If Obama Loses, Blame His Policies, Not Racism

Big Don

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[h=2]If Obama Loses, Blame His Policies, Not Racism[/h] Ronald Bailey|Oct. 30, 2012 4:30 pm
Reason EXCERPT

Just 38 percent of Americans said that they would vote for a black presidential candidate back in 1958, which was the first time the Gallup Poll asked that question. Twenty years before that, only 33 percent said that they would vote for a woman; 46 percent for a Jew, and 60 percent for a Catholic. By 1958, 54 percent would support a woman candidate, 63 percent a Jewish one, and 67 percent a Catholic. Just two years later, the Catholic Democrat Sen. John F. Kennedy defeated Protestant Republican Vice-President Richard Nixon by just over 100,000 votes, a mere 0.1 percent of the popular vote. A good case can be made that Kennedy didn't even win the popular vote.
In June 2012, the Gallup Poll reported that 96 percent of Americans said that they would vote for a well-qualified black candidate nominated by their party; 95 percent would support a woman; 94 percent a Catholic; and 91 percent a Jewish candidate. In addition, 92 percent would vote for a Hispanic candidate; 68 percent for a gay or lesbian; 58 percent for a Muslim; and for the first time ever a majority (54 percent) of Americans said that they would vote for a well-qualified atheist. One particularly interesting Gallup finding in the context of the current election is that only 80 percent of Americans said that they would vote for a well-qualified Mormon. That is marginally up from 75 percent when the question was first asked in 1967. Less than half a century after America’s only Roman Catholic president had been elected, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama walloped his Republican opponent Sen. John McCain by 8.5 million votes and 7 percentage points.
Yet atavistic political tribalism hasn’t been completely vanquished. In 1960, nearly 80 percent of Roman Catholics voted for Kennedy even though they had split evenly between Democrat Adlai Stevenson and Republican Dwight Eisenhower in 1956. In 2008, 95 percent of African-American voters cast their ballots for Barack Obama. Nevertheless, the Gallup numbers - and results in elections - clearly demonstrate that ethnic and religious divisions have been fading away as a single American tribe has been forged. As the Gallup Poll notes, “Americans of all political party affiliations are nearly unanimous in saying they would vote for a black, female, Catholic, Hispanic, or Jewish president.” It really is true that an American of any ethnicity can grow up to become president.
<<SNIP>>

However, the Bradley Effect wasn't present in the 2008 presidential election. The October 2008 Washington Post ABC News poll reported that Obama was pulling 52 percent of the likely voters and he won the election with 52.9 percent. In other words, voters did not markedly lie to pollsters about their electoral preferences. In a 2009 study in The Journal of Politics, Georgetown University political scientist Daniel Hopkins surveyed data from 180 gubernatorial and Senate elections from 1989 to 2006 and found that the Bradley Effect essentially disappeared after the early 1990s. Why did it fade away? Hopkins suggests that it “declined to insignificance swiftly at about the time that welfare reform silenced one critical, racialized issue, and as crime’s national salience was declining.”
<<<SNIP>>>A week before the presidential election, the latest Washington Post ABC News tracking poll has former Gov. Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama by a single point, 49 to 48 percent. An earlier version of that same poll found that Obama has lost support among white voters compared to his first run in 2008. In 2008, Obama won with 52.9 percent of the vote by garnering 43 percent of the white vote and 80 percent of the non-white vote. The new poll reports that his support among white voters has dropped 6 points, to 37 percent.

So if Obama loses next Tuesday, will it be because of his race? The answer is no. American political tribalism continues to wane and Obama’s “racial cost” has only fallen since the 2008 election. It's true that in a contest this close, the small and dwindling portion of Americans motivated by ethnic or racial tribalism might well make a difference in the outcome. But it would be wrong to interpret the outcome as a return to the political tribalism of the past. If Obama loses it will be overwhelmingly because the majority of voters disliked his policies, not his race.
 

WC_lun

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I understand what you are pointing out with this article and it does holf some validity. however, i can remember readong two other studies within the last two week that indicate that racism is on the rise this last four years, not declining. It might be true that a large persentage of racist will not vote, but if they do, in such a close election, racist will have held considerable power in the outcome. It amazes me how many white authors pen pieces that extol the now post recist America, because obama was elected. If you listen to those that have been writing about the african American experience with racism, you'll see it is still a problem in our society. I do hope that if Romney wins, he wins by a comfortable enough margin that racism does not become a part of that discussion.
 
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Big Don

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I understand what you are pointing out with this article and it does holf some validity. however, i can remember readong two other studies within the last two week that indicate that racism is on the rise this last four years, not declining. It might be true that a large persentage of racist will not vote, but if they do, in such a close election, racist will have held considerable power in the outcome. It amazes me how many white authors pen pieces that extol the now post recist America, because obama was elected. If you listen to those that have been writing about the african American experience with racism, you'll see it is still a problem in our society. I do hope that if Romney wins, he wins by a comfortable enough margin that racism does not become a part of that discussion.
The problem with that, is that in 2008 and for the majority of his presidency, any opposition to Obama's policies has been portrayed as opposition to the man himself, and by extension, his race.
An aside:
Are you OK? You had a lot of typo's there and you don't normally.
 

WC_lun

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I do agree some view as any opposition to Obama as racism and that is ridiculous. If oppposition is stated by issues, that is part of our political process. However, racism and hate groups have risen in number since Mr Obama's election and to dismiss that as having no effect isn't entirely honest. I hope that the minority of vote that is based upon anything other than issues does not effect the end results.

Sorry about the typoes. Its the illness thing. I've got the double whammy of just taken some pain meds and a lowered oxygen count. At least I'm not talking about significant others with pretty green hair (they had blonde hair). :)
 

Carol

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Sorry to hear you are going through a rough spot WC :( Be sure to holla if there is anything I can do.


I don't think racism will be a factor. Also *dragging out my armchair here* I do not think that neither President Obama nor Governor Romney have run a winning campaign. Both have tried very hard to appeal to their base, when their base is already on board. I don't think Obama is at risk of winning Texas any more than Romney is at risk of winning New York.

The people who are going to be deciding this election are the independent/undecided/other voters in the swing states. Maybe I have an overly optimistic view of my fellow countrymen, but I don't think that many of these folks are racist. I think its much more likely that these folks don't care that Obama is black, don't care that Romney is a Mormon, they are not particularly enamored with either one and are rather sick of the media crush. Unfortunately tho, I do not think that will prevent an outcry of "racism" if President Obama does not win.
 

arnisador

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The black population is going strongly for Obama, and the white population is going strongly (but less so) for Romney. It's expected that Obama will win but without a white majority. C'est la vie in 2012.
 

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