Likelyhood of a trained attacker

[thetruth]

Honestly what do you guys think the likely hood is of being attacked in the street by some one trained in the arts?

Cheers
Sam:asian:

 

[Shotgun Buddha]

Likely enough to run into someone who knows a bit of boxing, which means you have your hands full. Boxing is pretty dangerous.
Training is not the problem.
If someone is attacking you, its because they feel they have an advantage.
Either
1. They've a few buddys with them
2. They've a weapon on them
3. They've been in enough scraps that they can fight anyway.
4. They're drunk or drugged up enough to think they're invincible.

Three and half of those are always bad news, and the other one where they're drunk could go either way.

 

[tshadowchaser]

so many people study these days I think that an attacker may have studied some. It might only have been a short time or from a friend who had studied but many would be attackers have some experience these days IMHO.
Do you consider the fighting that is done in gangs or the sparing that is done among friends to be martial training or are you referring only to those that go to a open martial arts school and pay for their training

 

[Shotgun Buddha]

so many people study these days I think that an attacker may have studied some. It might only have been a short time or from a friend who had studied but many would be attackers have some experience these days IMHO.
Do you consider the fighting that is done in gangs or the sparing that is done among friends to be martial training or are you referring only to those that go to a open martial arts school and pay for their training

I'd say brawlers are more likely than actually trained. But brawlers are a problem all on their own.

 

[Cirdan]

Every other person seem to have a yellow belt in art x nowdays so it is as likely as not getting attacked by one if it is random violence in the cab line or whatever. Persons who have trained hard and reached higher levels of skill are far fewer and in most cases very focused individuals. As such they pick their fights carefully and those of violent or criminal nature are probably more likely to rob a bank than engage in street violence.

 

[SFC JeffJ]

Remember, if someone commits a crime, the chances are they have been in the prison system where the criminals there do train. So I say the likelihood is very high.

 

[MJS]

Honestly what do you guys think the likely hood is of being attacked in the street by some one trained in the arts?

Cheers
Sam:asian:

I don't think that the majority of people you'll face will be on the level of a pro fighter, but we shouldn't assume that they're unskilled. This isn't to say that the guy didn't attend a MA school at some time, but I'd say the majority of their skill will be what they've picked up from the streets.

Train for the worst case scenario, train hard, train with realism and aliveness. The arts don't make us Supermen, but they will give us an advantage.

Mike

 

[Lisa]

Moderator Note:

Thread moved to General Self Defense to promote more responses.

Lisa Deneka
MartialTalk Super Moderator

 

[exile]

Every other person seem to have a yellow belt in art x nowdays so it is as likely as not getting attacked by one if it is random violence in the cab line or whatever. Persons who have trained hard and reached higher levels of skill are far fewer and in most cases very focused individuals. As such they pick their fights carefully and those of violent or criminal nature are probably more likely to rob a bank than engage in street violence.

I don't think that the majority of people you'll face will be on the level of a pro fighter, but we shouldn't assume that they're unskilled. This isn't to say that the guy didn't attend a MA school at some time, but I'd say the majority of their skill will be what they've picked up from the streets.

Train for the worst case scenario, train hard, train with realism and aliveness. The arts don't make us Supermen, but they will give us an advantage.

Mike

I think Mike and Cirdan have closed in on the essential here. Whatever you're doing when you deal with someone like this, it won't be one-step sparring or standard kumite or whatever. The odds are, you're going to be facing one of a few most-common start-off moves—what Bill Burgar calls HAOVs (habitual acts of violence)—and it makes most sense, on a statistical basis, to prepare for them: roundhouses, groin grabs or kicks, eye strikes, head butts, with various grabs to immobilize you as part of setting up the attack. The percentage of trained attackers out there is almost certainly way, way less than the number of untrained attackers, and even guys who've gotten through a belt level in the MAs are probably going to rely on what they've found works on untrained (and physically intimidated) victims. Given the numbers, that's probably what you'd better prepare for.

The guy I worry about, and prepare for accordingly, is the guy with a tire iron hanging around behind a pillar or stairwell at 9:30 or so at night in a parking garage. I'm far more likely to be facing him than another high colored belt in TKD or karate confronting me with empty hands...

 

[The Kidd]

Small percentage, they are going to attack faast and rely on the element of suprise because that is what has worked for them before.

 

[MarkBarlow]

Experience counts for a lot. The odds that this is the first time you've been assaulted will be fairly high while the chance that you are the first person the attacker has ever assaulted is slim. They'll have more experience in attacking than you'll have in defending.

Whatever training you've had in the Dojo, regardless of how realistic, will not fully prepare you for fear/surprise/off balance of a determined attack.

 

[bushidomartialarts]

as mark mentioned, trained -- not so much. experienced? yes indeed.

very little mat time, as you and i experience it, but lots of practice punching and kicking people (and stabbing or clobbering with a blunt instrument) under exactly the same circumstances they hope to start beating on you.

that's why i recommend avoidance as your first and second (at least) lines of defense.

 

[Kage-Ronin]

Howdy,

IMNSHO probably at 30%, if we are useing a 100% range of scale. The reason being is because you used to not be able to throw a stick without hitting someone who did TKD at some point.
With MMA, NHB, and such being as popular as they are in most circles today, it is fast becomeing that way again only with {insert art of choice here, with emphasis on BJJ,GJJ,Submission Wrestleing, Striking}
I would say 7-8% of that 30% (and it may be higher) may possibly be a ranked practicioner.

Just my .02

 

[Robert Lee]

Maybe not trained But if attacked The person could have a decent fighting concept. And nowdays a baserball bat or something. Plus the old 2 or 3 people attacking you at a time. But most often as we age we have much less encounters which thats good.

 

[Ninjamom]

I think it will be unlikely to meet someone who has trained well in any traditional MA, the reason being that real training takes discipline and hard work, and your average street thug isn't interested in either.

That being said, the real problem is, as MJS and Shotgun Buddha pointed out, facing someone with experience in fights. Taking both together, it means you are not likely to be attacked in a way you are used to seeing other students of your art use in sparring, but you are likely to face someone with experience in dirty, physical techniques that work.

 

[shesulsa]

Anybody ever see "Taxi Driver" with Robert DeNiro? :uhyeah:

While there may be some who actually physically train, there are far more who mentally train - and they're just as dangerous.

People who are making a life of crime spend time thinking things through - they have a plan, they have a backup plan, they talk about victimization, effective control of a victim, practice moves, etcetera.

 

[JBrainard]

IMNSHO probably at 30%, if we are useing a 100% range of scale. The reason being is because you used to not be able to throw a stick without hitting someone who did TKD at some point.
With MMA, NHB, and such being as popular as they are in most circles today, it is fast becomeing that way again only with {insert art of choice here, with emphasis on BJJ,GJJ,Submission Wrestleing, Striking}
I would say 7-8% of that 30% (and it may be higher) may possibly be a ranked practicioner.

This is probably somewhat accurate. Plus add in that an "attacker" has most definitely been in a lot of scraps before they encounter you. PLUS, add in that if they survivied a lot of jail time then they are probably very skilled at brawling/streetfighting. I read somewhere, and it makes sense, that you will find the best knife fighters in the prison system.
So, unless you are in a bar and a drunk idiot throws a weak punch at you, any attack on you is going to have considerable experience/skill behind it.
That's what I think, at least.

 

[Kage-Ronin]

I read somewhere, and it makes sense, that you will find the best knife fighters in the prison system.

You and I must read the same stuff! I have read that before myself.

 

[Rich Parsons]

Anybody ever see "Taxi Driver" with Robert DeNiro? :uhyeah:

While there may be some who actually physically train, there are far more who mentally train - and they're just as dangerous.

People who are making a life of crime spend time thinking things through - they have a plan, they have a backup plan, they talk about victimization, effective control of a victim, practice moves, etcetera.

This is very true. They plan and they have a plan to execute with a back up plan. They know when to leave, they know when to attack to their advantages. The mental is so important that the best physical skill set with no mental capabilities will not fair well in my experience or in my predictions.

 

[still learning]

Hello, Remember (bad guys) they are not stupid to go against someone who they feel has an advantage over them. They will always fight the weak and innocent, Or use a knife,gun,club or anything to give them an edge.

2. Most street punks...know very well what works on the streets. Experience is the BEST training. Plus they have done it more than once, where you...do not have the mental skills (adrenaline response) to prepare quickly. Well most of us do not have the proper training for the REAL WORLD...alone againist the bad guys, on the streets somewhere?

3. Expect the worst, anything goes style of fighting,people joining in from the sides,back, expect stones to be thrown at you.

4.BE smart...alway try to escape and get out of there as FAST as you can....only a fool stays around. Also revenge should be expected later on from the attacker.....WATCH YOUR Back!

5.Our best weapons are: Awareness,Humbleness, and our legs (run)