sense. I can see some people resisting change to the point where they will elect any maniac that promises more oil. The possibility for darkness, unfortunately, exists.

One cannot forget the amount of cultural inertia that has been constructed over the last fifty years. In essense, we are talking about changing The American Dream. No matter how nicely put, people are being told that the current American Dream has no future.

We as Americans are the great procrastinators. We will do something as SOON as we realize oil is just about gone. Then we'll play catch up.

Lets not forget, however, that new advancements are driven by demand. We as Americans have demand a better mouse trap, and pay for it, before we'll get one. I don't think the sacrifice will be that huge if we invest in it. Alternative energy technology exists, and it's more than capable of dealing with our energy demands, if we sacrifice in the short term.