Clark Kent
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02-06-2010 05:40 PM:Legends butt heads this evening in Las vegas and Cagewriter will be Octagon-side for all the action leading up to the Randy Couture-Mark Coleman fight. You can follow the entire Yahoo! MMA on Twitter @stevecofield, @keviniole and @maggiehendricks. Kevin Iole broke down the card just after Thursday's UFC 109 press conference.
UFC 109 odds (Courtesy Venetian Resort Hotel Casino):
Recommended plays in BOLD Mark Coleman (+350) v. Randy Couture (-500) - Light heavyweight
Don't write off Coleman especially at these odds. Couture didn't exactly throw around Brandon Vera and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira like rag dolls. The guess here is that Couture tries to make this into a striking battle. He does have advantage on the feet offensively but Couture does have some holes defensively, even he admits that. So there is a chance of a home run punch from Coleman. This should be a long fight that goes to decision and Coleman has a shot of pulling the upset. The value is on "The Hammer."
PICK: COLEMAN +350
Chael Sonnen (+350) v. Nate Marquardt (-500) - Middleweight
Sonnen admitted that when he worked with Marquardt in the past he had trouble scoring takedowns. That's the only way he wins this fight. Now let's also take Sonnen's woe-is-me talk with a grain of salt. The two fighters worked together five years ago, Sonnen has certainly improved as a mixed martial artist. Bottomline thought, he does need to get it to the ground. If it stays standing, Marquardt is too athletic and throws in too many combinations for Sonnen to stay upright.
PICK: SONNEN +350
Paulo Thiago (+170) v. Mike Swick (-200) - Welterweight
This is a huge fight for Swick, who can't afford a loss if he hopes to get a shot at Georges St. Pierre in the next few years. Thiago is solid but not spectacular in any area. Swick's takedown defense should allow him to keep this on the feet where Thiago has serious defensive flaws.
PICK: SWICK -200
Dan Miller (+260) v. Demian Maia (-340) - Middleweight
Miller a good mid-level middleweight but if he locks up with Maia, he's in trouble. He got tossed around by Sonnen back at UFC 98 and that was after Maia ran through Sonnen. If Miller can make it into a boxing match, he's got a shot. Is there anyway Maia, after a knockout loss to Marquardt, engages in a fight on the feet? No.
PICK: MAIA -340
Frank Trigg (+115) v. Matt Serra (-145) - Welterweight
Trigg is up against it. His mouth and ability to pump up a card, helps him but without a win her, here's 0-2 in his second chance with the promotion. Is that a good thing or will it make Trigg fight tenatively? I agree with Serra, that you need to be loose. The pressure isn't good. Serra just has to make sure he stays off his back. His striking was good enough to pull the upset on Matt Hughes but he spent too much time underneath Hughes. Trigg has a chance to win a long, boring fight via decision but I still like the finishing power of Serra.
PICK: SERRA -145
Justin Buchholz (+220) v. Mac Danzig (-300) - Lightweight
Buccholz has been impressive even with a 1-3 record in the UFC. He's lost some real wars. It's same case for Danzig, who's lost three straight, against good competition. That said, someone probably needs to win to keep their slot with the promotion. Danzig wants to get this to the ground and he'll probably be able to. But Buchholz is dangerous if he stay off his back.
PICK: DANZIG -300
Ronny Torres (+110) v. Melvin Guillard (-140) - Lightweight
Torres finally makes his debut with the promotion after some injury issues over the summer. This is Guillard's 10th fight in the UFC and we've all seen where he has issues. Guillard's cardio is great and his striking is fast and crisp but he's prone to mental errors. He finally seems to have his training situation together. Guillard left Houston and spent the last two months experiencing the structured existence of Greg's Jackson camp in Albuquerque. any bet on Guillard, especially against someone with strong jiu-jitsu, is risky but we're going to roll with it.
PICK: GUILLARD -140
Rob Emerson (+130) v. Phillipe Nover (-160) - Lightweight
You know Nover has ability. He stormed through the field on season 7 of "The Ultimate Fighter" and dubbed "The next Anderson Silva" by Dana White before folding in the finale. Since then he's had to deal with flash knockouts and health issues since the TV victory. Emerson is a good kickboxer but his takedown defense is weak. Nover will get this one to the ground and put his submission skills to work.
PICK: NOVER -160
Brian Stann (+140) v. Phil Davis (-170) - Light heavyweight
Davis is only four fights into his MMA career and he's almost a 2-to-1 favorite? That tells you the buzz around this kid is through the roof. Davis was the 2008 NCAA wrestling champ at 197 pounds. Don't be fooled, the kid is a legit 205er. Stann's speciality is on the feet and his stamina is improving since working down at Jackson's. Davis is too much of an unknown to lay this kind of number but you have to like his chances if he can consistently dump Stann on his head.
PICK: DAVIS -170
Tim Hague (+120) v. Chris Tuchscherer (-150) - Heavyweight
It's hard to know Tuchscherer offers. his fight against Gabe Gonzaga was a disaster. He got kicked in the groin and never stood a chance the rest of the way. His wrestling is strong and Hague doesn't appear to have a great strength in any area. Tuchscherer doesnh't lack for confidence. He told Cagewriter three weeks ago, that he would've won the Heavyweight season of TUF had he been chosen for the cast.
PICK: TUCHSCHERER -150
Joey Beltran (+450) v. Rolles Gracie (-700) - Heavyweight
Coming from the most famous MMA family in the world, Gracie comes with a lot of hype. Beltran is a last second replacement which can't speak well for his condiitioning. Shocker! Gracie by submission.
PICK: GRACIE -700
More...
Yahoo! Sports.
Cagewriter is an MMA blog edited by Steve Cofield.
UFC 109 odds (Courtesy Venetian Resort Hotel Casino):
Recommended plays in BOLD Mark Coleman (+350) v. Randy Couture (-500) - Light heavyweight
Don't write off Coleman especially at these odds. Couture didn't exactly throw around Brandon Vera and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira like rag dolls. The guess here is that Couture tries to make this into a striking battle. He does have advantage on the feet offensively but Couture does have some holes defensively, even he admits that. So there is a chance of a home run punch from Coleman. This should be a long fight that goes to decision and Coleman has a shot of pulling the upset. The value is on "The Hammer."
PICK: COLEMAN +350
Chael Sonnen (+350) v. Nate Marquardt (-500) - Middleweight
Sonnen admitted that when he worked with Marquardt in the past he had trouble scoring takedowns. That's the only way he wins this fight. Now let's also take Sonnen's woe-is-me talk with a grain of salt. The two fighters worked together five years ago, Sonnen has certainly improved as a mixed martial artist. Bottomline thought, he does need to get it to the ground. If it stays standing, Marquardt is too athletic and throws in too many combinations for Sonnen to stay upright.
PICK: SONNEN +350
Paulo Thiago (+170) v. Mike Swick (-200) - Welterweight
This is a huge fight for Swick, who can't afford a loss if he hopes to get a shot at Georges St. Pierre in the next few years. Thiago is solid but not spectacular in any area. Swick's takedown defense should allow him to keep this on the feet where Thiago has serious defensive flaws.
PICK: SWICK -200
Dan Miller (+260) v. Demian Maia (-340) - Middleweight
Miller a good mid-level middleweight but if he locks up with Maia, he's in trouble. He got tossed around by Sonnen back at UFC 98 and that was after Maia ran through Sonnen. If Miller can make it into a boxing match, he's got a shot. Is there anyway Maia, after a knockout loss to Marquardt, engages in a fight on the feet? No.
PICK: MAIA -340
Frank Trigg (+115) v. Matt Serra (-145) - Welterweight
Trigg is up against it. His mouth and ability to pump up a card, helps him but without a win her, here's 0-2 in his second chance with the promotion. Is that a good thing or will it make Trigg fight tenatively? I agree with Serra, that you need to be loose. The pressure isn't good. Serra just has to make sure he stays off his back. His striking was good enough to pull the upset on Matt Hughes but he spent too much time underneath Hughes. Trigg has a chance to win a long, boring fight via decision but I still like the finishing power of Serra.
PICK: SERRA -145
Justin Buchholz (+220) v. Mac Danzig (-300) - Lightweight
Buccholz has been impressive even with a 1-3 record in the UFC. He's lost some real wars. It's same case for Danzig, who's lost three straight, against good competition. That said, someone probably needs to win to keep their slot with the promotion. Danzig wants to get this to the ground and he'll probably be able to. But Buchholz is dangerous if he stay off his back.
PICK: DANZIG -300
Ronny Torres (+110) v. Melvin Guillard (-140) - Lightweight
Torres finally makes his debut with the promotion after some injury issues over the summer. This is Guillard's 10th fight in the UFC and we've all seen where he has issues. Guillard's cardio is great and his striking is fast and crisp but he's prone to mental errors. He finally seems to have his training situation together. Guillard left Houston and spent the last two months experiencing the structured existence of Greg's Jackson camp in Albuquerque. any bet on Guillard, especially against someone with strong jiu-jitsu, is risky but we're going to roll with it.
PICK: GUILLARD -140
Rob Emerson (+130) v. Phillipe Nover (-160) - Lightweight
You know Nover has ability. He stormed through the field on season 7 of "The Ultimate Fighter" and dubbed "The next Anderson Silva" by Dana White before folding in the finale. Since then he's had to deal with flash knockouts and health issues since the TV victory. Emerson is a good kickboxer but his takedown defense is weak. Nover will get this one to the ground and put his submission skills to work.
PICK: NOVER -160
Brian Stann (+140) v. Phil Davis (-170) - Light heavyweight
Davis is only four fights into his MMA career and he's almost a 2-to-1 favorite? That tells you the buzz around this kid is through the roof. Davis was the 2008 NCAA wrestling champ at 197 pounds. Don't be fooled, the kid is a legit 205er. Stann's speciality is on the feet and his stamina is improving since working down at Jackson's. Davis is too much of an unknown to lay this kind of number but you have to like his chances if he can consistently dump Stann on his head.
PICK: DAVIS -170
Tim Hague (+120) v. Chris Tuchscherer (-150) - Heavyweight
It's hard to know Tuchscherer offers. his fight against Gabe Gonzaga was a disaster. He got kicked in the groin and never stood a chance the rest of the way. His wrestling is strong and Hague doesn't appear to have a great strength in any area. Tuchscherer doesnh't lack for confidence. He told Cagewriter three weeks ago, that he would've won the Heavyweight season of TUF had he been chosen for the cast.
PICK: TUCHSCHERER -150
Joey Beltran (+450) v. Rolles Gracie (-700) - Heavyweight
Coming from the most famous MMA family in the world, Gracie comes with a lot of hype. Beltran is a last second replacement which can't speak well for his condiitioning. Shocker! Gracie by submission.
PICK: GRACIE -700
More...
Yahoo! Sports.
Cagewriter is an MMA blog edited by Steve Cofield.
