Who do you think WILL win the upcoming election?

[Steve]

Not wish will win. Not want to win or will vote for or any of that.

Who do you think is going to be our President into 2016? Who's going to lock down the electoral votes to get the nod? Who's running the better campaign? Who's got the momentum or is dropping the ball?

I'm hoping we can shed... at least some of the political vitriol and focus instead on political strategy in this thread. I'm adding third party candidates just in case, but I expect they won't get many votes.

 

[Steve]

So, for my vote, I picked Obama. I think it's a virtual lock and will ultimately be a moderate to severe drubbing in the electoral college. I called it a landslide for Obama months ago and have seen nothing that has led me to believe otherwise. He's got momentum, and frankly, Romney is running a terrible campaign.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

In Romney's favor though are the very low expectations for him going into the debates tomorrow. He's known as a fairly good debater, but Obama is considered a slick, polished speaker. The low expectations worked in Bush's favor over Gore and Kerry, and could set such a low bar that Romney can't help but to exceed expectations.

The caveat to that is that Bush had what Romney doesn't: an easy, "aw shucks" charm.

I look forward to tomorrow night's debate, but ultimately, I predict 4 more years of Obama.

 

[arnisador]

Polling is an accurate means of prediction. Obama is expected to win.

 

[Makalakumu]

The banksters, the multinationals like Monsanto, Halliburton, Lockheed, Raytheon, Government itself will win because it will expand, government cronies will win, the TSA will win, etc...

 

[WC_lun]

Obama.

Mr Romney has run a pretty terrible campaign. I think a lot of Americans kind of use that as a yardstick on if a person is ready for POTUS. If you cannot run a decent campaign, how the heck would you be expected to do the ultimate head job of POTUS? I do think the Me romeny has the advantage of low expectations going into this first debate. That could be the only thing that saves his bid for potus.

 

[seasoned]

Hopefully the better person, but, that's not always the case.....................

 

[Big Don]

I voted other. I just don't know. I can't believe there are enough people dumb enough to vote for Obama again, but, human stupidity shouldn't be underestimated.
Obama and his proxies have done a far better job of lying about Romney and Ryan than they have done telling the truth about his record...

 

[Steve]

So then you think Obama will win? It's not about what you want.

I love the Seahawks, but As much as I'd like to see them win the Super Bowl, I can objectively say that its pretty unlikely.




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[Tames D]

Romney. I think most Americans are on to Obama. Lack of expeience is showing. Time to change the guard.

 

[Big Don]

So then you think Obama will win? It's not about what you want.

I love the Seahawks, but As much as I'd like to see them win the Super Bowl, I can objectively say that its pretty unlikely.




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The polls don't seem to favor either, and I remember 1984.

 

[crushing]

There are only a few swing swing states and they seem to be polling in favor of Obama in wider and wider margins. While the overall popular vote may be close, I think Obama wins the vote of the electoral college in a landslide provided there isn't some sort of October surprise. I haven't seen many presidential political ads in Michigan lately, which leads me to think that, like McCain, Romney has already given up on Michigan.

The appearance of a competitive race is a more compelling story, which draws viewers/readers and increases advertising revenue.

I have competing theories as to why the Romney campaign is doing so poorly-

1. It's not easy to live a character. Romney is not really as conservative as the person he is playing during this election cycle. But, he must continue to play that character to try to drive traffic to the polls on the election day and have any chance of winning. These conflict between who he is and the character he plays leads to inconsistency and confusion on the campaign trail.

2. The conspiracy theorist side of me thinks that maybe Romney is throwing this election (this battle) to put his party in a better position of power for years to come. That comes from the following quote: "Party that wins White House could become minority party for many years if, as seems increasingly likely, world enters recession in 2013." -Robert Reich via Twitter.

 

[Monkey Turned Wolf]

according to most polling websites/statistical analysis', unless some huge upset occurs, Obama has 269 definite electoral college votes, while romney doesn't even have 200 definite votes. Even if Romney gets every other one, unless he can somehow steal away a state from Obama, it will be a tie, and then he still has to fight to get congress to choose him over Obama. It's a really tough road for Romney if he wants to win.

 

[Sukerkin]

Don't forget to factor in the possibility of what happens if people who would vote for Obama decide it's clear he will win and therefor do not bother to cast their vote. Such things can happen when predictions are begun too early and conclusions are offered too definitely.

 

[Big Don]

Don't forget to factor in the possibility of what happens if people who would vote for Obama decide it's clear he will win and therefor do not bother to cast their vote. Such things can happen when predictions are begun too early and conclusions are offered too definitely.

Which is why dishonest polling practices, such as over sampling democrats and under sampling republicans are so nefarious.

 

[Sukerkin]

Aye, I agree. Polls can be intentially used to skew results by influencing voters one way or another, which is indeed a nefarious thing to do. Of course the outcome can be different than those committing the skulduggery intend.

So, for example, as I theorised above, if poll results are misrepresented to show that Obama has a large advantage in support, then one outcome could be that those that would otherwise vote for him do not bother to do so. It could also, perhaps, dissuade those who would vote for Romney from doing so as they feel there is no point. But it could also equally galvanise Republican voters to make sure that they and those that they know do go to cast their votes.

For me, having been persuaded by several years of political discussion on MT, I am of the opinion that everyone should vote their conscience always, regardless of the perceived chance of the candidate of their choice winning. I have come to feel that abstaining from voting, which is what I used to do as a protest against the system, or 'tactical' voting makes a mockery of the whole concept of democracy.

 

[WC_lun]

I don't believe every poll has been using dishonest poll practices. Such claims are just Republicans trying to muddy the waters on who America seems to prefer at this moment in time. I mean seriously, Fox News has Obama ahead in the polls. The top 20 polls all have Obama ahead right now. That doesn't mean things can't change or that polls don't effect voters. However, it tends to dismiss this claim of dishonest polling practices.

I believe a far more insidious thing for fairness in American voting is the seemingly coordinated effort to supress voter turn out through new voter laws. Even when such laws have been struck down or implementation put on hold, the attempts to convince people they are already law has continued. The company that Republicans used in many swing states to get out the vote has been fired by the RNC and charged for registration fraud. Add to that the destruction of some Democratic registrations by the company and it becomes a real problem. A person thinks they are registered, but the registration form was never turned in by the company collecting them. Fortunately, this does not look to be as widespread as the fictional registrations, but as one member has stated, how much fraud is too much? This is also another thing that voter ID would not address and also shows a continued pattern of voter suppression by some members of the RNC.

 

[Steve]

Anyone's prediction change as a result of the debate last night?

 

[elder999]

Anyone's prediction change as a result of the debate last night?

No. We've got two more presidential, and one vice-presidential debate to go.

Bush "lost" all of his debates to John Kerry; it didn't make any difference.

 

[Sukerkin]

As noted in one of the other threads about this election, anyone whose view is swayed by the slickness of the 'salesman' rather than the quality of the 'product' should be slapped with a wet haddock until they come to their senses.

 

[Tgace]

Well....that's how the sitting POTUS got his job. :/

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