Bureau of Justice Statistics (USA)

[Hawke]

US Dept of Justice
Bureau of Justice Statistics
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/welcome.html

You can see the crime trends.

 

[Sukerkin]

It is a statistical truth that what you choose to measure is more important than the accuracy with which you measure it.

However, that said, the majority of the charts I just looked at would suggest a situation in which things were improving quite markedly.

Why is it then that the impression I get from talking with you, my American friends, is quite the reverse?

 

[Empty Hands]

Why is it then that the impression I get from talking with you, my American friends, is quite the reverse?

This is not uncommon. It is a human tendency to view the past through the warm glow of nostalgia. Crime has been on a sharp downwards trend since the early nineties. Yet, everyone is petrified to let their children out of their sight for six femtoseconds when we used to not see them all damn day, when crime rates were higher.

Some of it is also the nature of the media. The media constantly reports sensational crimes without accompanying balancing statistics. Right before 9/11 we had the "Summer of the Shark" when every shark attack was being reported. Everyone thought there was an epidemic of attacks. Yet, shark attacks that summer were no higher than any other summer. Perception is reality.

This is also not a new phenomenon:

"The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they allow disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children now are tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.”
-Socrates by way of Plato

Crossing their legs?!?

 

[Sukerkin]

I largely agree, EH, indeed until recent years I have used the same argument myself when discoursing the perception of lawlessness and poor social behaviour with my father.

When I first took a sociology course as part of my first degree, I learned of this 'media lensing' effect wherein suddenly something that happens all the time is magnified to the pinnacle of importance - I've seen it myself on repeated occasions since.

This does not mean that in terms of the behaviour of minors we have not seen a decline. It also does not mean that the gathered statistics are not incorrect. In my own limited span I have seen things get much worse with my own eyes. So, not disputing the wisdom of Plato for an instant, to quote him in the current environment when children trully do hold the 'whip hand', to the doom of us all, is a bit skewing of the data when it comes to viewing the picture.

 

[Empty Hands]

This does not mean that in terms of the behaviour of minors we have not seen a decline.

That may be Sukerkin. I don't have the perspective or knowledge to say. I am suspicious though, just based on the fact that pretty much every generation thinks this way about the ones that come after. Of course, it can still be true sometimes.

What I can say though is that if our kids are worse behaved, it isn't spilling out into greater criminality. Youth crime rates have dropped along with all the rest, in the US. Maybe that is the problem, too many chavs in the UK is messing up your average. :lol2:

 

[jks9199]

Where to start...

Crime statistics are about as slippery as a kettle of fish, soaked in banana oil. If you note, on the page linked in the original post, there's also a link to the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports. The UCR is made up of statistics on crimes reported to police; many of the reports on the BJS page are victimization reports; they come from information reported by victims in surveys or other ways. You'll find the two don't tally exactly... For example, no victimization survey ever includes murder. (For some reason, murder victims just don't seem to answer many surveys!)

But surveys and statistical reports only paint part of the total "crime picture." Just as important -- or maybe even more important -- is how safe you feel in your home, in your job, and as you go about your daily business. No matter how low the crime numbers, if you don't feel safe, if you feel like there're crime problems, then there are. You'll live like that; you'll stay inside, you'll avoid businesses and locations... You'll live as if you're in a crime war zone.

Another important thing to consider is that there have been some major demographic and economic factors in the US over the last several years have contributed to downward trends in crime. Those factors are changing. The main population of offenders (males, 18 to 25 or so) is increasing. The economy is worsening. Times are getting tighter. We've got kids coming back from Iraq, Afghanistan, and other combat zones with more problems and more willingness to be violent; we're doing our best to help them before they get out -- but that doesn't mean they're all getting the help they need. Please note, I'm not suggesting every Middle East vet is a ticking time bomb a la the stereotypical Vietnam-era vet, merely noting that there will be those who, whether from PTSD or some other mental illness, or simple human greed and evilness, who will bring their combat experience to a life of crime.

We also have vastly increased awareness of crime, not only in our little neighborhood, but across the state and even the nation. We even hear about criminal activity from other parts of the world! More crime information is released, in more ways, than in the past, about even pretty minor offenses -- and we here about it. Neighborhood list serves, web groups, and activist groups are quick to point to every offense and circulate them... heightening the perception of crime.

So... what's this amount to? I don't know. I just go out, and do my job. I catch the bad guys I can, educate the public when I have an opportunity, and won't surrender my lifestyle to fears of crime. And I encourage everyone to do the same.

 

[Sukerkin]

What I can say though is that if our kids are worse behaved, it isn't spilling out into greater criminality. Youth crime rates have dropped along with all the rest, in the US. Maybe that is the problem, too many chavs in the UK is messing up your average. :lol2:

ROFL! That may well be so .