Oil price mocks fuel realities

Bob Hubbard

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This is an interesting read....

Oil price mocks fuel realities
By F William Engdahl

As business and consumers consider the implications for them of crude oil selling at US$130-plus per barrel, they should bear in mind that, at a conservative calculation, at least 60% of that price comes from unregulated futures speculation by hedge funds, banks and financial groups using the London ICE Futures and New York Nymex futures exchanges and uncontrolled inter-bank or over-the-counter trading to avoid scrutiny (see Speculators knock OPEC off oil-price perch, Asia Times Online, May 6, 2008).

US margin rules of the government's Commodity Futures Trading Commission allow speculators to buy a crude oil futures contract on the Nymex by paying only 6% of the value of the contract. At the present price of around $130 per barrel, that means a futures trader only has to put up about $8 for every barrel. He borrows the other $120.

This extreme "leverage" of 16 to one helps drive prices to wildly unrealistic levels and offset bank losses in subprime and other disasters at the expense of the overall population.

Lots more at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JE24Dj02.html
 
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Bob Hubbard

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Some interesting bits:

MasterCard's May 7 US gasoline report showed that gas demand has fallen by 5.8%. And refiners are reducing their refining rates dramatically to adjust to the falling gasoline demand. They are now running at 85% of capacity, down from 89% a year ago, in a season when production is normally 95%. The refiners today are clearly trying to draw down gasoline inventories to bid gasoline prices up.

studies concluded that the energy price climb to $128 and beyond is driven by billions of dollars' worth of oil and natural gas futures contracts being placed on the ICE. Through a convenient regulation exception granted by the George W Bush administration in January 2006, the ICE Futures trading of US energy futures is not regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), even though the ICE Futures US oil contracts are traded in ICE affiliates in the US. And at Enron's request, the CFTC exempted the over-the-counter oil futures trades in 2000.
 

Jai

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Death to Big Oil... We have it really bad where I live. The biggest problem is it's a 35 mile drive to any kind of "respectable" gas station. Then it's another 35 miles home again. Gas here hit 3.82 a gallon just yesterday...
 

Brian R. VanCise

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Death to Big Oil... We have it really bad where I live. The biggest problem is it's a 35 mile drive to any kind of "respectable" gas station. Then it's another 35 miles home again. Gas here hit 3.82 a gallon just yesterday...

Well your lucky it was $4.15 here yesterday.
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Sukerkin

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Our prices are currently ranging between £1.10 and £1.10 per litre which, at present exchange rates is about $9.90.
 

Sukerkin

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Aye, I've noted that diesel is now muchmore expensive than pertrol, FD - what's going on there then?

It's almost as if there is a secret plot to drive up inflation by over-pricing the fuel that's most used to transport stuff about ... suspicious, moi? :lol:.
 

MA-Caver

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Our prices are currently ranging between £1.10 and £1.10 per litre which, at present exchange rates is about $9.90.

Oh well by all means we shouldn't complain.

SHEESH mate! That's a double whammy. 1. That your prices are exorbitantly high and 2. that our exchange rates are extremely weak.

So, I ask my fellow citizens... what are WE going to do about it all? ***** and moan some more and still shell out their extortion money?
 

Sukerkin

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:D I didn't mean that you shouldn't complain :lol:. I was just showing that all things are relative. As to what to do about it, well, we're all a bit tangled in the web at the moment because our alternatives are so limited and the government makes so much in taxes off fuel.

We did have a suscessful protest a few years back which forced the government to back down on some tax increases (they just snuck them in later when noone was looking) but a recent repeat attempt failed dismally to even gain much media time.

I also note that I left off an important bit of information from my post above. The sentence should read "... $9.90/gallon".
 

Empty Hands

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They are now running at 85% of capacity, down from 89% a year ago, in a season when production is normally 95%.

Gee, I thought all our problems were due to crazy environmentalist whackjobs who wouldn't let the noble oil companies build any refineries...
 
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Bob Hubbard

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I read somewhere a while ago that "Big Oil" ssaid it wasn't worth drilling in the US and pumping until oil crossed the $100/barrel point....now they're saying they need the ok to drill where they're not currently allowed to....suspicious, no?
 

Jai

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Not at all!! We should trust in big oil *nods*

Now say it with me, "All hail big oil.. All hail...."
 

Brian Johns

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I'm a bit skeptical that Big Oil is entirely to be blamed for the current oil price problem. I think that they are part of the problem...just not the whole problem. For one thing, there is the law of supply and demand, especially in regard to the growing appetite of China, Russia, Brazil, and India. Secondly, Big Oil has been increasingly pushed out of a fair number of major oil producing countries (ie by Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and by Vlad in Russia. Nigeria is an extremely unstable place. Ditto for the Middle East. OPEC controls 40% of oil production worldwide. And many of those countries will not release data with regard to their oil reserves....which more than likely contributes to the rising price of oil. Then there's the failure of the USA to enunciate a clear long term energy policy. Bottom line, there are factors other than Big Oil going on here.
 

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My opinion as an economist is that any business will follow whatever course is available to maximise profits, as long as it is consistent with their world view and moral sense.

As corporations have no moral sense and their world view is distinctly short-term (the horizon being the next shareholders meeting) what course of action is taken is likely to be incomprehensible because it is not based on what individuals would consider to be a rational basis.

That is why you have an orchestrated invasion of Iraq to provide a foothold in the Middle-East (whist at the same time destabilising the region allowing for further such missions if required). Simultaneously, you get an invasion in all but name of Afghanistan to secure the most important leg of the oil pipeline from the Russian Balkan states.

"Big Oil", a phrase I'd not heard before frequenting here, has Big Plans - none of them are remotely concerned with the welfare of anyone but those who benefit from the bottom line.

Can it be stopped? Not as far as I can see. Enjoy the new coming Age, gentlemen. It's almost certain to be an unpleasant one ... unless of course we reinstate the British Empire. After all, that's about the last time everything worked properly :D.
 

Cryozombie

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I get approx 50 Mpg and it costs me about 15 bucks to fill up... as long as Im not driving my Camaro. I'm trding staying warm and dry for being able to afford to go to work and play... so some fat cat can get richER.
 

SageGhost83

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Yeah, I am feeling it in my pockets, too. I read in the local paper that there is a record low of commuters this past holiday weekend, and I am not surprised. I stayed home, too. With prices so high, I don't even want to go anywhere unless it is absolutely necessary to do so. The prices are outrageous, but hey, so is our greedy, gotta have more-gotta have it now lifestyle. I am with Sukerkin on this one - it is only going to get much worse before it gets better.
 

Sukerkin

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Yeah, I am feeling it in my pockets, too. I read in the local paper that there is a record low of commuters this past holiday weekend, and I am not surprised. I stayed home, too. With prices so high, I don't even want to go anywhere unless it is absolutely necessary to do so.

I know that it's not pleasant for people to find their freedom of movement constrained by finances but part of me is pleased to see a victory for common-sense amongst so many i.e. can't afford it, so don't do it rather than increase debt.


The prices are outrageous, but hey, so is our greedy, gotta have more-gotta have it now lifestyle. I am with Sukerkin on this one - it is only going to get much worse before it gets better.

Thank you for the corroboration. It would seem from an article I read today that even those in Britain who would be considered well-off are feeling the pinch of the sudden belt-tightening that's happened.

Grrr .. don't get me started on the self-serving invidiousness of the banking system ...
 

Nolerama

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Yeah, I am feeling it in my pockets, too.

Amen to that. Travel costs aside, I think the real hurt will be in other things, like food prices and cost of living elevation.

The prices are outrageous, but hey, so is our greedy, gotta have more-gotta have it now lifestyle. I am with Sukerkin on this one - it is only going to get much worse before it gets better.

Lifestyle changes. That's what needs to be done, and (from an American point of view) it will happen. The simple idea of a "Sunday Drive" will be looked upon as an indulgence, rather than a weekly occurrence. We will be walking to work/school/market with public transportation; and it will take a generation to cope with the change in what powers the "tech" in our high-tech society.

We will adapt. Accepting that major changes are occurring now can give you an edge in the future. It'll be a sad (but humorously ironic) day when the last soccer mom to buy a Hummer realizes that her vehicle is illegal due to gas consumption.
 

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