Evaluating Risk

[Bill Mattocks]

If we were serious, we'd buy fire extinguishers and learn how to use them.

 

[pdg]

I have and I have - but I'm not sure of your point...

 

[jobo]

If we were serious, we'd buy fire extinguishers and learn how to use them.

well no, if you were evaluating risk, then you'd evaluated if you need fire extinguisher, what type and what size, and where !

people with home fire extinguisher s invariably have the wrong size the wrong type in the wrong place, a fact they only realisa e when they have a fire, and they would have been better advised to spend the time they have wasted on the fire extinguisher, evacuating themselves.

a strong parallel perhaps with their choice of ma ?

 

[pdg]

well no, if you were evaluating risk, then you'd evaluated if you need fire extinguisher, what type and what size, and where !

people with home fire extinguisher s invariably have the wrong size the wrong type in the wrong place, a fact they only realisa e when they have a fire, and they would have been better advised to spend the time they have wasted on the fire extinguisher, evacuating themselves.

a strong parallel perhaps with their choice of ma ?

This much is actually very true.

Personally, I have different types and sizes in different areas to suit the most likely fire risk, while taking into account secondary hazards (electricity, gas, liquid fuels, etc.) - but I know I'm in the very vast minority.

In most cases (excepting the smallest fires) an extinguisher should only be treated as an egress assistant - suppress any fire enough to safely get out. You're not going to be completely putting out even a mediocre house fire with your average 1 or 2 kilo extinguisher...

 

[jobo]

This much is actually very true.

Personally, I have different types and sizes in different areas to suit the most likely fire risk, while taking into account secondary hazards (electricity, gas, liquid fuels, etc.) - but I know I'm in the very vast minority.

In most cases (excepting the smallest fires) an extinguisher should only be treated as an egress assistant - suppress any fire enough to safely get out. You're not going to be completely putting out even a mediocre house fire with your average 1 or 2 kilo extinguisher...

agree, if you ha e anything less than a 9 litre your going tostruggle to put out anything more than a waste paper bin fire, and those disappear at a fright ing rate , if you can't extinguished the whole fire in less than circa 30 seconds your wasting your time,you need to catch the fire very early if your going to have any success at putting it out and people just won't have extinguisher that big. because they are very expensive and very ugly

 

[Bill Mattocks]

I have and I have - but I'm not sure of your point...

We talk about the chance that an attacker will use this or that technique, multiple attackers, weapons, and etc all as if we're rationally evaluating risk, when in reality fire and natural disasters are a much higher risk. But we discuss disarming techies for ak47 and butterfly knives and don't know how to put out a fire or get out of our own homes if it's smoke filled, let alone practice for those things.

 

[pdg]

We talk about the chance that an attacker will use this or that technique, multiple attackers, weapons, and etc all as if we're rationally evaluating risk, when in reality fire and natural disasters are a much higher risk. But we discuss disarming techies for ak47 and butterfly knives and don't know how to put out a fire or get out of our own homes if it's smoke filled, let alone practice for those things.

I did touch on this in another thread - about the balance of probability.

Fire is always a risk, so we've planned for it.

I have spare tyres in the cars, and I've 'trained' the wife on how to change a wheel (although it's most likely she'd phone me if she got a puncture...)

Natural disasters are really unlikely around here, so we're not 'prepped' - but stuff like powercuts happen so we have a generator and portable (camping) cooking/heating facilities.

There's almost zero possibility that I'll ever be confronted with a gun toting bad guy - so I'm perfectly happy to rely on the slight edge I may gain by knowing things like how guns work.

Knives are a slightly higher probability - but statistically I'm still much more likely to get run over by a bus. To that end I've spent more time developing roadcraft than knife disarms - and if it were ever to happen I'd have to rely on the element of surprise afforded by attacking while they're in the threat phase.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

I did touch on this in another thread - about the balance of probability.

Fire is always a risk, so we've planned for it.

I have spare tyres in the cars, and I've 'trained' the wife on how to change a wheel (although it's most likely she'd phone me if she got a puncture...)

Natural disasters are really unlikely around here, so we're not 'prepped' - but stuff like powercuts happen so we have a generator and portable (camping) cooking/heating facilities.

There's almost zero possibility that I'll ever be confronted with a gun toting bad guy - so I'm perfectly happy to rely on the slight edge I may gain by knowing things like how guns work.

Knives are a slightly higher probability - but statistically I'm still much more likely to get run over by a bus. To that end I've spent more time developing roadcraft than knife disarms - and if it were ever to happen I'd have to rely on the element of surprise afforded by attacking while they're in the threat phase.

All good. You are in the minority. As to the natural disasters, look about you, the world is changing. Stuff happens.

 

[punisher73]

Back when I still taught, I would have all of the students create a "fire plan" of what to do in case of fire, where the family meeting spot was etc. I think that if you say you teach "self-defense" then you need to cover all dangers (within reason....always the "what if 20 ninjas jump out of the tree at you") that a person is likely to face. In Michigan, I covered tornados since that is a strong possibility...earthquakes, not at all as a risk.

 

[dvcochran]

If we were serious, we'd buy fire extinguishers and learn how to use them.

Have one on both balers, two tractors, I think 4 in the shop and main barn and I think 6 in the fabrication shop. We are required to have sprinklers in one area.

I know that is not specifically what the reference is about. And I agree, but not to the point that is dictates life. Be smart, plan, and have fun. The rest is just fluff.


EDIT: There are two extinguishers at both Dojangs. Per OSHA and NFPA guidelines we have escape routes posted where necessary. Exists have lit signs. We do not practice collective escape plans but do discuss it in BB meetings.

 

[jobo]

All good. You are in the minority. As to the natural disasters, look about you, the world is changing. Stuff happens.

not in Manchester England it doesn't, a bit of a strong wind and maybe a couple of foot of flooding and i live on top of a very big hill. there is an " earth quake " fault, the last quake shook two books of a shelf in my house and caused 300 quids worth of damage a cross the whole city .

i mean really don't live in an earth quake,, hurricane or forest fire zone and your fine, basically don't buy a house in the Hollywood hills or new Orleans oh and avoiding volcanos, may also be prudent and don't go twister watching, that's my advice for avoiding natural disasters

 

[dvcochran]

This much is actually very true.

Personally, I have different types and sizes in different areas to suit the most likely fire risk, while taking into account secondary hazards (electricity, gas, liquid fuels, etc.) - but I know I'm in the very vast minority.

In most cases (excepting the smallest fires) an extinguisher should only be treated as an egress assistant - suppress any fire enough to safely get out. You're not going to be completely putting out even a mediocre house fire with your average 1 or 2 kilo extinguisher...

I learned this through experience. We used to carry regular ABC extinguishers on the balers. Had a bearing go out and caught the bale on fire. The ABC's did absolutely nothing to slow the burn. Lost the baler but saved the tractor. Now we carry compressed water extinguishers. They work, we know from experience. Some years later had a near identical event where a bad bearing caught the bale on fire. This time I opened the tail gate and extinguished the bale enough to eject it from the baler with little damage to the baler beyond what the bearing did on its own.
If you have never seen it, it is scary what a burning bale will do if you try to put it out. Start trying to peel the layers back to get to the source of the fire and the sudden input of air to the flame is like lighting a blow torch. Better to leave it be if an option.

 

[pdg]

All good. You are in the minority. As to the natural disasters, look about you, the world is changing. Stuff happens.

Not denying it happens, just that the chances of anything serious happening around here in the way of natural disasters are so slim that I might as well train to defend myself against multiple rabid polar bears armed with AK47s and katanas.

 

[pdg]

If you have never seen it, it is scary what a burning bale will do if you try to put it out.

I grew up and still live in a farming area, I've seen whole barns full of bales go up.

Best plan is usually to keep the surrounding area doused until it burns itself out - or more aptly in our personal cases, keep well out of the way...

 

[Buka]

I train fighting, live with my ex-wife in a small house on the slope of a volcano, where I smoke cigars and work as a cop.

Risk, schmisk.

 

[drop bear]

We talk about the chance that an attacker will use this or that technique, multiple attackers, weapons, and etc all as if we're rationally evaluating risk, when in reality fire and natural disasters are a much higher risk. But we discuss disarming techies for ak47 and butterfly knives and don't know how to put out a fire or get out of our own homes if it's smoke filled, let alone practice for those things.

Self defense weapons are over represented in self defense discussions.

You just don't get the same enthusiasm in a which door locks for home invasion discussion.

 

[drop bear]

I train fighting, live with my ex-wife in a small house on the slope of a volcano, where I smoke cigars and work as a cop.

Risk, schmisk.

Wow. You live with your ex wife?

 

[Gweilo]

Situational awareness.

 

[CB Jones]

I train fighting, live with my ex-wife in a small house on the slope of a volcano, where I smoke cigars and work as a cop.

Risk, schmisk.

@Buka doesnt always takes risks but when he does he drinks Dos Equis.....

 

[Kung Fu Wang]

Wow. You live with your ex wife?

The old clothes is always more comfortable than the new clothes. One time I made someone mad big time by saying that her father just married to her mother.