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North Korea Launches ICBM
- Thread starter Cryozombie
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In the last few months I have seen a few shows on North Korea.
One show stated that the North Koreans teach their young that they defeated the USA in the Korean Conflict and that the USA was and is afraid of their superior fire power.
Another show was a video that was someone who sneaked out of NK and it showed people living in total poverty with very poor if any sanitary conditions.
From what I have seen it looks to me that one of the last Communist countries that is still behind a curtain is trying to keep up the government run industries, and keep the people in line and give them hope and something to believe in and have pride in.
In the end this makes for a very scary fanatical condition where someone who has really nothing to loose and everything to gain, can start to play with the big boys (* USA/Russia/China&other Nuclear powers *).
The article linked by John stats that they most likely have not been able to develop a nuclear weapon small enough to fit into their missle. What of all those that are missing from the Fall of the old U.S.S.R?
So even if they can not launch to hit the America Continent(s) the rest of the region is in terrible danger who do have the capability of making some launches.
One show stated that the North Koreans teach their young that they defeated the USA in the Korean Conflict and that the USA was and is afraid of their superior fire power.
Another show was a video that was someone who sneaked out of NK and it showed people living in total poverty with very poor if any sanitary conditions.
From what I have seen it looks to me that one of the last Communist countries that is still behind a curtain is trying to keep up the government run industries, and keep the people in line and give them hope and something to believe in and have pride in.
In the end this makes for a very scary fanatical condition where someone who has really nothing to loose and everything to gain, can start to play with the big boys (* USA/Russia/China&other Nuclear powers *).
The article linked by John stats that they most likely have not been able to develop a nuclear weapon small enough to fit into their missle. What of all those that are missing from the Fall of the old U.S.S.R?
So even if they can not launch to hit the America Continent(s) the rest of the region is in terrible danger who do have the capability of making some launches.
Rich Parsons said:
Except that according to the news in Japan as I write, there is no mention at all in any North Korean media that there was a missle test. And they just launched another one!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060705/ap_on_re_as/japan_nkorea_missiles
From where I sit, it looks like something for outside audiences rather than an internal thing.
I think that the North Koreans just gave the guy the Chinese least want to succeed the current Japanese prime minister an assured victory in Fall. China had wanted a more 'moderate' guy instead of a guy named Abe who has gone to that shrine that has some war criminals enshrined. They have tried making a big show of who they want and placing direct pressure on the country involved before. In the case of Taiwan and the missle tests they did, the results backfired and they don't seem to have learned the lesson.
In this case, everyone here in Japan seems to expect this thing to go to the security council and the Chinese to scuttle any chance of sanctions. It is noteworthy that it is Japan and not America that is talking about sanctions. When the Chinese shoot down any punishment for tossing missles into Japanese waters as being not worthy of mention despite making a stink about where a Japanese prime minister prays, then the Japanese will tell them to take a hike.
Oh, and North Korea gets a lot of hard currency from ethnic North Koreans living in Japan. Many gambling profits from pachinko parlors get remitted to North Korea. The goverment has talked about shutting that down. I think it is close to a slam dunk now. Oh, and the police in Japan are not the most effective folks, but they get the job done with little restraint on their bahavior. If they even suspect a parlor owned by a Korean (a lot!!) is a source of cash for North Korea I would not be surprised if it was closed for a long time as various investigations go on. They probably won't even try to hide their targeting a specific ethnic group.
North Korea is not the most liked country here. A few years ago they signed a pact with Japan and agreed to not test any more missles. They also said they would not develop nukes and seem to be denying the messages low level goverment types have sent that they have developed them. But this test is not something they can try to apply a legal fiction to. The Japanese have been mad about the folks North Korea kidnapped and continue to lie about. This thing gave the politicians some legal cover to take harsher measures.
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Don Roley said:
Yes, Japan has serious cause for concern here. North Korea is, in effect, a doomsday cult, IMO, and they CAN hit Japan with the missiles they have. Given that the vast majority of Japanese living today were born after the Second World War and the atrocities of the Japanese Empire were committed (largely in China where their behavior was as brutal as was the Nazi's in Eastern Europe, particularly in Poland and the former Soviet Union), I think that Japan seriously needs to consider a serious re-armament.
Jonathan Randall said:
Which China really does not want. But thanks to their shielding North Korea, it may become a reality.
Oh, and I should mention that North Korea has said that if Japan imposes any types of sanctions, like the ban against remitances I said were pretty much a slam dunk, they would consider it an act of war.
So when North Korea starts talking about war against Japan for them merely not letting money be sent there, will China support them still?
China has been trying to build itself up by using their political power in the area over this matter. If it turns out that they can't do much of anything in regards to North Korea, then it may turn on them.
FearlessFreep
Senior Master
I'm not sure on the details but Japan's constitution disallows re-armament in any serious or offensive manner.
China is N.Korea's only serious trading partner and they problem have the chance for the most political/diplomatic pull with the N.Korean govt. My understanding is that is that China is seriously not happy about all this.
China is N.Korea's only serious trading partner and they problem have the chance for the most political/diplomatic pull with the N.Korean govt. My understanding is that is that China is seriously not happy about all this.
Stan
Green Belt
FearlessFreep said:
Then they should just amend their constitution. A country with the economy and technology of Japan would have no problem becomming a first rate military power within ten years. Imagine "the Lexus of jet fighters", "the Sony of tanks". Japanese cutting-edge quality at its most deadly.
Japan has the ability to change it's constitution if the political will is there.
China is the big partner for North Korea, but South Korea is also becoming big.
But no one seems to expect that China would let anything really bad happen to them. In fact, every time something like this happens they are the first to try to say that we should give them more of what they want. Japan's act to ban remitance of funds can be done on its own and I bet it will happen if China yet again lets North Korea off the hook. They have already cut off a ferry service that linked the two countries.
China is the big partner for North Korea, but South Korea is also becoming big.
But no one seems to expect that China would let anything really bad happen to them. In fact, every time something like this happens they are the first to try to say that we should give them more of what they want. Japan's act to ban remitance of funds can be done on its own and I bet it will happen if China yet again lets North Korea off the hook. They have already cut off a ferry service that linked the two countries.
Don Roley said:
Don,
If they were a success then I could have imagined them being listed as a success to the locals say in about a week or so once the propaganda committee has worded it just right to have the right connotation to get the best response out ot the people.
Even by continuing they can say we have nto informed our people until the tests were complete. :rollseyes:
As to Japan, it is a very serious thing as well as South Korean which I have some work associates who are from.
The Japanese Constitution can be admended and has been for the initial intent was that they were to have no military force above local and not to exceed 2% GNP. (* Don check me on this for I am going from memory about WWII and that was 20+ years ago, and my apologies if I am way off *). The Japanes Navy today is quite accomplished they have some of the best mine fniding equipement as well as retrieval and disarmament out there. They are the ones called in to assist the USA when those specialities are required. Or at least so the History Channel stated in a show a couple of years ago.
Drop a missle, armed or not, on Japan Proper or in the Pacific just off their coast line and watch how fast the Japanese DIET changes their constitution to allow for military development. Also look at all their workers who already work long hours (* My experience while I was there for a couple of short visits *), that would have no problem building new tanks, missiles, planes, or what have you.
It is very serious. If they can develop a rocket that is capable of going to Alaska then it can also get anywhere in China and also India and Pakastan. This is not going to be pretty.
Blotan Hunka
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I think the N Korean technological capabilities have been vastly overrated lately but they may get lucky enough to get in one good shot before being wiped off the map.
I think sanctions are inevitable.
I think sanctions are inevitable.
Blotan Hunka
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Bet Regans "Star Wars" program doesn't seem so funny now huh?
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Blotan Hunka said:
Having worked with some of the people who worked on it and seen the data, yes , it does.
elder999 said:
SHHHH!
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elder999 said:
hey, it has a 50% success rate.
Right now China is in no shape fiancially to fight a war even a small one. Any damages sustained on their part will be costly to their economy and they got other things to do... i.e. prevent their communist idealism to go the same route as the country formerly known as the Soviet Union.Don Roley said:
Most likely they'll tell No. Korea to knock off the prick waving and get back to running their communism like they should.
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Technopunk said:hey, it has a 50% success rate.
[50% in 2003. The test data on the most recent incarnation (at least that I can post here):
Intercept tests since 1999-results :3 misses, over 37% failure rate, and only 50% successful in FY 2003.
Tests used surrogate/prototype components-there were no production units available (which means the ones deployed have never been tested as-built.)
Unrealistic test conditions: Single target with locating beacon (!), scripted events, decoys, limits, etc.
Several critical technologies not tested before deployment.
Critical components missing: X-band radar, tracking satellites, airborne lasers, etc.
Inadequately tested components: Cobra Dane radar, 3-stage boosters, AEGIS and CP3.OE software, etc.
Ten years ago—under pressure from the Republican-controlled Congress—President Clinton began to develop a system that would launch interceptors from the ground to destroy incoming warheads through the force of impact. In July 2000, the Clinton administration decided not to begin deploying this system, admitting that the technology was still not ready and that the system would be vulnerable to even simple countermeasures such as decoys (a vulnerability UCS highlighted in the April 2000 report Countermeasures).
The Bush administration reversed that decision in December 2002, pledging to put 10 interceptors in Alaska (with 4 currently deployed in Alaska) and California silos. What changed between July 2000 and December 2002 was not the state of the technology, but the political determination to deploy something, regardless of its ability to intercept missiles.
Thomas Christie, the head of the Pentagon's testing office, wrote in January, 2005 that there were not enough test data to assess the effectiveness of the system planned for deployment. As analyses of all the missile defense tests to date show, the tests have been highly artificial and offer no justification for deployment. Moreover, since making its deployment decision, the Bush administration canceled the tests scheduled to take place before deployment.
Not only is the Bush system a significantly scaled-down version of the Clinton system, it also lacks a key component: the X-band radar intended to track incoming warheads and help guide the interceptors to their targets. Christie's predecessor at the Pentagon, Philip Coyle, wrote recently that the "system to be deployed in 2004 will not have the major elements needed to be operationally effective and would appear to be just for show."
When pressed on technical issues, administration officials acknowledge the system's ineffectiveness, but argue that the system will gradually improve over time. Yet, in March 2003, a high-level Pentagon official testified to Congress that, "the effectiveness would be in the 90 percent range."
Such a contradictory statement, based on incomplete facts, is unjustified and irresponsible, yet missile defense proponents in the administration who have no technical expertise—including the president and many of his advisors—may well believe these faulty claims. To the extent they do, U.S. security policy could be severely compromised. The president may, for example, be less inclined to pursue diplomatic means of dealing with North Korean missiles if he mistakenly believes (or wants to believe or what? The man's got issues.) the U.S. missile defense system can stop them in flight
I grew up in the age of “Duck and Cover.” We used to have drills in school where we’d cower under our desks or in the hall up against the wall with a jacket over our head, in anticipation of the Russkies dropping the “big one.” I was a rather precocious kid (well, I was a brat!), and during one of these drills couldn’t help but look down the hall at all those little butts up in the air along the wall. My 3rd grade teacher, Mrs. Bartholemew, who was 6 months pregnant at the time, told me to put my head down, to which I replied,“Mrs. Bartholemew, this will make absolutely no difference-the bomb will burn us all up at 10 million degrees." (I said I was a brat.) Mrs. Bartholemew told me to put my head down anyway, and proceeded to cry-a lot. As a kid, I was somewhat obsessed with the bomb (scared witless!) and atomic energy (fascinated);I grew up near a nuke plant, where I later wound up working. You can’t imagine how often I’m struck by the irony of where I work now, and what I (sometimes) work with.
Of course, “Duck and Cover” might work-I know enough about nuclear effects to recognize the part that yield and topography-to name only two factors-can have on survival of a nuclear event. Examination of the survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki reveals a wide variation in these terms for those who survived, and the degree to which they were injured. Compared to being fried to dust in seconds, though, I’d hardly call some of them “lucky.”
For those of you who care to see how silly things were,look:
http://www.archive.org/movies/detai...lectionid=19069
It’s quite hilarious, now.:lol:
Missile defense, is, for now, the equivalent of “Duck and Cover,” in many ways. Sure, the thing might get lucky, but odds are-by all the accounts I’ve seen from the principal players involved (actually dated someone who works directly on the missiles themselves)-way against it. It has been, so far, a profound waste of money, with no testing success that points towards operational readiness whatsoever. Deploying it at this time was foolhardy and short-sighted, as it isn’t even a complete system capable of functioning on the merest of baselines. Of course, I tend to think of it as an economic bailout for Boeing.........[/FONT]
Xue Sheng
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MA-Caver said:
China is very far from the financial chaos of Russia actually they are rather prosperous. Also they do not dole out money like the US does within strict budgets. And to be honest the Government and the Military come first...always.
Most unfortunately or fortunately whatever the case may be, China is very capable of fighting a rather large war. There military is very large, very modern and growing all of the time.
However the Government is somewhat concerned about the possibility of a strong general within the Military, this is why Generals a usually rotated every 6 months (that mandate of heaven thing has them a bit nervous)
And yes it certainly would put a damper on the Communist/Capitalist Society/Nation they are trying to build. But if they felt for one minute North Korea was a threat to them they would very likely put an end to it.
It may take the rest of us with it, but they would end it, and rather decisively. But it certainly would make the whole Communist party look rather bad if it rolled over another Communist Nation.
There is no great friendship between the 2 countries and without China North Korea is lost. But if it can get a viable Nuke program then it becomes a different thing all together.
It is definitely something to watch and be very worried about if for no other reason than North Korea is run by a crazy person.
Blotan Hunka
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Missile defense system?? Thats impossible! Whats next, man being able to fly or land on the moon??
My point was that the idea is a good one and with a national will to make one work perhaps we may get one.
My point was that the idea is a good one and with a national will to make one work perhaps we may get one.
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Blotan Hunka said:
Well, it is and it isn't a good idea-in some ways it's a bad idea, but that's for another thread. National will has nothing to do with accomplishing it, though-the science and engineering just aren't there yet, and won't be solved-especially with the budgetary cutbacks imposed by the Bush administration. It's not going to happen soon, and any money spent on deploying it (as we have) is wasted.
