History of Islamic Hostility and an Analysis of Current Threat Potential

[Bob Hubbard]

and this is horse crap

they have said, plain and clear

they hate all non muslims and non shariah compliant nations

and

they hate israel

we (rightly) stand by Israel, and we are not shariah compliant

so even if we were not involved in politics there, we would still be a target

More from "They".
See, if Christians would just unify like this.....like how the 2.2 Billion Muslims all got together and formed this evil single mind "Voltron" type thing....Then "They" could battle "Them" and "We" could watch, and it would be so ****ing cool. I mean, there would be explosions and ****, and things would go boom, and some of "Us" could drink beer, while "They" blow up, and it would rock so ****ing much man.

Yeah, thats a bit of sarcasm.

"they have said, plain and clear"

No, "they" didn't. Some of "them" did, but not "all", not "most" and certainly not "alot".

they hate all non muslims and non shariah compliant nations

No, "they" didn't. Some of "them" did, but not "all", not "most" and certainly not "alot".

they hate israel

Some of "them" do, but not "all", not "most" but maybe enough to qualify as "alot".

we (rightly) stand by Israel, and we are not shariah compliant

I disagree with the 1st part, agree with the second.
And...we never will be. That whole "Constitution" thing for 1.

so even if we were not involved in politics there, we would still be a target

Just like Canada is. There are so many attacks against Canadians, and inside Canada, I'm not sure how the country is hanging on.



Point black: Anyone who's argument revolves around "They" and "Them".....needs a better argument. Trying to win an Argument By Generalization is never a good tactic.

"Is says so in their book".
So what?
It says dumb **** in the Christian book too.
Smart people in either faith, ignore it.
Small %, don't, and do dumb ****.
In most cases they are caught, convicted and punished.

By sheer numbers, if there was a vast active movement, they (the whole of Muslimdom) could crush the West.

So, how many? (I asked this before)

http://hir.harvard.edu/why-iwhoi-hates-us
Monte and Princess Palmer’s 2003 study, At the Heart of Terror, suggests that an estimated four percent of Muslims in the world are Islamist fundamentalism fanatics, and only about .01 percent (about 120 thousand people) are militant jihadists. The goal of militant jihadists is an Islamic state, and the means employed toward that end include violent behavior, including terrorism. Militant jihadists come from different regions and countries that have differing priorities. They are recruited anywhere from war (such as the Afghan War against the Soviets) to mosques to madrasas to local organizations.
If militant and fanatic Muslims constitute an estimated .01 to four percent of the 1.2 billion Muslims of the world, the rest range from secularized to practicing to politicized, but, ultimately, are non-violent. Stephen Brooks cautions in his 2006 As Others See Us not to use “a shorthand label like the ‘Muslim perspective’, or impart homogeneity of opinion or belief to any collectivity.” Nonetheless, we can assess modal and varied views from random sample polling of countries in the Islamic world. With this distinction between militants and the “merely Muslim,” we can engage in a more nuanced analysis of the questions of whether, and why, “they hate us.”

Now, I'm adjusting the population number to current estimates, and using the larger number to boot. This will help see if there really is "A lot"

2.2 Billion people world wide follow Islam, according to stats.

4% of 2.2 Billion is: 88 Million
.01% is: 220,000.

So, there are world wide, about 200 thousand people we should be worried about.

US Population:314,000,000
US Muslim Population:1,800,000
4% Fanatic Rate:72,000
.01% Jihadist rate:180

The "They" that John, Bill and a bunch of people are worried about...they guys who will actually whip out guns and blow **** up....that's the 180.
The guys who will march around, scream their heads off, and be royal pains in the ***....that's the 72,000. Most of whom will shoot their mouths off and bluster, but ultimately back down in most confrontations. Or get busted as 'support'.

72,000 is "A Lot".

1 out of 18,000 IS in fact out to kill "Us".

But. it's a far cry from enough to qualify for "They" or "Them", which to me would have to be higher than 50%.

Lets look at Texas here.
25,145,561 Population of Texas (2010)
251,456 Est. Muslims in TX 1% US population
10,058 Fanatics 4.00%
25 Jihadists 0.01%

(the estimate is .6% nationwide, but I rounded up to magnify the risk a bit.)

This would suggest that across the entire state of Texas, there are -25- people who will stop at nothing to wipe it out. Against that you have all of the Texas Law Enforcement agencies (over 73,000 btw), and Chuck Norris.

The bad guys are out numbered.

Even at the "A Lot" level of 10,000. (Yes, 10k is a lot. When compared to the # of cops it's a 1:7 ratio) Doesn't mean they are no threat. Events like Ft. Hood show what 1 focused radical can do.

Doesn't mean there is no cause for alarm, that it's safe to leave the doors unlocked, or you shouldn't have your eyes open for trouble. Nope. Lock your doors, pay attention, and be prepared for -any- problem. It's highly unlikely you'll encounter an Islamic nutter, but it's also unlikely you'll get struck by lightening...and people die every year from that.

John, Bill, do you guys agree with this estimate? If not, higher or lower? Sources would be helpful if you have different numbers.

 

[Twin Fist]

you WISH it was because we were in thier business, at least that you can change

we cant change NOT being shariah compliant, and the thought of an enemy you cant reason with scares most people, so you convince yourselves it is some BS like "we are over there in thier business"

no, thats NOT it

the only way all those ******** countries and thier 6th century BS leaders (and by that i mean thier clerics) stay in power is by convincing the people that the bad guys are holding them down and living in sin

in this case, the bad guys are, supposedly, the US and Israel.

so we have to die, according to them

hell, they say so all the time, you just have to believe them

and Bob, just 19 accomplished a hell of a lot, didnt they?

motivation makes even a single man an enemy to be wary of

 

[Bob Hubbard]

19, who were here legally.
19 who -passed- airport screening, border checks, etc.
19 who succeeded because -every- hijacking prior was 'take me to Cuba' types.
19 who succeeded in 4 out of the -5- US based hijackings out of tens of thousands of flights in -20- years.

Tell me.
Do you wear a kevlar shirt when you leave the house? Put on a little chainmaile too?
Have bars on your windows?
Carry a gun, couple blades, and tracking device?
Wear ceramic armour jackets?
Glass block windows?

If not, why not?
Because you are at -more- risk of someone rolling you for your wallet, breaking into your house, etc.


I put up actual, real, factual numbers. Numbers based on intelligent research, public records, and more, all backed with sources, citations and actual math.

I was honestly more concerned about the comet or asteroid that recently missed Earth.

John, you're apparently upset. I'm not. I'm rather relaxed. Just spent 3 hours doing a catalog shoot. Was fun. Still not worried about Muslims. Because, until you can provide real numbers to debunk mine, until I see reliable third party research to cause concern, I refuse to let the tin-hat nutters on talk radio be my source for FUD.

So I'll ask again: Got different numbers? Got different sources?
Share. I'm open to correction.
Until then, all you have is Straw Man arguments.

Now you'll excuse me, those nudes won't edit themselves.

 

[CanuckMA]

.

Just like Canada is. There are so many attacks against Canadians, and inside Canada, I'm not sure how the country is hanging on.

We manage. It's that British Commonwealth thing, Stiff upper lip and all.

 

[Twin Fist]

if i were canadian, i might give a **** wether or not canada has gotten attacked

i am an american, and we HAVE been attacked, so i care about that

 

[Bob Hubbard]

So am I. Yes we were. Great. So do I.

What about the questions, numbers, etc?

Correct them, since I'm apparently in error. I await the correct data.

 

[granfire]

So am I. Yes we were. Great. So do I.

What about the questions, numbers, etc?

Correct them, since I'm apparently in error. I await the correct data.

Oh sheesh, you want like, FACTS?!

 

[Bob Hubbard]

http://newsblaze.com/story/20090221100148tsop.nb/topstory.html
The following ratios were compiled using data from 2004 National Safety Council Estimates, a report based on data from The National Center for Health Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau. In addition, 2003 mortality data from the Center for Disease Control was used.
-- You are 17,600 times more likely to die from heart disease than from a terrorist attack
-- You are 12,571 times more likely to die from cancer than from a terrorist attack
-- You are 11,000 times more likely to die in an airplane accident than from a terrorist plot involving an airplane
-- You are 1048 times more likely to die from a car accident than from a terrorist attack
--You are 404 times more likely to die in a fall than from a terrorist attack
-- You are 87 times more likely to drown than die in a terrorist attack
-- You are 13 times more likely to die in a railway accident than from a terrorist attack
--You are 12 times more likely to die from accidental suffocation in bed than from a terrorist attack
--You are 9 times more likely to choke to death on your own vomit than die in a terrorist attack
--You are 8 times more likely to be killed by a police officer than by a terrorist
--You are 8 times more likely to die from accidental electrocution than from a terrorist attack
-- You are 6 times more likely to die from hot weather than from a terrorist attack
SOURCE: The Progressive Review

Report Source: NCS

You are 8 times more likely to be killed by a police officer than by a terrorist.

Considering how many cops I hang out with....I may have to update my will.
I wonder if I can bribe them with Tim Hortons gift cards?

NOTE: At NO TIME Do I, Nor ANY of these statistics, numbers or reports state there is no risk or concern. All I and these reports do is put the threat into perspective, in comparison to all the other dangers we face.

-- You are 17,600 times more likely to die from heart disease than from a terrorist attack

So I am better served by spending my time exercising and eating right, than staying home afraid of the "Burka Babe" down the block.
I will however keep my eyes open for large deliveries of fertilizer and a UHaul.

 

[Ken Morgan]

Not a large number compared to others but 24 Canadians were killed on 9/11, 1 was too many.

As your allies, we had out Special Forces in Afghanistan early, and have had a battle group there ever since. Not large by comparison, but we are there.

This isn't a war against the USA or the west, the terrorists don’t give a **** about us, they want power in their own countries first, to do that they need an outside distraction or force that everyone can rally against, and that’s us. We are the scapegoat for them.

Seriously if they wanted to bomb the crap out of us, it would have happened. Look at the UK and the rest of Europe in the 60’s through to the 90”s, it’s really not that hard to do.

The Arab spring is terrifying the terrorists, because they know democracy, freedom, education and jobs, nullifies what they want.

We need to be vigilant against all threats, but at the same time we can’t crush our rights entrenched by our constitutions and common laws, just to stop a handful of nuts. We can’t cut off our nose to spite our face.

The Brits beat down the IRA for a few reasons, they took the war directly to those that carried out the attacks, but more importantly, they had an incredible intelligence gathering operation in place and lastly peace was always on the table if the IRA wanted to talk.

 

[Bob Hubbard]

Oh sheesh, you want like, FACTS?!

Something more tangible that the Straw Man, Digression, Red Herring, Misdirection, False Emphasis, Weasel Wording, Non Sequitur, etc. that we've gotten in all these arguments.

I mean, if I am wrong, it should be quite easy to find reliable data that will dispute mine, and debunk my conclusions.

 

[Bob Hubbard]

Something more tangible that the Straw Man, Digression, Red Herring, Misdirection, False Emphasis, Weasel Wording, Non Sequitur, etc. that we've gotten in all these arguments.

I mean, if I am wrong, it should be quite easy to find reliable data that will dispute mine, and debunk my conclusions.

Posted this before, repeating for data points.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001454.html
(Limiting to US Homeland, Islamic Terrorists. For outside that, please refer to the link.)
Terrorist Attacks in the U.S. or Against Americans

1993 Feb. 26, New York City: bomb exploded in basement garage of World Trade Center, killing 6 and injuring at least 1,040 others. In 1995, militant Islamist Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman and 9 others were convicted of conspiracy charges, and in 1998, Ramzi Yousef, believed to have been the mastermind, was convicted of the bombing. Al-Qaeda involvement is suspected.

2001 Sept. 11, New York City, Arlington, Va., and Shanksville, Pa.: hijackers crashed 2 commercial jets into twin towers of World Trade Center; 2 more hijacked jets were crashed into the Pentagon and a field in rural Pa. Total dead and missing numbered 2,9921: 2,749 in New York City, 184 at the Pentagon, 40 in Pa., and 19 hijackers. Islamic al-Qaeda terrorist group blamed. (See September 11, 2001: Timeline of Terrorism.)

2009
June 1, Little Rock, Arkansas: Abdulhakim Muhammed, a Muslim convert from Memphis, Tennessee, is charged with shooting two soldiers outside a military recruiting center. One is killed and the other is wounded. In a January 2010 letter to the judge hearing his case, Muhammed asked to change his plea from not guilty to guilty, claimed ties to al-Qaeda, and called the shooting a jihadi attack "to fight those who wage war on Islam and Muslims."

Dec. 25: A Nigerian man on a flight from Amsterdam to Detroit attempted to ignite an explosive device hidden in his underwear. The explosive device that failed to detonate was a mixture of powder and liquid that did not alert security personnel in the airport. The alleged bomber, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, told officials later that he was directed by the terrorist group Al Qaeda. The suspect was already on the government's watch list when he attempted the bombing; his father, a respected Nigerian banker, had told the U.S. government that he was worried about his son's increased extremism.

2010
May 1, New York City: a car bomb is discovered in Times Square, New York City after smoke is seen coming from a vehicle. The bomb was ignited, but failed to detonate and was disarmed before it could cause any harm. Times Square was evacuated as a safety precaution. Faisal Shahzad pleads guilty to placing the bomb as well as 10 terrorism and weapons charges.

May 10, Jacksonville, Florida: a pipe bomb explodes while approximately 60 Muslims are praying in the mosque. The attack causes no injuries.

Oct. 29: two packages are found on separate cargo planes. Each package contains a bomb consisting of 300 to 400 grams (11-14 oz) of plastic explosives and a detonating mechanism. The bombs are discovered as a result of intelligence received from Saudi Arabia's security chief. The packages, bound from Yemen to the United States, are discovered at en route stop-overs, one in England and one in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates.

2011
Jan. 17, Spokane, Washington: a pipe bomb is discovered along the route of the Martin Luther King, Jr. memorial march. The bomb, a "viable device" set up to spray marchers with shrapnel and to cause multiple casualties, is defused without any injuries.

NOTE: Listing is NOT current, and not 100%. Some events are missing.

 

[Bob Hubbard]

Posted this before, repeating for data points.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001454.html
(Limiting to US Homeland, Islamic Terrorists. For outside that, please refer to the link.)
Terrorist Attacks in the U.S. or Against Americans

NOTE: Listing is NOT current, and not 100%. Some events are missing.

This link BTW, has extensive listings.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents

You can go year by year, and for example it does showcase over 50 terrorist actions in January 2011 alone.
It only seems to list those events which went on, not those stopped prior to action, so there are several reports NOT listed including the several recent plots stopped in the US.

 

[Bob Hubbard]

Now, Bill, John, etc ARE correct.
There IS a risk.

Inside the US, it's not a big one.
If I visit Canada I'm more at risk from Ontario drivers, than Islamic Terrorists.
If I visit Mexico, the danger is the drug cartels, and in some parts gangs and thugs. Not Islamic Terrorists.
Cuba's pretty safe, though the Central America nations much less so due in good part to revolutionaries and drug traffickers.
South America's pretty safe in the cities, less so in the countryside, but not a huge risk.
Safety through out Europe is on par with the US, maybe a hair riskier in some parts, and much safer in others.
Japan's pretty safe. So is Australia and New Zealand.

Traveling through Northern or Eastern Africa, big risk.
SE Asia, big risk.
Wandering around like a tourist in Iraq, Afghanistan or Pakistan, as well as parts of India...good way to lose your head.
In some cases, this hasn't changed much in 20-40 years.
Egypt and Iraq are much less safe today than they were 10 years ago for example.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents

If I were to travel internationally, I would be much more concerned for my safety. When I visited Cozumel, I felt pretty safe. I was also advised not to wander too far, not to go down the back alleys, and not to ride the scooters. I saw armed soldiers on every corner though.
I felt more nervous on the I35 outside Dallas. (I still think Atlanta traffic is the most nuts I ever experienced though, though the iced over 401 in Ontario also was a pants dampener.)


Proper threat assessment requires one to recognize when there is a threat.
I do so.
It also however requires you to assess the danger, and respond accordingly.
It is my conclusions that, absent the addition of any new or differentiable data, the risk of being involved in an Islamic Terrorist Attack, within the US, is minimal and that effort is better spent preparing for and defending against a mugger, rapist, or crazed driver. Such preparations will also double as prep against the minimal ITA, should it occur.

Of course, massive ecological, environmental or other such mass-effect attacks, are near impossible to defend against, however all are again quite unlikely to occur.

 

[Brian King]

Bob Hubbard wrote:

"Proper threat assessment requires one to recognize when there is a threat.
I do so.
It also however requires you to assess the danger, and respond accordingly.
It is my conclusions that, absent the addition of any new or differentiable data, the risk of being involved in an Islamic Terrorist Attack, within the US, is minimal and that effort is better spent preparing for and defending against a mugger, rapist, or crazed driver. Such preparations will also double as prep against the minimal ITA, should it occur."

So do you Bob? Do you spend time preparing for and defending against a mugger, rapist, or crazed driver? How much? So many do not prepare at all for any violent situations, they rationalize that it wont happen to them or their families or doesn't happen in this city or this part of town. People confronted with violence often will claim that their was nothing that they could do, happened suddenly out of nowhere, never expected it.... They do not plan and hope that nothing happens. Like countries that follow isolationist foreign policies, hoping that their neighbors will be peaceful. The thought is nice but has yet to be proven in human history.

I see the argument that you are putting forth describing the numbers, such as they are. Sort of like the numbers on gun violence. How many times has a gun been used in violence, how many times has a gun been used to prevent violence, how many times has firearms been used to end violence. Not easy crunching the numbers accurately. Often politics determines how crimes are reported/recorded. When doing threat assessments it is not enough to look at the mere numbers. Threat assessment is more art than science in my opinion and will very not only from situation to situation but the two of us could be standing on the very same street corner and come up with very different threat assessments based on not only our experiences but our also our capabilities. What might be considered a threat to one is seen as nothing by the other. So to do a proper threat assessment the person, family, corporation, community for who the assessment is given must be given a weight. Another factor that should be entered into the calculation is what is the cost if the threat succeeds. Example, get caught unaware by a mugger and you lose your watch, get caught unaware by a rapist get violently violated. Not all crimes carry the same threat or cost yet in your calculations you are weighing them all the same, need to recalculate that in my opinion. A proper threat assessment will also take into consideration the capabilities of the threat. For example a group of anarchists rioting will break windows and burn cars but if they kill anybody it will likely be by accident or negligence while a militant group seeking to overthrow the government might be more willing to use deadly force to accomplish their goals. So the willingness as well as the capabilities of the possible threats should be taken into consideration and given weight.

The above is just a few minutes of thinking about the issue. There are courses of study on threat assessment, there are companies that specialize on threat assessment both the type of window checkers and camera placers and those companies that go out into the communities and gather intelligence and assess. Governments have many different agencies that gather intelligence and stats on violence and threats and then many others with-in those agencies that gather those intelligence's and form threat assessments with other agencies and departments forming their own threat assessments.

I feel your frustration with posting numbers of attacks and not getting any feedback, but perhaps with the above in mind you can understand the reluctance? As individuals we are not required or mandated to do any kind of threat assessments nor are many trained to do so. People can spend their whole life in condition white and never know the difference. Others might spend their whole lives in condition red and never know the difference. With the changes in lifestyles and risks if wrong, some will reassess their assessments after marriage or having a family or having personal experiences with criminal violence. Some will not recognize the threats as threats until they have been educated on them. Not all groups of young men are gang bangers but if you get a MS13 house on your block you soon learn to recognize gang bangers from wanna-bes. That education can come at least two different ways, face to face experience or by doing research on what is going on in the area. It is important and much more to be taken into consideration than a incomplete list from wikipedia. But it is a decent start.

Regards
Brian King

 

[Sensei Payne]

and this is horse crap
they have said, plain and clear
they hate all non muslims and non shariah compliant nations

and

they hate israel
we (rightly) stand by Israel, and we are not shariah compliant
so even if we were not involved in politics there, we would still be a target

Clearly Hate Speech.

Also, how can you be a conservative and want to keep sending forgein aid to Isreal? That seems pretty libral to me.

and Bob, just 19 accomplished a hell of a lot, didnt they?

If your refering to the 9/11 attacks...those 19 were merely patsies...they weren't muslim jihadists...because if they were, they were living in sin all the way up to there last breath....they wouldn't be good canidates to be martyrs..with there strip club visits and sex toy orders, etc etc.

As your allies, we had out Special Forces in Afghanistan early, and have had a battle group there ever since. Not large by comparison, but we are there.

Wait...Canada has an Army? Not only an Army, but a Special Forces?----lol, just kidding Ken.

 

[BooBoo]

You'd think the average American would have far more real and fundamental problems to worry about in the USA than the Muslim boogeyman. Things like the collapsing debt-saturated economy, the outsourcing of America's great industrial base to foreign countries, the bailout of the ultra-rich financial institutions at the expense of taxpayers, the control of the banking system and issuance of money and credit by a small clique of parasitic financiers who make profits by speculating on and creating volatility in the real economy, gang violence, delinquency, collapsing infrastructure - or the fact that the land of the 'free' has the largest prison population in the world! Or what about the emerging police state and the increased surveillance of citizens?

Do the paranoid amongst you have any idea how your forefathers fought to free America's economy from the domination of England and English financiers? Do you know about the Populist movement, about Andrew Jackson's and Abraham Lincoln's struggles against the shadow government that are the de-facto rulers of the USA (and by proxy most of the world )today??

And who was it that mentioned the US' friend Israel? I have to disagree with Bob Hubbard on one point in his otherwise excellent posts. Most Muslims (and many Palestinian Christians) dislike or despise Israel - yet that's on a popular level. Many people here are unaware of the covert cooperation between Israel and certain Arab states (like Saudi Arabia, the main financier of the most extreme and violent brand of Wahabbi/Al-Qaeda Islam). Funny isn't it? It kind of puts a damper on your nice clean black and white narrative.

Did you know that Israel, deliberatly and for 2 hours, attacked the USS Liberty in 1967 killing 35+ American sailors (you can google the survivors' website)? Or did you know that Israel has the largest and most sophisticated spy ring operating in the US? Did you know that an Israeli company affiliated with the Israeli government, controls digital switchboards in the US? Did you per chance pay attention to the 29 standing ovations that Israeli PM Netanyahu received by the grovelling US congress during his US visit? Did you know that Israel has been repeatedly accused of selling highly sensitive American military equipment to China? Did you know that an Israeli spy (Jonathan Pollard) is currently imprisoned in the USA for spying on behalf of Israel and, indirectly, the former Soviet Union? So much for the 'great' friend. You'd think they'd be nicer given that their survival rests solely on generous American aid, tax deductible charitable donations, soft loans,etc...

Where does that fit into your nice tidy little US vs. them narrative?

 

[Sensei Payne]

We need to cut fogein aid completely from Isreal.

and I am proud that my senator, that I happened to have voted for, is working toward it.

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/rand-paul-we-should-end-all-foreign-aid-to-countries-including-israel/

 

[CanuckMA]

Also, how can you be a conservative and want to keep sending forgein aid to Isreal? That seems pretty libral to me.

It's not so much aid as a subsidy for the US defense contractors. Most of the aid comes with sttrings that it must be used to buy military equipment from the US.

 

[Bob Hubbard]

So do you Bob? Do you spend time preparing for and defending against a mugger, rapist, or crazed driver? How much?

For me Brian, I've done enough so far. I don't carry, I don't wear body armor, and I don't drive a tank. I avoid 'bad' neighborhoods at 'bad' times, I don't flash money, and I avoid confrontations as much as I can. I've managed to drive cross country several times without incident, and even got through air port security without problem. Beyond that, I keep my eyes and ears open, pay attention to whats going on around me, and trust my 'spider sense' to know when to move. No drilling, no living in a bomb shelter, no hanging out with the 'minutemen', no worrying about the red/muslim/dem/flavoroftheday menace.

 

[Bob Hubbard]

Where does that fit into your nice tidy little US vs. them narrative?

Not my 'us vs them' narrative.