Saudi Arabia

Ender

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Now this is interesting. Sure it's just a persective, but the possibilities are there...and this could change the whole situation.


Intelligence Digest
04 June 2004

The evacuation of Saudi Arabia

The steady exodus of expatriate workers from Saudi Arabia is set to gather pace in the coming weeks following the latest terrorist assault against foreigners in the Kingdom. ID assesses whether Al-Qaeda's long-standing strategy of destabilising the increasingly embattled House of Saud stands any real prospect of success.

Although the ousting of the Saudi royals has been predicted for some years the monarchy in the desert Kingdom has managed to survive thanks to support from the USA and its own policy of buying off or otherwise silencing its domestic opponents. However, with the US Department of State now urging its citizens to leave and the British Foreign Office issuing warnings to its own expatriates, the steady outflow of skilled Western workers is almost certain to gather pace - raising serious questions about the impact of an exodus of foreign technicians on the country's oil industry.

Of course, that is precisely the reaction that those who planned the attacks in Khobar on Sunday which left 22 dead are hoping. Of equal concern is the escape of three of the assailants amid mounting allegations by survivors that a deal was done between the militants and the Saudi security forces in return for the release of the remaining 41 hostages.

For some experienced Middle East analysts, there are significant parallels between the current situation in Saudi Arabia and the final months of the Shah of Iran before his flight into exile, followed by the Islamic revolution which swept the ayatollahs into power (and cost the USA one of its key regional allies). As one foreign policy veteran told ID: "The collapse of authority tends to be the end result of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once there is the perception that the old regime is doomed, it is usually a matter of time before it actually collapses. We saw precisely this sequence of events in Iran in 1979."

There is mounting concern among Western intelligence agencies that Al-Qaeda's next move will be to target the Kingdom's oil infrastructure in order to disrupt production. Any incident which threatens to reduce Saudi exports is almost certain to fuel the escalating price of oil - which reached a 21-year high at the end of May (although in real terms, this is still lower than the peaks reached during the 1973 oil crisis).
 
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rmcrobertson

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Makes ya kind of wonder if we haven't been really, really stupid to ground so much of our economy on cheap oil and big cars, don't it?
 
OP
Ender

Ender

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psssst.....we already had troops in the middle east...in Saudi and Kuwait... :rolleyes:
 

Touch Of Death

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Ender said:
psssst.....we already had troops in the middle east...in Saudi and Kuwait... :rolleyes:
Token presense I assure you. But just look at all the combat rained troops we have as opposed to year ago. Its all part of the master plan.
sean
 

hardheadjarhead

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Good post, Ender.

Something a little more in-depth on the subject:


THE STRATFOR WEEKLY
08 June 2004

Saudi Oil Crown Slipping Away?

By Peter Zeihan

Summary

Attacks against expatriates working in the Saudi Arabian oil patch have accelerated in tempo and intensity during the past several months. If this trend is not reversed -- which is not likely -- Riyadh will slowly fall from its current position as the kingpin of global energy markets. Oil prices will be both higher and more volatile, Saudi social stability far less guaranteed and OPEC less a force to be reckoned with.

Analysis

The Saudi Energy Complex

Like many energy sectors outside the West, the Saudi energy complex is run by a state monopoly, Saudi Aramco. Locals run most of the business, but much of the technical work is done by a much smaller cadre of expatriates who are either directly employed by Saudi Aramco or work in a consultant-type relationship. In Saudi Arabia, that "smaller cadre" is a group of approximately 100,000 Japanese and Western workers, about 65,000 of them citizens of either the United States or the United Kingdom.

Most of our Saudi sources maintain that the Saudis themselves manage the day-to-day tasks of pumping oil, collecting it for shipment via pipelines and loading it into tankers. Meanwhile, the expatriates are the brain trust of Saudi Aramco, handling most relations with foreign customers, legal matters,
exploration, repairs to critical systems, expansion projects and other advanced work. The expatriates also are the mechanism through which new Western technology flows into the kingdom. The hybridized system is thick with job redundancies because bringing new expatriates up to speed can take about six months.

Sources within the Saudi Aramco expatriate community indicate that if they were to depart, production would not suffer in the short term. Instead, Saudi Aramco's operational efficiency would plummet, recovery rates would drop and it would become very difficult to add new fields to its roster of productive assets.

As one energy expert affiliated with another state oil firm in the developing world put it: Think of the expatriates as the architects at a construction site. They do not do all the work by any stretch of the imagination, but should they leave, the remaining construction workers lack the vision and expertise to care the project to fruition.

The expatriates employed by or affiliated with Saudi Aramco are not skittish people by nature. They live and work in a country whose state religion defines them as the worst sort of infidels. A large proportion of them are veterans of the days of Desert Storm, which saw Iraqi missiles landing in and around cities with high expatriate populations.

The reason is not so much bravery, as benefits. Most expats work in Saudi Arabia for the money (which is exceedingly good) and the perks. Educational opportunities abound for the expatriates and their dependents, the living is lavish and being surrounded by an exotic culture provides an extra thrill.

These things are not all that attractive if someone is trying to kill you.


(c) 2004 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.

http://www.stratfor.com

==========================================


There's far more to that brief...but its rather lengthy. I can forward the full thing to anyone that wants it.


Regards,


Steve
 

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