Oil 2: Crude Awakenings

[Steve]

Rather than derail billcihak's Oil thread, I thought I'd start a new one.

billcihak said the following:

If they made an electiric car that had the same properties that a gas fueled car has, at the same price range then they would fly out of the dealerships. The technology isn't there yet and won't be for a long time. I'm all for any technology that is more efficient. If we could harvest candy canes and use them for fuel that would be fine by me.

"The technology isn't there yet and won't be for a long time."

How far are we from this? Really? I don't think we're far at all. I'm getting all sorts of literature on the LEAF and the Volt, as the launch of both cars draws near. As a potential early adopter of the first 100% EV mass produced for a more mainstream customer base, I'm very interested in reading as many reviews and getting as much feedback as I can. This is one of the most down to Earth reviews I've read from wired.com, and it's a pretty positive one. In fact, the only negative reviews I've read so far by anyone have been more political in nature than any practical, specific criticism of the car.

So, aside from angst and anger about government incentives, how far are we from moving completely (or mostly) away from the internal combustion engine? "A long time?" I don't know. Seems like we're not that far, at all. Battery technology is improving literally all the time, and other alternatives such as fuel cells, biodiesel and plug-in hybrids like the Volt are making inroads such that we could see an average MPG or MPGe up in the 60's or higher within the decade.

 

[Sukerkin]

The problem will always be that until we sort out the generation side of the equation, all that electrically powered vehicles do is move the problem a step down the energy chain.

Plus, they (electric cars) are really not mature yet and their component parts cause more toxic pollution that an ICE car ever will.

Battery technology is improving hand over fist tho', especially with such things as molecular tunneling that guides the flow of electrons with a huge increase in recharging efficiency.

Combine fusion generation with next-gen battery designs and we might well be in the way to breaking free from the terrible waste that is burning hydro-carbons for transport.

 

[Steve]

Generation of power is an important, but distinct problem. An EV, well to wheel, is still MUCH better for the environment, even if you consider battery disposal. There's a lot made of the generation of power, but personally, i think it's alarmist at worst and untrue at best, depending entirely upon where you live and how your grid is supplied. There are people in the southern states actually getting money back from the power company and some communities are investing in communal wind generators. We can generate power in ways that don't burn dinosaurs, and given incentive, we'll get even better at it.

Regarding batteries, I agree that it's a big issue. But again, it's a huge improvement over what we have, and again, the entire industry is improving at a huge rate. I just don't get how you can compare an ICE to an electric motor that doesn't use gas, can run on electricity from any source including hydro, wind, biomass OR coal, and has a battery system that is modular (meaning you only replace the cell that is bad, not the entire array) AND is expected to maintain 70% to 80% efficiency after a decade.

My point isn't to suggest that we've found the ultimate answer; rather, that we're not all that far off. We're closer than people think.

Here's a link to a well to wheel analysis of alternative fuel sources, with citations. The entire report cited is also online. http://web.mit.edu/evt/summary_wtw.pdf