Concession the day after

[deadhand31]

Ok, all politics aside, I would like to bring up a point simply for the purpose of discussion. I'm not talking about voting records, stances on issues, or who the person is. I'm talking solely about the concession decision.

As it is, in Ohio, there are estimated to be at the very least around 135,000 provisional ballots, with some talk of the number being over 175,000. What are these? These are ballots for those who show up at the polls without their name being on the roster. However, they feel they should be registered, and this provisional ballot is cast in the instance that they may actually be eligible. In the next 10 days after the election, these ballots are checked for legitimacy, and the legitimate ones are counted. The number of legitimate provisional votes has fluctuated in the past, but according to NBC news this morning, 90% of these provisional ballots were valid in the 2000 election.

So, here's the situation: Bush currently has around a 135,000 lead over Kerry in Ohio. Without Ohio, Kerry had no chance of victory whatsoever. To win Ohio on these provisional ballots, there are 2 neccessary conditions. 1. In a state that voted almost 50/50, he would need to win these ballots by a heavy sweep, if not unanimous; 2. There would need to be a VERY high legitimacy rate for these ballots, possibly higher than in 2000. Instead of extending the election for another 10 days, he chose to concede.

Now, here's the question: Given that it is highly unlikely that he would have won the number of these ballots that would have been neccessary, should he have conceded? Would it have been a better choice to wait it out those ten days, or maybe a portion of those 10 days, to see what the outcome would have been?

(Please let's stick to the issue at hand, and not turn this into a Bush or Kerry bash thread)

 

[loki09789]

Ok, all politics aside, I would like to bring up a point simply for the purpose of discussion. I'm not talking about voting records, stances on issues, or who the person is. I'm talking solely about the concession decision.

As it is, in Ohio, there are estimated to be at the very least around 135,000 provisional ballots, with some talk of the number being over 175,000. What are these? These are ballots for those who show up at the polls without their name being on the roster. However, they feel they should be registered, and this provisional ballot is cast in the instance that they may actually be eligible. In the next 10 days after the election, these ballots are checked for legitimacy, and the legitimate ones are counted. The number of legitimate provisional votes has fluctuated in the past, but according to NBC news this morning, 90% of these provisional ballots were valid in the 2000 election.

So, here's the situation: Bush currently has around a 135,000 lead over Kerry in Ohio. Without Ohio, Kerry had no chance of victory whatsoever. To win Ohio on these provisional ballots, there are 2 neccessary conditions. 1. In a state that voted almost 50/50, he would need to win these ballots by a heavy sweep, if not unanimous; 2. There would need to be a VERY high legitimacy rate for these ballots, possibly higher than last year's. Instead of extending the election for another 10 days, he chose to concede.

Now, here's the question: Given that it is highly unlikely that he would have won the number of these ballots that would have been neccessary, should he have conceded? Would it have been a better choice to wait it out those ten days, or maybe a portion of those 10 days, to see what the outcome would have been?

(Please let's stick to the issue at hand, and not turn this into a Bush or Kerry bash thread)

Nope, follow through. The fat lady hasn't sung yet, don't 'quit' publically (though in private you can have all the anxiety attacks you want ). That is what leaders do.

Even with a slim hope there is hope. If you concede too early, you might not see an opportunity to turn the tides (theoretically speaking on this point) simply because of the mentallity.

Kerry has done the good thing by making overtures about unification regardless of the outcome. Good character position to take.

 

[deadhand31]

Kerry has done the good thing by making overtures about unification regardless of the outcome. Good character position to take.

I agree wholeheartedly on this case. This election has divided the country in a very big way. For Kerry to state "We have to do something about that" instead of "You have to do something about that", shows that he is willing to work together with the other half of the political spectrum for the next 4 years. That is something I would very much like to see.

 

[Bob Hubbard]

The chance of a victory remains, yet is very slim. There are probably about a million uncounted votes right now nation wide. That is not enough to close the gap on the popular side. The Ohio vote could become a drawn out battle and generate similare 'division' as the 2000 Florida vote. Kerrys chances of picking up the needed votes there decrease and the odds aren't with him.

I believe he choose to take the honorable option and conceed gracefully, rather than put this country through another legal war like we saw in 2000.

This will allow us to turn our attention to dealing with the issues, rather than weeks of inertia.

 

[RandomPhantom700]

I know I sound like a cynic here, but I have to ask, deal with what issues? The selection's over with, and the religious zealot remains in office. Four more years of deception, ad hoc decisions, jingoism, etc.

 

[Tgace]

I think Kerry not wanting to put the nation through another 2000 debacle is honorable. He weighed the odds of victory against the damage another drawn out election would cause and did what he thought best.

 

[loki09789]

I know I sound like a cynic here, but I have to ask, deal with what issues? The selection's over with, and the religious zealot remains in office. Four more years of deception, ad hoc decisions, jingoism, etc.

Agree or disagree with the results, it does demonstrate that in voting, like many issues, it is a case of lead, follow or get out of the way.

People who supported their candidate voted in support if that candidate. The majority of voters per state decided which way the electoral points would go...

Action is an expression of conviction. Based on the vote, there are more active supporters among the Rep/Bush supporters. Either the Dems/Independents have to change the game plan or this will happen again and again.

I didn't vote 'against' anyone. I voted for a candidate. I think the 'anti-bush' attempts failed to work in this case because there just wasn't enough substance to the Kerry alternative IMO.

I am glad that Kerry, as a Senator, is being a team player and not rallying his supporters into more "anti bush" crap. It is time to move forward, Kerry even acknowledges that now.

 

[Xequat]

I think he did an honorable thing by not putting the country through another 2000 ordeal. I'm impressed; very classy speech, too. I would have been OK if he had come out and said that it looks nearly impossible that he could win, so he looks forward to working with the President in the Senate and he doesn't want to drag it out, but we should make sure that every vote counts and every vote is counted. So, I think it would have been OK if he had conceded under the provision that the outstanding votes were not overwhelmingly for him, but barring a miracle we could take this as a concession speech. That way, he concedes without looking like a sore loser, but still honoring the idea that every vote should be counted and leaving it open just in case.

Or can he still become President if all of the votes are for him. Since he gave his concession speech, even if he gets the votes, he's out anyway now, correct?

 

[Sapper6]

Or can he still become President if all of the votes are for him. Since he gave his concession speech, even if he gets the votes, he's out anyway now, correct?

George W. Bush will be the president for the next 4 years. even if Kerry did win the 3 remaining states, there's not enough electoral votes left to put him over the top. Kerry conceded because he knew the chance of waiting for the provision ballots in Ohio to come back in his favor was an impossible chance.

like it or not folks, GWB is still the prez.

did you guys happen to notice in GW's victory speech, he made reference that this was his last campaign, or did i hear that wrong?

 

[Flatlander]

did you guys happen to notice in GW's victory speech, he made reference that this was his last campaign, or did i hear that wrong?

A president can only serve 2 terms.

 

[Sapper6]

A president can only serve 2 terms.

**DOH**...i knew that.

damn i feel like a retard now :uhyeah:

 

[Flatlander]

**DOH**...i knew that.

damn i feel like a retard now :uhyeah:

Sometimes, it takes a Canadian. :uhyeah:

Seriously, though, the really good news to come out of Kerry's concession is that less public money goes to the lawyers! Can I get an A-MEN!

 

[Nightingale]

Even though he's conceded, Kerry could still become president. Ohio votes are still being counted, and if those votes turn the tide (which is numerically possible yet highly unlikely), those EC votes would still go to Kerry.

What Kerry's concession did is let the American people know that he's not going to drag them through a lengthy court battle. Once Ohio's decided, there will be no recounts.

 

[Phoenix44]

Well, I personally would have preferred that he wait until all the votes were counted, because people are still sore from the 2000 debacle. But he did say that the calculations they did determined that even WITH the provisionals and absentee ballots in Ohio, there would not be enough for him to bridge the gap. So the concession was not unreasonable.

I also thought it was a great concession speech, and I'm sorry he didn't win.

 

[Xequat]

Yeah, I think they said on the radio that Kerry would need upwards of 90% of the provisionals to go for him because there were something like 145K votes out and 135k difference. I forget exact numbers, but they should be easy to find out.


Thanks, Nightingale...that's what I was looking for. I wasn't sure if a concession was a total withdrawal or if it were still mathematically possible albeit highly improbable that he could win.

 

[Brother John]

Now, here's the question: Given that it is highly unlikely that he would have won the number of these ballots that would have been neccessary, should he have conceded? Would it have been a better choice to wait it out those ten days, or maybe a portion of those 10 days, to see what the outcome would have been?

(Please let's stick to the issue at hand, and not turn this into a Bush or Kerry bash thread)

No. It would have been a miracle for Sen. Kerry to have gotten the number of votes needed to obtain Ohio. It just wouldna happened.
He did the right thing by conceding! Let him bow out with a touch of class left. If he'd drawn it out in the courts or whathaveyou... would have made him look like a whinning baby.
Sorta like Gore.
It's important to learn from the mistakes of others.

Kerry ran a good campaign! Overall the biggest voter turn out in history, and Pres. Bush got the greatest single number of votes of ANY election in history!
It speaks well for both candidates, but I believe the best man won.

Your Brother
John

 

[Brother John]

I also thought it was a great concession speech, and I'm sorry he didn't win.

Well...
I sure do agree about the speech at least!! The man sure can deliver some words! Very tallented.

Your Brother
john

 

[Flatlander]

Bush got the greatest single number of votes of ANY election in history!

This was bound to happen, and will again, as populations continue to increase.

 

[Seig]

Even though he's conceded, Kerry could still become president. Ohio votes are still being counted, and if those votes turn the tide (which is numerically possible yet highly unlikely), those EC votes would still go to Kerry.

What Kerry's concession did is let the American people know that he's not going to drag them through a lengthy court battle. Once Ohio's decided, there will be no recounts.

Sorry Kris,
Concedeing is admitting you are going to lose and withdrawing. That was one of the underlying reasons that Al Gore did not win the legal battles, he admitted defeat and then changed his mind. While in theory Sen. Kerry could win the necessary votes, the state has been declared, and due to his concession, will not be changed, regardless of how the votes fall. A recount will not occur at all unless a candidate requests one.

 

[Seig]

This was bound to happen, and will again, as populations continue to increase.

It will only happen if the candidates can galvanize the voters into action like these two men did. The very fact that they got so many Americans to get off their collective asses and exercise their right to vote speaks very highly of both men.