Katrina reaches catagory 5

[Makalakumu]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9063708/

New Orleans is shaped like a bowl. The levee system around the city blocked the Mississippi River from deposting sediment so the pre-existing sediment load just keeps sinking isostatically. The city is below sea level and a possible 25 foot storm surge is heading toward it. Lake Ponchatrain could very well move and become Lake New Orleans. Over 100,000 people do not have the capacity to escape because they are too old or poor. City officials plan to use the Super Dome to house them.

A couple of things we could discuss...

1. These hurricanes are being tripped off in water that rose one degree because of global warming. Anyone want to reconsider the Kyoto Treaty in the face of billions in damage and possible thousands of lives?

2. We have built large cities in some very geologically stupid areas and we will continue throwing billions of dollars at reoccuring disasters. Is there anything we can do about this?

 

[Senjojutsu]

1. These hurricanes are being tripped off in water that rose one degree because of global warming. Anyone want to reconsider the Kyoto Treaty in the face of billions in damage and possible thousands of lives?

Well I hate to bring up the fact there have been devastating hurricanes recorded well before 1975 hitting the USA. We just have 24x7-news coverage and better technology to warn us, and hype for TV ratings. Just watch the news coverage of blizzards in New England during the winter season - wall-to-wall coverage of snowplows and doppler radar.

2. We have built large cities in some very geologically stupid areas and we will continue throwing billions of dollars at reoccuring disasters. Is there anything we can do about this?

Stop spending taxpayers money to repair the damage may be a first step!
Which courageous politician will propose that concept in your opinion?

Are you suggesting that we dictatorially force tens of millions of Americans to relocate to say Kansas and Nebraska based on your risk criteria?

Depopulate the coastlines?? Who will pay the $TRILLIONS for that edict's implementation???

In human history most, but not all, great cities have been built near water - oceans or rivers, which means occasional destruction/damage due to flooding. Then there are the cities built in the shadow of (dormant!!) volcanoes or on fault lines.

Life is risky, what really is open for debate is who should pay for the repairs/protective measures based on choices made within the constraints of a modern nation state. It seems like during the past decade half the counties in America have been declared disaster areas at one time or another. Winds, wildfires, floods, ice storms, blizzards, drought… !!it & FEMA happens.

 

[Sapper6]

the kyoto treaty was a fraud and it's proponents know it.

If you put the Kyoto treaty into the IPCC computer model, you find that the difference Kyoto would make by 2100 (the normal benchmark year) cannot be measured. That is, the predicted change in global average temperature (or pick your parameter) is so small that one could not tell, by looking at the temperature data, whether or not Kyoto had been in effect for 100 years. Looked at another way, Kyoto does not end anthropogenic warming, but only slows it down by 6 years out of 100.

If you pin down a knowledgeable Kyoto advocate and ask them about this, they will (if they are honest) admit that this is true. You will then learn that the purpose of Kyoto is "to get a climate control regime started." Translated, this means "to stop anthropogenic global warming, we must make drastic cuts in CO2 usage in the future. But those will be enormously economically damaging and are not politically possible. So, we will start with a little step. Then we will do another little step, and eventually sneak the whole thing in." Of course, one may also notice that Kyoto was written in a way to hurt the United States to the benefit of western Europe, China and India.

Finally, regarding Kyoto, if the science shown above hasn't convinced you that it is an extremely dumb idea, consider that for it to achieve its neglible effects, mankind must behave itself for the next 100 years. No major wars, no big energy using rogue nations, no technological changes that invalidate the assumptions, etc. So just imagine that it is 1903 and we have the same data and are trying to achieve the same results. What would happen?

Obviously, the enormous political and technological changes of the 20th century would have rendered it moot. WW-I, WW-II, the rise of the huge communist states which had zero interest in reducing pollution, the huge increase in oil use, the invention of the computer, the atomic bomb, relativity theory..... Do we really expect the 21st century to be so boring and predictable that Kyoto would be meaningful after 100 years, given past history?

how about we not look for blame and point fingers. it's a friggin hurricane and they've been around long before global warming was a conceivable idea.

where would you suggest we move all our cities to? you're not going to escape nature, ever. we deal with that.

 

[arnisador]

Scary. Imagine evacuating all of New Orleans--what a feat!

 

[KenpoEMT]

Urgent Weather Message from NWS New Orleans

WWUS74 KLIX 281550NPWLIXURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINAA MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. ATLEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.


CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATEADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...


AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...


BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEWCROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BEKILLED.AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEARHURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE..


.ARECERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTUREOUTSIDE!LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

This is without a doubt the most horrifying weather warning that I have ever seen.

 

[KenpoEMT]

WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED.

ATLEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES.

THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATEADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK

FEWCROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BEKILLED

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTUREOUTSIDE!

God help those that haven't evacuated by now...they'll never get out in time.

Bumper to Bumper.

 

[Makalakumu]

This is without a doubt the most horrifying weather warning that I have ever seen.

Up to three million people will be displaced by Mother Nature in the next 48 hours. People will lose their houses, their neighborhoods, their jobs, their livelihoods and maybe even their lives. I have spoken to some hydrologist friends of mine and some even think the city of New Orleans may be uninhabitable after this...ie it will not be rebuilt.

As the destruction unfolds, pray for the victims and do what you can to aid them. This could very well be the largest natural disaster in the history of the US.

Also, consider the science. We've had 7 named tropical storms already this year. This is more then any time in recorded history. We've measured rises in ocean temperature in relation to rises in climate temperature and it has been shown to directly attribute to a rise in the number of hurricanes and the overall strength of hurricanes. Most scientists agree, this is a result of global warming.

So what do we do? If Kyoto isn't good enough, what is? If we do nothing, we can expect more of the above to happen more frequently in the future. This is where the rubber meets the pavement, folks.

 

[KenpoEMT]

I was just watching CNN. They emergency shelters are not allowing everyone in. 2,000 people outside chanting "let us in! let us in!".

There are 100,000 people in New Orleans without transportation. Just heard that from CNN. Will try to find a link to confirm.

 

[KenpoEMT]

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/28/hurricane.katrina/index.html

Katrina could inundate New Orleans

NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana (CNN) -- Emergency officials in New Orleans braced for a potentially catastrophic blow on Sunday as Hurricane Katrina swept toward the Gulf Coast -- and the city -- with maximum sustained winds near 175 mph.
Mayor Ray Nagin declared a state of emergency on Sunday and ordered a mandatory evacuation of the city the Category 5 storm approached.

Forecasters said the storm surge could reach 28 feet.

"We are facing a storm that most of us have feared," Nagin said. "I do not want to create panic, but I do want the citizens to understand that this is very serious and it's of the highest nature. About 70 percent of New Orleans is below sea level, and is protected by a series of levies. (Watch video of mayor's announcement

"The storm surge most likely will top our levee system," Nagin said. (Full story)

 

[KenpoEMT]

New Orleans mayor orders 'mandatory' evacuation as hurricane nears

I do not want to create panic. But I do want the citizens to understand that this is very serious and it's of the highest nature. And that's why we take this unprecedented move," said Mayor Ray Nagin, announcing the evacuation order

...
He said those unable to get out of New Orleans ahead of Katrina's vast wrath should head to the city's massive Superdome football stadium, which he designated as a refuge of "last resort."

http://www.topix.net/city/new-orleans-la

 

[Makalakumu]

I feel humbled by this whole thing. Minnesota is a long way from New Orleans, but we share a river. I'm looking at my options to see what I can do to help with the aftermath. From farther away, removed from the danger, its easier to think about things like oceanography, hydrology, and global warming. Yet, one fact remains.

Life is going to change irrevocably for millions of people.

This discussion isn't a callous argument about political positions for me. This is about science and the interface of science with our lives. This is the human side of what we talk about and about what I teach. For me, my compassion for the people and the science behind their plight are intertwined.

An explanation for these kinds of events exists. God isn't calling down the heavens to punish the people of New Orleans. Physical factors caused this storm. Physical factors that we effect.

upnorthkyosa

 

[KenpoEMT]

Sorry, didn't realize I was Hi-Jacking your thread until I re-read your initial post.

Maybe I can get a Moderator to split my posts off.

This event is horrifying... I hope that the football stadium is not below sea level if they are expecting their levees to be overcome.

 

[Makalakumu]

Sorry, didn't realize I was Hi-Jacking your thread.

Maybe I can get a Moderator to split my posts off.

Oh, no, this is perfect. Discussing the storm itself, its effects, its causes, and things related is great. I think your posts are helping form a big picture of what is going on. Like I said above, this is where the rubber meets the road in regards to science. This is the human side. Keep it up!

:asian:

upnorthkyosa

 

[Makalakumu]

This event is horrifying... I hope that the football stadium is not below sea level if they are expecting their levees to be overcome.

If one were to float a ship on the Mississippi over the Superdome, it would hover over it like a blimp. One can stand next to it and stare up at the river.

 

[KenpoEMT]

The size of this thing nearly fills the ENTIRE gulf:

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xg1_ir_anim.gif

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p37cr/si.klix.shtml

 

[Makalakumu]

The size of this thing nearly fills the ENTIRE gulf:

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xg1_ir_anim.gif

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p37cr/si.klix.shtml

You know, in the eye of this hurricane, birds are trapped, the sun is shining, and everything is calm. In the walls of the eye, the winds are the strongest. The packs a double whammy when it comes to hurricanes. Both sides of the eye wall pack equal winds, but in opposite directions.

Meteorologist have predicted that this storm will keep strengthening...even to the point of rivalling hurricane Camille in 1969. Camille had sustained winds of 205 mph and it was the strongest hurricane ever recorded.

Even if it doesn't strengthen, the eye is still predicted to pass over New Orleans.

 

[KenpoEMT]

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/world/12487825.htm

Katrina could be especially devastating if it strikes New Orleans because the city sits below sea level and is dependent on levees and pumps to keep the water out. A direct hit could wind up submerging the city in several feet of water.

Found a news link for the 100,000 people without transportation (that's not the focus of the story though):

Making matters worse, at least 100,000 people in the city lack the transportation to get out of town. Nagin said the Superdome might be used as a shelter of last resort for people who have no cars, with city bus pick-up points around New Orleans.

"I know they're saying `Get out of town,' but I don't have any way to get out," said Hattie Johns, 74. "If you don't have no money, you can't go."

Owners of gas stations in and around New Orleans were forced to direct traffic as lines to the pumps stretched down surrounding streets. Gas stations were running low on gas by midafternoon Saturday
"I was in line at the bank for an hour and have been waiting for gas for 30 minutes," said John Sullivan. "If it's anything like they say its going to be, we don't want to be anywhere close to the city."

"The problem is getting a taxi to the airport. There aren't any," said Brian Katz, a salesman from New York

Others tried leaving but couldn't get a flight.
"We tried to move it up, but they told us they were all booked up," said Terry Evans of Cleveland, whose flight was supposed to leave Monday morning. "We may end up sleeping at the airport."

Katrina is the 11th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1. That's seven more than typically have formed by now in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane center said. The season ends Nov. 30.

 

[Sapper6]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8245668/

Will global warming make hurricanes stronger?
Scientists debate potential impact on future storm patterns.

"Trends in human-influenced environmental changes are now evident in hurricane regions," Trenberth said. "These changes are expected to affect hurricane intensity and rainfall, but the effect on hurricane numbers remains unclear. The key scientific question is how hurricanes are changing."

He thought that global warming could have an impact on hurricanes, but he quoted one study that predicted only a 5 percent change in wind speeds over 80 years due to increases in heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

“It doesn’t mean there is zero effect,” he said. “But that’s hardly measurable.”

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/trenberth.shtml

"Computer models also suggest a shift in hurricane intensities toward extreme hurricanes," says Trenberth.

Much more uncertain is the effect of human-induced climate change on hurricane numbers and landfalls. Models disagree on how global warming might affect the wind shear that can either support or discourage hurricane formation.

Globally, the number of hurricanes and typhoons tends to hold relatively steady from year to year. When activity increases in the Atlantic, it often decreases in the Pacific, and vice versa, based in part on El Niño and La Niña.

while i agree with you that human interaction with the planet's atmosphere has a direct effect on weather, it should be noted that such is really minor in the scheme of things. to say we can prevent extreme deadly hurricanes now, well, we would have had to implemented these preventive measures over a hundred years ago. while we live here, we must concede that there are just some things we cannot change or prevent. even if we were to start implementing these things to cut down or even eliminate greenhouse gases and slowing the effects of global warming, the fruits of our labor wouldn't be evident for hundreds of years. there's not going to be a change noticed in a short amount of time.

until then, we should use common sense in personal safety to live through these catastrophic events...and hope they speed up the development of those "moon cities". life on earth is going to get much worse before it gets better and human's shouldn't be entirely to blame. perhaps some of you have heard that the earth's core is heating up and starting to spin at a faster rate than the planet itself. this is bound to have an ecological and atmospherical effect.

 

[KenpoEMT]

I can't seem to find any information of the military assisting in the evacuation...

Why aren't there any c-130's and c-141's flying into the airport to lift the stranded out? If they can arange for the city buses to pick people up from around the city and drop them at the stadium, why can't they drop them at the airport for emergency evacuation by Air Force transports? You can not tell me that ALL of the transports are in Iraq. I this situation the military should assist. Pres. Bush has already made a declaration of emergency for the area. Usually, they don't do that till afterward. Dammit, get the planes in there!


...how about the commercial airlines provide free evacuations? Oh yeah, they can't make any money off of saving anyone's life.

 

[Sapper6]

I can't seem to find any information of the military assisting in the evacuation...

Why aren't there any c-130's and c-141's flying into the airport to lift the stranded out? If they can arange for the city buses to pick people up from around the city and drop them at the stadium, why can't they drop them at the airport for emergency evacuation by Air Force transports? You can not tell me that ALL of the transports are in Iraq. I this situation the military should assist. Pres. Bush has already made a declaration of emergency for the area. Usually, they don't do that till afterward. Dammit, get the planes in there!

while i agree with your frustrations, the military isn't going to act until asked to do so. the help must be requested from the state, and won't be done until all other evac resources have been exhausted. as for using c-130s and the like to evac civilian personnel, these aircraft just aren't "civilian friendly". although there are a number of applicable aircraft that can be used. it really isn't a plausible idea.

now using commercial planes, that would be a better idea. would it happen, probably not. too much liability in saving lives to make it worth their while.