Clark Kent
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03-27-2010 03:45 PM:
The UFC put together a nice card with high drama at the back end. The undercard for UFC 111 tonight in Newark is dotted with some solid underdogs. We'll break things down from a "betting" perspective. This isn't necessarily who is going to win the fight but which side possesses the most betting value in each fight. It's easy to say Georges St. Pierre will crush Dan Hardy. It's another to bet GSP and back up your confidence with say ... $60,000 to win $5,000.
UFC 111 betting odds (Courtesy Venetian Hotel Resort Casino):
Official plays in bold
Dan Hardy (+700) v. Georges St. Pierre (-1200) - UFC Welterweight title
It's hard to read Hardy. Some media folks think his confidence and talking is all a coverup. I like it and think he has confidence going into the fight. We'll find out if he can defend the takedown against GSP. Recently, even NCAA wrestlers haven't been able to avoid St. Pierre's MMA takedowns. Hardy has to be ultra active on his feet and moving at all times. GSP should win the fight and should win easily but unless you've got $12,000-plus to wager and you can afford to lose, why bother betting on him? A small wager on Hardy results in a big payoff and a reason to root for the underdog.
PICK: HARDY +700
Shane Carwin (+110) v. Frank Mir (-140) - UFC interim heavyweight title
I started off liking Mir to win the fight and nothing in the last couple of weeks has changed my mind. Carwin has one mode and that's power. Mir knows that and will do his best to avoid a wrestling match. He's worked on the techinical flaws that did him in against Brock Lesnar. The keys are staying on the move and in the middle of the cage. Carwin is a gigantic guy and we still have little idea if he's got strong cardio. Mir will try to outbox Carwin, he just needs to be very careful in doing so.
PICK: MIR -140
Jon Fitch (-400) v. Ben Saunders (+300) - Welterweight
This can be an interesting fight if Fitch chooses to show off his well-roundedness or Saunders stays off his back. I get the feeling Fitch will choose to stand a good bit and that's Saunders' path to an upset. Does Fitch believe Saunders can beat him? You wouldn't think so. His teammate Mike Swick, at American Kickboxing Academy, Saunders but it should be a more confident Saunders this time around. The price on Fitch, who almost blew it down the stretch against Mike Pierce, is too high.
PICK: SAUNDERS +300
Mark Bocek (+250) v. Jim Miller (-330) - Lightweight
It's a similar story in this fight when it comes to the price. Miller is rock solid. A very well-rounded fighter. But he's not a huge guy for the weight. So there's no guarantee that Miller can stay off the deck. If that's the case, Bocek, a top level grappler, has a chance to pull off the submission.
PICK: BOCEK +250
Rory Markham (+220) v. Nate Diaz (-300) - Welterweight
Who knows what happened with Markham during the weigh-in? He came in seven pounds over the 170 limit but that doesn't mean he's without a chance in this fight. Las Vegas bettors give him a shot. Diaz opened at minus-400. Markham's definitely got to stay off the deck and Diaz may give him that chance if he chooses to show off his jab and boxing skills. Eventually Diaz will get it to the ground. Once down there a smaller welterweight with top level jiu-jitsu can submit a mediocre ground artist.
PICK: DIAZ -300
Matt Brown (+130) v. Ricardo Almeida (-160) - Welterweight
Brown has had loads of trouble in the past with submissions but that was old Matt Brown. The one who was basically a .500 fighter coming into his season of The Ultimate Fighter. With better training, the kid has emerged as a mid-level welterweight with good punching power and solid grappling. James Wilks is a very good submission fighter and Brown more than held his won. Almeida is much better than Wilks on the ground but I still worry about his gas tank and hands. There's enough value on Brown to fire.
PICK: BROWN +130
Fabricio Camoes (+180) v. Kurt Pellegrino (-220) - Lightweight
Pellegrino should be fired up fighting in his home state. But will he be too fired up? It's still the one thing that worries you about "Batman." At times from a mental standpoint, he can be his own worst enemy. As an underdog, Pellegrino is a great bet in most fights because he controls pace. In this one, against a good submission fighter and a tough guy, we'll pass.
PICK: CAMOES +180
Jared Hamman (+150) v. Rodney Wallace (-180) - Light heavyweight
Wallace looked really good at times in a close loss to Brian Stann but it he suffered a little case of the UFC jitters. This is a second UFC fight against a guy who will stand and bang with him, and someone who'll probably have a tough time getting up when Wallace takes him down.
PICK: WALLACE -180
Tomsaz Drwal (+200) v. Rousimar Palhares (-250) - Middleweight
The excitement over Palhares' upside has worn away for me. He's a very one-dimensional fighter and looked uninspired against Lucio Linhares. Sure his jiu-jitsu is lights out but his ability to score takedowns is limited and his hands are weak. Drwal is far from a jiu-jitsu black belt but he's a huge guy for the weight and has big punching power. He's a worthy underdog play.
PICK: DRWAL +200
Greg Soto (+170) v. Matt Riddle (-220) - Welterweight
Soto is a late replacement. That's not good news against a grinder like Riddle. Riddle will test Soto's cardio and break him at some point.
PICK: RIDDLE -220
MMAJunkie also makes selections based on the odds.
More...
Yahoo! Sports.
Cagewriter is an MMA blog edited by Steve Cofield.
The UFC put together a nice card with high drama at the back end. The undercard for UFC 111 tonight in Newark is dotted with some solid underdogs. We'll break things down from a "betting" perspective. This isn't necessarily who is going to win the fight but which side possesses the most betting value in each fight. It's easy to say Georges St. Pierre will crush Dan Hardy. It's another to bet GSP and back up your confidence with say ... $60,000 to win $5,000.
UFC 111 betting odds (Courtesy Venetian Hotel Resort Casino):
Official plays in bold
Dan Hardy (+700) v. Georges St. Pierre (-1200) - UFC Welterweight title
It's hard to read Hardy. Some media folks think his confidence and talking is all a coverup. I like it and think he has confidence going into the fight. We'll find out if he can defend the takedown against GSP. Recently, even NCAA wrestlers haven't been able to avoid St. Pierre's MMA takedowns. Hardy has to be ultra active on his feet and moving at all times. GSP should win the fight and should win easily but unless you've got $12,000-plus to wager and you can afford to lose, why bother betting on him? A small wager on Hardy results in a big payoff and a reason to root for the underdog.
PICK: HARDY +700
Shane Carwin (+110) v. Frank Mir (-140) - UFC interim heavyweight title
I started off liking Mir to win the fight and nothing in the last couple of weeks has changed my mind. Carwin has one mode and that's power. Mir knows that and will do his best to avoid a wrestling match. He's worked on the techinical flaws that did him in against Brock Lesnar. The keys are staying on the move and in the middle of the cage. Carwin is a gigantic guy and we still have little idea if he's got strong cardio. Mir will try to outbox Carwin, he just needs to be very careful in doing so.
PICK: MIR -140
Jon Fitch (-400) v. Ben Saunders (+300) - Welterweight
This can be an interesting fight if Fitch chooses to show off his well-roundedness or Saunders stays off his back. I get the feeling Fitch will choose to stand a good bit and that's Saunders' path to an upset. Does Fitch believe Saunders can beat him? You wouldn't think so. His teammate Mike Swick, at American Kickboxing Academy, Saunders but it should be a more confident Saunders this time around. The price on Fitch, who almost blew it down the stretch against Mike Pierce, is too high.
PICK: SAUNDERS +300
Mark Bocek (+250) v. Jim Miller (-330) - Lightweight
It's a similar story in this fight when it comes to the price. Miller is rock solid. A very well-rounded fighter. But he's not a huge guy for the weight. So there's no guarantee that Miller can stay off the deck. If that's the case, Bocek, a top level grappler, has a chance to pull off the submission.
PICK: BOCEK +250
Rory Markham (+220) v. Nate Diaz (-300) - Welterweight
Who knows what happened with Markham during the weigh-in? He came in seven pounds over the 170 limit but that doesn't mean he's without a chance in this fight. Las Vegas bettors give him a shot. Diaz opened at minus-400. Markham's definitely got to stay off the deck and Diaz may give him that chance if he chooses to show off his jab and boxing skills. Eventually Diaz will get it to the ground. Once down there a smaller welterweight with top level jiu-jitsu can submit a mediocre ground artist.
PICK: DIAZ -300
Matt Brown (+130) v. Ricardo Almeida (-160) - Welterweight
Brown has had loads of trouble in the past with submissions but that was old Matt Brown. The one who was basically a .500 fighter coming into his season of The Ultimate Fighter. With better training, the kid has emerged as a mid-level welterweight with good punching power and solid grappling. James Wilks is a very good submission fighter and Brown more than held his won. Almeida is much better than Wilks on the ground but I still worry about his gas tank and hands. There's enough value on Brown to fire.
PICK: BROWN +130
Fabricio Camoes (+180) v. Kurt Pellegrino (-220) - Lightweight
Pellegrino should be fired up fighting in his home state. But will he be too fired up? It's still the one thing that worries you about "Batman." At times from a mental standpoint, he can be his own worst enemy. As an underdog, Pellegrino is a great bet in most fights because he controls pace. In this one, against a good submission fighter and a tough guy, we'll pass.
PICK: CAMOES +180
Jared Hamman (+150) v. Rodney Wallace (-180) - Light heavyweight
Wallace looked really good at times in a close loss to Brian Stann but it he suffered a little case of the UFC jitters. This is a second UFC fight against a guy who will stand and bang with him, and someone who'll probably have a tough time getting up when Wallace takes him down.
PICK: WALLACE -180
Tomsaz Drwal (+200) v. Rousimar Palhares (-250) - Middleweight
The excitement over Palhares' upside has worn away for me. He's a very one-dimensional fighter and looked uninspired against Lucio Linhares. Sure his jiu-jitsu is lights out but his ability to score takedowns is limited and his hands are weak. Drwal is far from a jiu-jitsu black belt but he's a huge guy for the weight and has big punching power. He's a worthy underdog play.
PICK: DRWAL +200
Greg Soto (+170) v. Matt Riddle (-220) - Welterweight
Soto is a late replacement. That's not good news against a grinder like Riddle. Riddle will test Soto's cardio and break him at some point.
PICK: RIDDLE -220
MMAJunkie also makes selections based on the odds.
More...
Yahoo! Sports.
Cagewriter is an MMA blog edited by Steve Cofield.
