What is the report from the UK?

Discussion in 'General Martial Arts Talk' started by Invisibleflash, Jul 30, 2019.

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  1. kempodisciple

    kempodisciple MT Moderator Staff Member

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    Yup, like I said I'm not too interested in this discussion, so not going into the pdf (and multi-year stats would have to be over decades, which comes with it's own set of issues). Just wanted to correct that line of thinking, since it's a common one, and has the issue listed above.
     
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  2. dvcochran

    dvcochran Senior Master

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    You found at least one consistency our countries have I common.
     
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  3. pdg

    pdg Senior Master

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    I never said it was good or even exact from a science perspective, but just like per capita figures it's the best I can come up with for a random internet discussion.

    Those reasons are why you can't scale on a yearly basis, because a tiny variation scaled up becomes huge.

    But if you increase the sampling time to 5 or 10 years, those spikes (arsonist on tour, etc) become a far smaller problem.

    The 1mil town being allowed 250 one year or none the previous year or 4 the year before turns into 254 over a 3 year period.

    Of course, it messes up budgets ;)
     
  4. dvcochran

    dvcochran Senior Master

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    Yes, I am trying to hijack the thread. It got a little heavy.

    This why I love analytics. I could not convince our son control engineering is the second best kind of work in the world ;) next only to farming. :) But he is really good at analytics. He has written algorithms that are being used by several sports teams and schools to measure player performance and probability. He is down in Georgia at Shorter University and will soon be heading to Fordham University (in PA) to adapt their system to use his tools and will then spend the season working for the Eagles. Damn proud of our son.

    Like our discussion on crime, it is not difficult to find gross data and while there is a lot of quality data, it doesn't give you any quantitative data. In other words, you do not get the details in gross data and even if you did you do not know what it means.
     
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  5. pdg

    pdg Senior Master

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    @dvcochran - maybe just semantics, but I consider my manipulation of the data as closer to statistics than analytics.

    I'm not doing much of what I would call analysis...

    Using 'my' method, I am reaching conclusions that tally with my personal experiences and the reported experiences of people I know.

    It's entirely possible that my results are being somewhat led by this, but I'm happy to accept it anyway.

    If others are happy to accept it too (whether I've explained it well enough for them to have the same understanding as me or not) then great - if they don't want to accept it or want to disagree, that's great too. If they don't understand a bit and want clarification that's also great, as is whether they agree or not after that.

    I'm not trying to influence policy, or to influence individuals - I'm just sharing for my own fun.

    If that happens to make someone else think and reach their own conclusions, then that's better than great :)
     
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  6. dvcochran

    dvcochran Senior Master

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    You touched on one of the biggest drivers that caused the emergence of analytics; being led by the results in one ruleset.
    Statistical process control (SPC) is very commonly used in the manufacturing environment where the goal is to keep the process as narrow as possible to avoid deviation. It works great when you are making millions of the same widget, the same way, with the same materials and tools, all day every day. The quickest way to affect the in-control process is to add a human element. We are just way too elegant and unpredictable. By applying analytics you can find the factors that affect process and order them by magnitude so that you can weigh their effect.
    Getting the math down can get pretty heavy but it gives a much better picture of how things happen in the real world.
     
  7. pdg

    pdg Senior Master

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    Certainly, I understand the process and importance of analytics.

    The issue is it takes time and effort, and the more complex the data set the more complex the analysis has to be to make any sense.

    I don't have the time or motivation to go that deep, so I'm intentionally restricting myself to very basic statistical manipulation, which is providing results that I'm willing to accept as "good enough" for the task at hand.
     
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  8. jobo

    jobo Grandmaster

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    this seems to ignore poverty ! high density equals poor people, poor people equally poor education which competed the cycle of producing more poor people.

    general the lower the income in an area the higher the crime rate, if a moire affluent suburb has a high crime rate, its because it is geographic close to a poor area. rural area are not by definition geographic close to anything
     
  9. gpseymour

    gpseymour MT Moderator Staff Member

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    In some areas, the higher density actually has a higher average income, though probably that's because of outliers at both ends in the high-density areas. The stats don't ignore that - it's assumed that's one of the factors at play.
     
  10. jobo

    jobo Grandmaster

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    they ignore it totally, there no mention at all of per capita income, therefor any attempt to interpratate the data to mean that it's high density that causes crime is exceeding misleading, if you pack people who earn 6 figure incomes in to high density housing, they still are not going to be hunting in packs taking money of people at knife point, t?herefore any suggestion that it's population densityty rather than relative poverty that the main driver in most crime is ridicules
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2019
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  11. dvcochran

    dvcochran Senior Master

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    As soon as you to argue/factor for or against per capita income, or any other factor such as poverty it is no longer gross data.
     
  12. jobo

    jobo Grandmaster

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    ?? per capita income is GROSS data
     

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