1. The issue was not about effectiveness . It was about a purported anatomical weakness if the fist was horizontal.
2. Suffice it to say your expriential observations are far different than mine. I have seen literaly thousands of forefist breaks with the grain and fist horizontal which is the full twist punch . Never saw an injured forearm due to structural weakness yet. Anyone else?
You`re right in that most of the breaking demos I`ve seen over the years used a horizontal punch and the vast majority were (thatnk God) injury free. But when we demo I`d also say that 95%+ of the time that break is done either punching straight ahead below shoulder height, or straight down at a stack of something with the body bent over and essentially using that same "below-the-shoulders-directly-in-front-of-the-torso" set up.
You almost never see someone punching down at an angle like a bladder punch, or slightly upwards like a head punch. That second situation (punching above horizontal) is where people tend to suggest that the vertical fist is a safer bet. But like you said, I don`t think I`ve ever seen what I would call a forearm injury from a poorly thrown punch. (Unless you count getting cut up when missing and putting your hand through a storm window.) The injuries I`ve seen were always to the wrist joint or the hand.