The problem is, the original question was what percentage of people achieve shodan/1st blackbelt. It was pointed out that it is about 1-2% of people who join a martial arts school. BUT, that question doesn't translate into what it means on what type of opponent you might meet in an altercation. For example, I went to school with guys who went to bowling alleys almost every weekend and picked fights (late 80's early 90's when the cops weren't called for everything in our area). They would go to HS football games and try to pick fights, or house parties. After they turned 18, they would enter the "Toughman Contests" that were popular at the time. They never had ANY "formal training", but were more experienced than most people who study in a martial arts school. In the midwest, wrestling is very popular. When I was growing up, the programs in our area started in elementary school. The likelihood that you would face someone with wrestling experience was very high in our city. Also, in regards to TV/Video training. It depends. Former UFC Champion, Evan Tanner (RIP) learned his ground fighting originally from dvds and practicing with his friends. But, I would agree for the most part, it goes no further than LARPing with each other and doesn't translate into real ability.