The Casino Thread!

Discussion in 'The Rec Room (Sports and Entertainment)' started by mrhnau, Dec 24, 2007.

  1. MA-Caver

    MA-Caver Sr. Grandmaster

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    It's been a while since I've visited MT's casino... mainly because of the empty rooms ... if there are serious poker players here then we need to set up a regular time/day to meet and whom-ever shows up shows up... instead of the hit/miss that I've been getting everytime I go there. :idunno: unless there's a better idear.
     
  2. MBuzzy

    MBuzzy Grandmaster

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    I agree! Personally, I'm almost always home by 9 pm.
     
  3. Andrew Green

    Andrew Green Grandmaster

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    It does put a little box on the top of every page when there is someone in there, sometimes just going in and sitting there alone for 5 minutes is all it takes :)
     
  4. harlan

    harlan 2nd Black Belt

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    I note that the Casino tracks the top 10...winners, losers, richest, etc. It needs a new category. There is an underground movement afoot...to see who can GIVE AWAY the most. ;)
     
  5. thardey

    thardey Master Black Belt

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    Alright, I've got a challenge for the odds calculator out there.

    Generally speaking, "progressive betting" is a bad idea, particularly on even-odds betting against the house. (Which, of course isn't really "even")

    For those who haven't heard the term (I only know it thanks to the wizard of odds web site) You basically double the bet each time you lose. Eventually you'll win your money back. If you win, you keep it, and start counting over again.

    So, I'm getting addicted to roulette. Possibly because that's already bankrupted me once, and it gives the illusion that you can sort of control the odds. Especially since our board only has one zero, instead of two, which gives us better odds.

    I like covering 2/3rds of the table, which means that for every two dollars I risk, there's a 64.9% chance I'll win one dollar. I had won a couple hundred that way at the beginning, and then lost it all. It takes a while to gain, and you can lose fast on a bad run. Say you're betting 20 bucks a shot, it'll take 10 wins to gain 100, but only five losses to lose 100. So that's what happened.

    Then I was reading "Casino Royale" and I got an idea. Although I don't take Ian Flemming's advice on a lot of stuff, including his first choice of a .22 pistol for defense, or even the .32 ACP. It described him playing a "progressive system" covering 2/3rds of the table. So I gave it a shot, with modifications. So far I'm up over $200.

    Here's my thoughts, you can try it, or if you're math wizard, let me know how much of a fool I am.

    I'm not going to go for exact odds, but I'll round them out, not counting the zero, to keep them simple. So I'll use odds like 1/3, or 33%, instead of 12/37ths, or 32.4%, which is way more complicated.

    Say you start with $100
    First round:
    Bet 2 (1 on each 1/3rd) it doesn't matter which, as long as they don't overlap.
    If you win, you gain 1. Be happy, go back to one. ($101)
    If you lose, (odds are 33% against you) go to the second round --

    Second round:
    Bet 8 (4 on each 1/3rd)
    If you win, you gain 2, go back to round one with $102.
    If you lose, go to third round. Odds are 11% that you'll lose two in a row.

    Third round:
    Bet $30 ($15 on each 1/3rd)
    If you win, you gain $5 overall, go back to round one with $105.
    If you lose, go to the fourth round. Odds are 4% that you'll lose three in a row.

    Fourth round:
    Bet $100 - table max ($50 on each 1/3rd.)
    If you win, you gain $10 overall. Count yourself lucky, and start over with $110.
    If you lose, you're out $140, and hit the table max. You're on your own. (happened to me once, but I'm still up overall.) Odds are 1.2% (or roughly 1 in 81) that you'll loose all four rounds.

    Of course, each individual round always stays at 33% (roughly). But four in a row is pretty rare.

    The up side of the changes, is that you actually stand to gain after every time you lose, instead of simply breaking even, which will just sap your money in the long run.

    If it seems like betting $100 on one go is a lot, remember that you can lose $100 on four consecutive losses by betting $25.

    So far it's a fun way to play, but I'm not sure if I've just conned myself. What do you all think?
     
  6. terryl965

    terryl965 <center><font size="2"><B>Martial Talk Ultimate<BR

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    All I know is I need more cash and I'm the Ultimate Post whore around here. Give me money so I can loose it all again. I have lost more than anybody.
     
  7. Carol

    Carol Crazy like a...

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    OK my friend ;)
     
  8. terryl965

    terryl965 <center><font size="2"><B>Martial Talk Ultimate<BR

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    Thank you as always, see you in Buffalo
     
  9. Andrew Green

    Andrew Green Grandmaster

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    The technical term for it is the "Martingale" system

    Although you're uneccessarily complicating it. Generally it works best on even money bets, ex. betting on odd.

    Bet 1, if you win, you are up 1 (get back 2)
    Lose - Bet 2, if you win you get back 4, having bet 3
    Lose - Bet 4, if you win you get back 8, having bet 7
    Lose - Bet 8, if you win you get back 16, having bet 15
    etc.

    The downside is that eventually you are going to hit a losing streak that either puts you past the table limit, or bankrupts you. So it's a slow gain, but can lead to a quick fall


    Right now the table limit is 100, so some sample bet sequences are:
    1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 16 - 32 - 64
    3 - 6 - 12 - 24 - 48 - 100
    5 - 10 - 20 - 40 - 80
    7 - 14 - 28 - 56
    9 - 18 - 36 - 72

    Starting with each, the second number is how many loses in a row defeat you:
    1 - 7
    2 - 6
    3 - 6
    4 - 5
    5 - 5
    6 - 5
    7 - 4
    8 - 4
    9 - 4
    10 - 4

    Of course 4 in a row is pretty common, I think you'd want to at least have 5, if not 6 in a row before you bust to be fairly safe. But even then, it's only a matter of time before you do hit that.

    The same system can applied to other games where you have a even money bet, Blackjack for example is often played on that principle.
     
  10. Big Don

    Big Don Sr. Grandmaster

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    OK. WHO wants some? casino cash that is?
     
  11. thardey

    thardey Master Black Belt

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    4 in a row is pretty common in even bets. It's only 1/16, or about 6%. You would need to lose 6 in a row to get close to 1% at 1/64. That's why it usually busts you. When it does bust you, it busts you hard!

    So, 6 losses in a row at 1/2 (1.6%), or 4 losses in a row at 2/3 (1.2%). It works out about the same.

    Do you know of any type of martingale system using 2/3rds bets? (Thanks for the name, I had only seen the type that breaks you even) I had basically tried to vary the reward to the risk, based on a $100 limit.
     
  12. Andrew Green

    Andrew Green Grandmaster

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    Same basic strategy no matter what you are betting.

    1-12 - bet 2
    13 - 24 bet 2

    If I win on either I get back my 2, plus 4 for that.

    If I loose, I need to recover the 4 lost, plus win the 2 I would have won on the first spin. So I need to win 6, which means a bet of 3 & 3.

    And so on, making bets that if you win, recover all losses, plus the win you would have gotten from the initial bet.
     
  13. thardey

    thardey Master Black Belt

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    Gotcha, I wanted to make a little more complicated. I'm trying to re-coup the win I would have gotten from each successive bet, roughly. It makes it fun when you've lost a couple, but still stand to gain 5 or 10 overall.

    I think I'll tweak it, though, to see if I can make it exactly what I would have won. Should be fun. I think this will make it easier to start with a bet of 4 instead of two, which can get tedious.

    Of course it's not foolproof, but I would never bet on roulette with real money, anyway!

    Thanks for the help! I've always wanted to be better at figuring odds, this helps a lot.
     
  14. Andrew Green

    Andrew Green Grandmaster

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    The odd thing is, I've never even stepped inside a casino... But when you start writing casino games, you get forced to learn a little bit about betting odds ;)
     
  15. thardey

    thardey Master Black Belt

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    Yeah, I only play the $0.10 slots until I get a free drink. If I lost less than the cost of the drink, then I've won!

    Got any new games lined up for us?
     
  16. terryl965

    terryl965 <center><font size="2"><B>Martial Talk Ultimate<BR

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    You know how I get my money, it is by all those nice folks that send me money when I'm broke. Thank you all for supporting me when I needed it the most.
     
  17. thardey

    thardey Master Black Belt

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    Y'know, I was wondering how you got $4,000 in what, one weekend?
     
  18. terryl965

    terryl965 <center><font size="2"><B>Martial Talk Ultimate<BR

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    Oh I got 1,000 and won the rest I hit four of a kind twice lucky me. Now I have money to send to people that needed it.
     
  19. thardey

    thardey Master Black Belt

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    Keep the cash -- send me the luck!
     
  20. INDYFIGHTER

    INDYFIGHTER Purple Belt

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    Anyone been to any of the Casinos in Indiana to play No-limit hold'em? I went to Caesars a few weeks ago and had a blast (cause I did well :) ) but I'm curious about some of the other poker rooms in the state.123
     

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