What is your plan for re-opening?

[Flying Crane]

It actually is similar. Approximately 10k people per year are killed as a result of drunk drivers in the US. Most people who drive while drunk do not kill anyone or even get into an accident or get caught doing so. And yet something like 20% of people know someone who died due to drunk driving.

In comparison, 102K people died from COVID-19 in the US. Since it's been here for less than half a year, compare that to probably 4k drunk drivers in the same amount of time. Most people who go out are not spreading COVID, because they don't have it. But, similarly to drunk driving, when enough people do so, they are spreading it and killing others without any malicious intent whatsoever (all the drunk drivers I've talked to whom have killed someone feel regret. Even those who only drank 2 beers, and I talked to them 15 years later).

The only real difference is that you will never know if you killed anyone with your actions. You may not even acknowledge that you had the potential to do so. The drunk drivers know that they are murderers, you do not. You don't even consider the possibility. That is literally the only difference.

And yet, one you acknowledge as being a horrible thing to do, the other you dismiss any risk from.

Very well articulated sir.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

@_Simon_ , temperature is thought to deter the virus here in the states. With the generally higher temperatures where you live does that seem to track? The southern U.S. states have certainly had it easier here so far.

I was chatting with a farmer friend last week and he said they were getting up square bale hay in 44° C (112° F) heat. All I could say was I sure hope it was a dry heat.

Since coronaviruses are (I think I have the terminology correct) fatty viruses, they are less resilient during warm weather. That apparently affects how long they survive outside the body, though, rather than how infectious they are. The major outbreaks in Brazil and elsewhere in South America are evidence of that last point.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

50/50 chance? That is outright absurd. I find it truly bizarre how we went through the avian flu pandemic in 2008 and didn't miss a beat. And it has never went away but you never hear about that. This thing is for real, sure but it has been the greatest spin in the history of man.

The avian flu didn't kill 100,000 people in the US. This isn't at all like that.

 

[Kung Fu Wang]

One of my students had recovered from it. Do you think it's safe for me to meet him?

Your thought?

 

[Gerry Seymour]

One of my students had recovered from it. Do you think it's safe for me to meet him?

Your thought?

From what I've read, if they've recovered, they should be safe. Possibly safer to meet with than someone who hasn't (so far as you know) had it yet.

 

[dvcochran]

The avian flu didn't kill 100,000 people in the US. This isn't at all like that.

CDC says avian killed about a million and 100,000 in the US. But is did mis-speak; I meant the swine flu of '08-'09.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

CDC says avian killed about a million and 100,000 in the US. But is did mis-speak; I meant the swine flu of '08-'09.

I wasn't able to find anything showing those stats in a quick search. In any case, I neglected to finish my sentence earlier: "...100,000 people in the US in 6 months."

 

[jobo]

I wasn't able to find anything showing those stats in a quick search. In any case, I neglected to finish my sentence earlier: "...100,000 people in the US in 6 months."

but thats not right its only 4 months, though theres absolutely no logic for projecting that forward as likely being 300,000 in 12 months

as the avian flu only lasted just over 6 months in total, there no reason to suspect this outbreak wont be on a similar time scale

 

[Gerry Seymour]

but thats not right its only 4 months, though theres absolutely no logic for projecting that forward as likely being 300,000 in 12 months

as the avian flu only lasted just over 6 months in total, there no reason to suspect this outbreak wont be on a similar time scale

Firstly, I didn't project anything to 300,000. You seem to have done that, yourself. The coronavirus outbreak is not over, and that's my point. We're at 100K in the US, and folks are still dying, though thankfully at a reducing rate. This thing is not over.

 

[Flying Crane]

I wasn't able to find anything showing those stats in a quick search. In any case, I neglected to finish my sentence earlier: "...100,000 people in the US in 6 months."

Four months. Early February until now.

The true death toll may be higher and may extend farther back in time. But those that we have counted have happened within four months.

 

[Flying Crane]

One of my students had recovered from it. Do you think it's safe for me to meet him?

Your thought?

That is as yet unknown, from my understanding. Last I heard it is unclear if the antibodies found in those who have recovered offer any immunity, and if so, for how long.

Typically in viruses this would be true. This particular virus seems to be throwing us a few curve balls.

 

[jobo]

Firstly, I didn't project anything to 300,000. You seem to have done that, yourself. The coronavirus outbreak is not over, and that's my point. We're at 100K in the US, and folks are still dying, though thankfully at a reducing rate. This thing is not over.

no you didn't project 300,000 as you'd got the time scale wrong, there doesn't seem much point mentioning 6 months unless you making the point that you can use that to project

 

[CB Jones]

One draw back with the re-opening we have run into is that during the isolation, Jacob was getting the daily workouts from a training center. Now that the training center is back open they don't send out the daily workouts to their fighters anymore.

Luckily he wrote down all the workouts so he can just use the ones he already has.

 

[Monkey Turned Wolf]

One draw back with the re-opening we have run into is that during the isolation, Jacob was getting the daily workouts from a training center. Now that the training center is back open they don't send out the daily workouts to their fighters anymore.

Luckily he wrote down all the workouts so he can just use the ones he already has.

I'm guessing it's a training center that he otherwise wouldn't have access to?

 

[CB Jones]

I'm guessing it's a training center that he otherwise wouldn't have access to?

Its 3 hours away. The owner and Jacob are good friends and has offered to let Jacob come train with them for a week in the past but we just haven't been able to do it due to scheduling conflicts.

 

[dvcochran]

Four months. Early February until now.

The true death toll may be higher and may extend farther back in time. But those that we have counted have happened within four months.

True death toll? That will never be possible. How will you ever account for the doctors and hospitals using the virus for unspecified cases? Since insurance will pay for these charges it is being used as a money maker. But it is skewing the numbers by a predicted 20%.

 

[jobo]

True death toll? That will never be possible. How will you ever account for the doctors and hospitals using the virus for unspecified cases? Since insurance will pay for these charges it is being used as a money maker. But it is skewing the numbers by a predicted 20%.

well the whole thing has disappeared here, there are still lock down rules but nobody with the exception of my sister is taking much notice,

from Monday we can have groups of up to six in the open air, someone should tell the numerous groups of 12 in the park

any pretence at social distancing has stopped which makes my sister very cross, as she order people to get on their own side of the path

 

[Gerry Seymour]

no you didn't project 300,000 as you'd got the time scale wrong, there doesn't seem much point mentioning 6 months unless you making the point that you can use that to project

You’re drawing an inference, and claiming it’s an implication.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

True death toll? That will never be possible. How will you ever account for the doctors and hospitals using the virus for unspecified cases? Since insurance will pay for these charges it is being used as a money maker. But it is skewing the numbers by a predicted 20%.

There’s no significant evidence of that happening in large numbers.

 

[KenpoMaster805]

If my studio reopens ill be Happy because im back in my karate class